Australia and Off Shore Bookmakers

why-you-should-bet-on-australian-sports-xlGustov Johansson from Sweden doesn’t mind a bet. He reckons that Norrköping are a sure thing against Helsingborg in the Sweedish Allsvenskan soccer league. So he decides to make a $100 bet at Crownbet, an Australian owned and located company. Unfortunately, his bet wasn’t successful and he losses the $100 after Helsingborg went on a goal kicking rampage. “Jävla” says Gustov.

But what exactly happens to that money? Crownbet pocket the $100 and then over the long term will pay the Australian government part of it through taxes. How much do Crownbet give to the Sweedish governement?


Despite it being sweedish money that was bet, the transaction occured in Australia, so Sweeden get didily-squat, and poor Gustov is $100 poorer for the effort.

So why then are the Australian government thinking about banning international bookmakers who dont pay tax? If Australian bookmakers dont pay tax on winnings to international governments, then why should international bookmakers pay tax to Australian governments?

I thought the liberal, current Austarlian governemnt were all about free trade and open borders? Because as most liberals will say, free trade encourages growth and competition.

That is 100% true. Punters are turning to international bookmakers because they can provide a better service than the Australian bookmakers. When Tabcorp say that ”Unlicensed offshore operators are not regulated to Australian standards and that poses risks to consumers and the integrity of sport and racing”, what they really mean is ”we want to stop Australians betting overseas because they are competition”.

Yes thats right, Australian bookmakers want international bookmakers banned because they encourage growth and competition. Greater competition means that the Australian bookmakers will have to tighten their screws. Australian bookmakers are against free trade and want closed borders. The liberal government should be strongly against this.

And as punters, we should also be strongly against the ban of international bookmakers. We want free trade, competition and growth. The ability for us to spend our money however we see fit, and not be told by the government what cornershops we can and can’t buy from, should be high on our agendas.

Imagine if the government told us that we can’t buy anything from ebay that came from China because they dont pay Australian tax. There would be outrage. So outraged us punters should be if any restrictions on international bookmakers occur.

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Sportpunter’s NFL Season 2015 analysis

nfl-online-e1427242784519The NFL Season is set to start this Thursday and once again we will be providing predictions for the entire season. Whilst our betting history shows some really good figures – making 1.8% ROI betting the line over five seasons and making 5.8% ROI betting totals, with each season being a winner – analysis of the results prove that there is more to it than that.

We stated before the start of last season, that by waiting until round 6 to bet totals, and a little later for line betting can drastically increase your profit over the season. And had you followed this the you would have made an incredible 15% ROI last year betting on totals.

In fact, we’ve decided to do some analysis into how the model has gone over the five years based on round. Shown here are the results for totals betting and line betting alike.

It shows that betting from approximately rounds 3 to 6 show the greatest profit. That said betting from the word go isn’t that much less than waiting a few rounds. When looking at how the model has gone when waiting until round 6 (as previously prescribed), it shows a significant increase in profit in all years but 2011. For three years in a row the model has made over 13% ROI each year.

There can be no doubt that the totals model for NFL is indeed very profitable.

As for line betting, the results aren’t quite as good but still very profitable indeed. It seems that line betting is a little more variable. A 1.8% ROI profit could have been made betting from word go, however if one was to wait until round 11, then a 5.8% ROI profit could have been made and a little higher profit betting only the second half of the year.

Analysis by year shows that when waiting until round 11, 2011 and 2013 making massive profits in excess of 20% ROI+, however 2012 losing by about the same margin. 2010 made 4% and last year broke around even. Such variability is understandable when we are talking about less than 100 bets a year waiting for round 11.

That being said, totals betting shows clearly amazing results, whilst line betting is profitable, although somewhat more variable.

Hopefully we will have another fantastically profitable 2015.
Subscription information is shown here for the 2015 season.

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Australia to change Interactive Gambling Act

online-gambling-law-australiaThe Australian Interactive Gambling Act that was passed in 2001 by then Prime Minister John Howard is in dire need of an update. The Act was created before smartphones were common place, and when the internet was in its infancy.

