Sportpunter

The AFL 2016 season is set to begin today. Well at least the pre-season is. And once again Sportpujnter will be providing predictions for the upcoming season.

Predictions for tonights match between Hawthorn and Carlton is now on the website, but I do issue caution on betting these pre-season matches. Despite the model taking into consideration who is playing, coaches will often play a player out of regular position, or for a limited time on field to test a few options for the upcoming season. New and untried players will probably get a longer run on the field than normal. Carlton have listed a near full lineup, with only Patrick Cripps the obvious non inclusion. Whilst Hawthorn will be without key forwards Roughhead, Gunston and Rioli, as well as Shields, Burgoyne and Frawley. Results from pre season matches will not be included in our betting history.

Sportpunter’s AFL Model has long been providing profits. In fact 2015 was our 17th year of predicting AFL results. All years have seen a substantial profit with the exception of 2006 and 2008 which had a  loss. On average we have gained 11% ROI over the years.

We have made 12.1% ROI from 1589 bets since 2005 betting on the line, and 10.7% ROI from the last 2366 bets betting h2h since 1999. More recently the results have even been better with 15.5% ROI made betting the line in the last 7 years All the betting histories are shown here.

With 2015 now behind us, we are now offering subscriptions for 2016. Click here to view Sportpunter’s AFL model in 2016 and lets have another great year in Sportpunter’s most favourite model.

The NBA season is set to start on Wednesday, and we’ve decided to analyse the model over the five years that we have been providing predictions for. In total line betting has made 1.6% ROI and totals 2.1% ROI. This might seem modest at first sight, but those who have bet the NBA model know very well that it performs significantly better than this in the first half of the season before fading away a little.

Shown below is a table showing how the line model has gone over the five years with the cumulative profit per week. IT shows that if one was to bet the first 7 weeks only, then you would have maximised the profit at a rate of 8.2% ROI. Pretty impressive stuff.

Weeks	#Bets	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI	Cumulative Profit	Cumulative %ROI
0	144	$35,097.38	$3,770.76	10.7%	$3,770.76	10.7%
1	140	$31,262.10	$1,687.61	5.4%	$5,458.37	8.2%
2	141	$31,693.31	$544.37	1.7%	$6,002.74	6.1%
3	163	$31,697.51	$4,346.30	13.7%	$10,349.04	8.0%
4	159	$32,347.38	$2,576.83	8.0%	$12,925.87	8.0%
5	190	$35,919.29	$4,999.44	13.9%	$17,925.31	9.1%
6	156	$27,885.00	$949.03	3.4%	$18,874.33	8.4%
7	162	$27,684.63	$2,019.23	7.3%	$20,893.57	8.2%
8	149	$24,695.55	-$536.