In play gambling was determined to be illegal, unless one rang up the bookmaker. Seems like a strange rule indeed, but one of the reasons why this was the case, is that the government were scared that digital TV could display odds whilst a sports game was in-play, and that TV viewers could simply use their remote controls to place a bet.

Kerry Packer was all over it.

So this clearly outdated law was put in place. The world has changed remarkably since. And recently there has been a push for the Interactive Gambling Act to be updated. Makes Sense.
Financial Counselling Australia recently brought out a report about problem gambling, concluding amongst other things, that bookmakers giving credit to punters should be outlawed and that every bookmaker should have a opt out option. I’m all for that.

But it seems that whenever laws need to be changed, vested interests come to the fore. More recently, at least according to media reports, limiting or banning Australian punters from betting offshore could well be put into the equation. I don’t need to tell you what bookmakers we are talking about either – just think Asia, Caribbean, USA and Europe, probably in that order.

Tabcorp has come out swinging. They said that “The rise of unlicensed offshore betting in Australian racing and sport needs to be addressed.” Sure but why? They continue, “Unlicensed offshore operators are not regulated to Australian standards and that poses risks to consumers and the integrity of sport and racing”

Ahh so I get it. Tabcorp are only interested in the welfare of Australian punters? The same punters that they earn a living taking money off? The same punters that they will happily allow problem gamblers bet their life away? The same punters that they are happy to give whatever credit they want to punters who clearly have no means to pay it back?

Give me a break. Tabcorp, and presumably all other Australian bookmakers, want to restrict Australian punters access to offshore bookmakers because they want to eradicate competition. Nothing more, nothing less. For them it is a pure business decision.

Sure they might be slightly upset that these offshore companies, whilst not being allowed to advertise in Australia, are not paying their due taxes to the government, but answer this question, Why would a punter in Australia bet offshore anyway?

The answer is simple. They provide a better service.

Either their odds are better, or they are allowed to bet, or they are not banned or limited. If Australian corporate bookmakers didn’t ban, limit or reduce odds for Australian punters, then I’d say we’d be quite happy betting into the Australian websites. However this is not the case.

Corporate bookmaking Australia wants to ban successful Australian punters and then ban them from betting anywhere else. How’s that for a free country?

Clearly the Interactive Gambling Act needs to be changed and updated, but if only the Corporate bookmakers have a say in it, this is no doubt what will happen.

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College Football Model

American Football Close up on Field with yard lines in the distance

American Football Close up on Field with yard lines in the distance

The College Football season has started, and once again we will be providing predictions for free. Last year was our first year and results were mixed. Whilst h2h betting and line betting lost, totals came out slightly ahead. We’ve done a quick analysis of line betting and totals and results are shown below.

Totals betting seemed to work better with a minimum overlay of 7.5%. This would make the results record a 1.5% ROI. Keep in mind that we are talking about one season here and only 306 bets, so it is hard to say with any certainty about the patterns that we are attempting to find to maximise our profits. Interestingly, we can also look at the days since the first date of the season.

In the first 2 weeks (up until day 14), the totals model was losing at a rate of 21% ROI from 65 bets. After this is showed great form in the middle season making 6.2% ROI from 241 bets from week 3 onwards. This is good news, it could well be that the model takes a little while to get used to the new teams each season. Keep note that the last 2 sections, over 2 months since the season started, recorded losses , but with a sample size of just 43, it’s hard to draw any concrete conclusions here.

Unfortunately line betting failed to show any real profits from anyway of looking at it. We will continue to monitor and make predictions for head to head, line and totals betting, and hopefully do better at it this season. Analysis of totals and line betting are shown in these links.

Predictions are free, and the competition starts today! Details here

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MLB Season set to start

mlb-scheduleThe American Baseball season (MLB) starts on Sunday the 5th of April and once again Sportpunter are providing predictions. Last year was the first year that our model went live and the results were fantastic, especially in totals betting.

Shown below is our analysis of the year that has gone, with totals betting first. Some people might want to analyse only the figures from when the model started giving predictions live (from 7/5/14), however I believe a greater reflection of how the model has gone will include up until the start of last year’s season, which is shown first.

11.8538 $4,346.22 -$475.96-11%
1.851.9170 $19,790.57 -$281.31-1%
1.91.92582 $9,371.17 $940.4710%
1.9251.9578 $9,036.61 $1,240.14 14%
1.951.975127 $14,100.37 $349.712%
1.975261 $6,652.50 $978.2515%
22.05226 $25,237.01 $4,319.99 17%
2.052.1119 $14,299.52 $2,456.89 17%
2.12.1535 $3,784.10 $1,013.90 27%
2.151020 $2,943.54 $1,309.35 44%
956 $109,561.61 $11,851.43 11%
0.50.52573 $4,797.13 $1,203.11 25%
0.5250.5375109 $8,405.63 $1,112.28 13%
0.53750.55125 $10,945.58 $2,825.51 26%
0.550.56134 $12,743.37 -$5.010%
0.560.575192 $20,246.63 $3,085.10 15%
0.5750.5875108 $13,259.85 -$157.42-1%
0.58750.688 $13,355.95 -$21.060%
0.60.62578 $14,796.80 $1,968.86 13%
0.6251041 $10,441.50 $1,689.31 16%
956 $109,561.61 $11,851.43 11%
00.06105 $6,008.86 $414.727%
0.060.07129 $8,751.96 -$46.79-1%
0.070.0899 $7,958.78 $1,303.07 16%
0.080.0986 $7,627.48 $434.506%
0.090.174 $7,288.95 $466.526%
0.10.125181 $20,935.62 $2,640.70 13%
0.1250.1596 $13,382.22 $1,218.35 9%
0.150.2118 $21,012.41 $3,268.94 16%
0.20.2547 $10,402.29 -$594.42-6%
0.251021 $6,193.04 $2,745.84 44%
956 $109,561.61 $11,851.43 11%
Since 7/5/14
11.8532 $3,532.54 -$418.37-12%
1.851.9143 $16,522.32 $949.416%
1.91.92561 $6,720.22 $1,569.42 23%
1.9251.9546 $5,198.74 $552.0311%
1.951.975115 $12,808.17 -$25.010%
1.975245 $4,671.86 $188.984%
22.05175 $19,024.43 $2,273.49 12%
2.052.181 $9,566.19 $561.956%
2.12.1515 $1,608.14 -$40.97-3%
716 $79,993.94 $5,862.78 7%
0.50.52552 $3,162.19 $663.3121%
0.5250.537581 $5,981.78 $11.680%
0.53750.5588 $7,283.20 $1,451.28 20%
0.550.56101 $9,437.26 -$786.77-8%
0.560.575153 $16,018.51 $1,622.57 10%
0.5750.587586 $10,237.95 -$633.76-6%
0.58750.666 $9,849.64 $452.905%
0.60.62559 $10,817.39 $1,071.17 10%
0.6251029 $7,134.45 $1,955.65 27%
718 $80,150.16 $5,917.71 7.4%
00.0687 $4,973.90 $494.1810%
0.060.07104 $7,020.64 -$373.20-5%
0.070.0877 $6,221.14 $1,053.23 17%
0.080.0967 $6,011.34 -$161.03-3%
0.090.156 $5,563.27 -$262.71-5%
0.10.125128 $14,952.39 $2,022.61 14%
0.1250.1574 $10,357.82 $427.284%
0.150.286 $15,577.51 $1,680.80 11%
0.20.2529 $6,474.05 -$78.66-1%
0.251010 $2,998.10 $1,115.21 37%
718 $80,150.16 $5,917.71 7%

As you can see from above, the totals model has done extremely well. From 956 bets it has made 11% ROI which is massive considering the large amount of turnover possible. At first glance it would seem that betting on odds under 1.90 might not be profitable, but this could well be due to a small sample size, and I wouldn’t look too much into that.

What is promising is that larger overlays have resulted in larger profits which is a good indication that we are modelling the data well. The model seemed to go better early in the season than later.

H2H betting was different. Before we went live, the h2h model suffered badly in the opening month, however since we went live on 7/5/15, it made 3% ROI from 906 bets. It would seem betting on odds lower than 2.10 was no profitable however once again this was a small sample size.

11.8541 $3,894.74 -$599.95-15%
1.852104 $9,357.18 -$607.20-6%
22.192 $8,078.10 -$610.50-8%
2.12.2143 $12,130.31 $1,151.81 9%
2.22.3155 $13,152.82 $863.557%
2.32.4147 $12,260.37 $643.195%
2.42.5130 $10,654.11 -$1,140.18 -11%
2.52.65150 $13,661.56 -$377.43-3%
2.652.85100 $9,707.37 $1,383.73 14%
2.851072 $7,143.16 -$489.50-7%
1134 $100,039.72 $217.520%
00.450 $3,494.67 -$600.78-17%
0.40.42597 $6,680.18 $982.4415%
0.4250.45132 $9,617.66 $1,176.73 12%
0.450.475233 $19,591.29 -$41.070%
0.4750.5176 $15,115.73 -$709.75-5%
0.50.525191 $18,241.20 $52.920%
0.5250.5593 $9,176.16 -$816.77-9%
0.550.57588 $9,962.11 $1,075.76 11%
0.5750.642 $4,520.34 $51.641%
0.61032 $3,640.38 -$953.60-26%
1134 $100,039.72 $217.520%
00.06122 $5,964.95 $1,650.12 28%
0.060.07121 $7,109.54 $307.364%
0.070.08127 $8,173.63 -$290.06-4%
0.080.0992 $6,414.14 -$724.60-11%
0.090.191 $7,013.12 $205.193%
0.10.125179 $15,509.71 -$175.23-1%
0.1250.15123 $12,575.62 -$659.58-5%
0.150.2152 $17,860.44 $754.724%
0.20.2574 $10,249.03 -$1,795.17 -18%
0.251053 $9,169.54 $944.7710%
1134 $100,039.72 $217.520%
Since 7/5/14
11.8522 $2,014.55 -$305.31-15%
1.85275 $6,473.51 -$19.850%
22.171 $6,395.37 -$794.22-12%
2.12.2121 $10,493.00 $1,528.31 15%
2.22.3129 $11,277.59 $1,063.72 9%
2.32.4122 $10,174.08 $1,650.08 16%
2.42.5106 $9,003.94 -$1,124.94 -12%
2.52.65118 $10,967.58 -$1,637.87 -15%
2.652.8586 $8,518.00 $1,506.63 18%
2.851056 $5,742.07 $662.6312%
906 $81,059.69 $2,529.18 3%
00.439 $2,740.64 -$183.70-7%
0.40.42576 $5,240.23 $571.6111%
0.4250.45105 $7,923.16 $449.156%
0.450.475195 $16,756.90 $819.865%
0.4750.5144 $12,101.96 -$302.84-3%
0.50.525155 $15,342.38 $751.235%
0.5250.5580 $8,101.00 -$690.64-9%
0.550.57573 $8,556.03 $1,478.52 17%
0.5750.624 $2,520.99 $211.018%
0.61016 $1,840.21 -$638.83-35%
907 $81,123.50 $2,465.37 3%
00.0691 $4,355.66 $1,255.21 29%
0.060.0788 $5,040.71 $469.389%
0.070.08100 $6,380.88 -$620.86-10%
0.080.0973 $5,044.15 -$642.68-13%
0.090.173 $5,624.55 $400.087%
0.10.125139 $11,978.96 $204.362%
0.1250.15102 $10,308.79 -$52.01-1%
0.150.2131 $15,423.75 $1,122.89 7%
0.20.2560 $8,378.27 -$706.45-8%
0.251049 $8,523.97 $1,099.26 13%
906 $81,059.69 $2,529.18 3%

Please note that half way through the season, an upgrade of pitcher ratings was included so that pitcher ratings can change more quickly and dynamically for new pitchers. Preseason data was not taken into account, and it will be this year, so hopefully we should be able to see better h2h results, especially early on in the season.

Either way, it has been a standout year for Sportpunter’s MLB model, and I am very excited to get on board for when it starts this Sunday.

To sign up or view the betting history for MLB click here to the Sportpunter MLB website.

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AFL Season set to start this Thursday

614969-8cf86840-461e-11e4-9bb4-d8c2ecaf4782The AFL season starts this Thursday and once again Sportpunter will be making predictions for it every weekend. No doubt that the AFL is our number 1 model, and the results are there to prove it.

As shown on this betting history link, we have made 12.5% ROI from 1431 bets since 2005 betting on the line, and 11% ROI from the last 2258 bets betting h2h since 1999. More recently the results have even been better with 16.2% ROI made betting the line in the last 6 years.

Last year we wrote an article saying that the period where most profit is made is in the first few weeks, so now would be a great time to get on board before the season starts on Thursday.

Get all the info and subscription option on the Sportpunter AFL webpage

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NHL records very low scoring totals in March 2015

NHL: Detroit Red Wings at St. Louis BluesWith NHL teams getting less and less power plays, the total number of goals has decreased dramatically this month. The average number of goals per match this month has been 5.20 which is the equal second lowest since 1989, after 5.17 was averaged in 2002 and 5.2 in 1998.

We’ve previously talked about how the number of goals per year has been a decreasing trend, as well as the decreasing trends in April and onwards, the link for this is shown here. However, it seems that this year, the total number has decreased quicker than normal.

Here is a table of the average goals since 2007, the percent above 4.5, 5 and 5.5 goals. Also included in the number above the bookmakers line.

As you can see the average goals decrease quite dramatically in month 4 (april) and onwards, however the percentage above the quoted bookmaker line doesn’t decrease, indicating that the bookmakers line lowers late in the season along with the totals goals scored.


However, in 2014/15 this has changed dramatically this month. A massive decline in total goals was scored in march this season, and the amount of times that the total went over is only at 42%. Thus indicating that the decline in goals scored has been quicker than the bookmakers odds. This is shown in the table below:


Whilst Sportpunter’s NHL model had an amazing start, (18% ROI from the first 200 bets in 20 weeks), it has recently fallen away due to a larger number of over bets. The overs, are not winning as shown above, and a correction, or a change to the model to more quickly dynamically change to different conditions should be looked at, and that’s just what I’ll do.

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NRL Season 2015 starts this weekend

2013 NRL Grand Final - Roosters v Sea EaglesThe NRL season 2015 starts this Thursday, and if last years results are anything to go by, you should sign up. 2014, saw Sportpunter completely upgrade our model and have a player based approach. This especially helped during origin times, and most definitely increased the profits across the board.

H2h betting was once again as per normal the standout, making 10.9% ROI from 150 bets. Big outside winners came throughout the season including a big win on St .George in round 2 (3.56), a standout win on Newcastle in round 22 (4.58) and a massive win on Gold Coast in round 3 at odds of 2.73 when we rated them a 73% chance to win.

Full betting histories and subscriptions are available on the Sportpunter NRL webpage, so make sure that you sign up. Details here:

AFL preseason predictions are up

The AFL preseason has already started, and predictions are available for every game based on the squads available. Of course the pre season isn’t the same as regular and we recommend you bet with caution (e.g. Hawthorn had 3 last withdrawals of their best defender, midfielder and forward last weekend). However, plenty of people in the past have found a good edge with the preseason, and if you sign up to Sportpunter’s AFL now, then you too can get the predictions for this weekend. Details here:

NBA Model winnings

The NBA model has been on absolute fire for the past 2 months. Head to head betting has made an amazing 10.3% ROI this year from 544 bets, whilst line betting has made an incredible 7.4% ROI. Last week we scored some massive h2h wins with New York getting up against Toronto at odds of 8.04, and again against Detroit at odds of 12.25. New Orleans also defeated Toronto at odds of 3.69 for a very nice payout.

We’ve had 6 winning weeks in a row for line betting, and whilst totals betting hasn’t performed that well this year (although the first month was fantastic), it made a good comeback last weekend. With the model traditionally performing weaker in the second half of the season, it might be the best time to join up, but keep the NBA in the back of your thoughts for the next season

Details are shown here:

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Pinnacle Sports sold and their future

pinnacle-sports-review-logoIt appears that PinnacleSports has been sold to undisclosed buyers. Whilst rumours are going around that it is a Las Vegas firm, evidence suggests a UK or Ireland company.

And this makes perfect sense. It wasn’t long ago that Pinnacle had to close its doors to all UK customers, and hence would have lost a big chunk of their turnover. Perhaps it’s only a matter of time until other countries follow the same suit. Being based in Curacao – which is in the Caribbean Sea – probably didn’t help their cause, and if they were going to stay ahead of the bunch, then a move, or change of direction really had to occur.

I said, stay ahead of the bunch, because we at Sportpunter rate PinnacleSports the number 1 bookmaker in the globe. Out list of recommended bookies is shown here.

And why not? With up to 102% markets, and their statement that they never ban or limit anyone, there is really no other bookie that comes close.

So how do PinnacleSports survive with such rules? Simple. They don’t advertise offline, which helps keep their costs down, and they rely on high turnover and smart gamblers to make the markets as accurate as possible. Their lines move instantly on any decent bet, more so on some punters than others, and they release odds with small maximum bets early, and increase the amount one can bet until the start of the match, when the odds are more efficient.

But with the UK out of the market, their turnover will be a lot less, and as stated before, if more countries say no to Pinnacle, then their whole model is in ruin. As I said, they rely on high turnover and large limits to smart gamblers.

The sports gambling industry would take a massive blow if PinnacleSports were to exit the scene. Not only because the smart money would have to bet elsewhere and accept lower limits at worse odds, but also because there are many other bookmaker sites that rely on PinnacleSports to frame their own market (Matchbook for one).

So what will happen to Pinnacle from now on? Will it continue to run as is? Well if they can get the UK back, then increased turnover will only help Pinnacle as well as helping out everyone who bets there. But considering that it was sold, most likely, to someone either in the UK or Ireland, will the new owners inforce UK and Ireland bookmaking techniques?

This of course means, banning successful punters and give out bad odds.

Banning successful punters, will at first give PinnacleSports a greater profit, however, without the successful punters framing markets, it will mean that the next string of punters will have better odds to work with and hence it’s hard to say if Pinnacle will increase or decrease profit with this technique.

Having worse odds, maybe equivalent to the standard bookmaker, will make Pinnacle less enticing for smart punters. Whilst the percent made on turnover will increase for Pinnacle, the amount of turnover will decrease, most likely netting the bookmaker with a lower profit overall.

But there is one thing that PinnacleSports could do that will increase turnover.


Holding a licence in the UK (and also Australia, the slowly opening USA and other countries) will welcome back the UK customers, and increase their customers. Surely Pinnacle (who pride themselves on not advertising), will have to come to the conclusion that advertising in countries where they are allowed to operate, will only help their bottom line. Tom Waterhouse is an obvious example here.

Ohh, and a website that doesn’t just look like a list of numbers (us pro punters love it, but it’s boring to the average joe), and a social media onslaught (sporstbet have to be the best in the world at this), would help every little bit.

So let’s hope that the new owners of PinnacleSports have the right idea. Keep the same business model, but increase on it, by obtaining access in the UK, and hopefully a little bit of advertising.

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Rugby Union’s Super 15s 2015

Rob_Horne55Rugby Union’s Super 15s tournament is set to start this weekend, and once again Sportpunter will be providing predictions every weekend.

This will be our 13th season in a row that we are released predictions for S15, and if history repeats itself we should have a very good year indeed. Despite a small season, we have made in total 9.2% ROI from 821 bets over the span that we have been predicting for, with the last two years being in the top 3 as far as profits go.

Matches in which we did well at included a round 6 match between the Western Force and the Chiefs. We had the force a 47.4% chance to win, and at odds of 3.77 it paid very well indeed. That very round the Lions defeated the reds at odds of 2.31 (we rated them a 66% chance to win), and the Hurricanes defeated the Crusaders at odds of 4.01 to cap off a fantastic weekend.

As per normal a lot of the profits came in the early rounds, so make sure that you get in early to get the winning predictions.

Subscriptions are now available on the website. See here for more details:

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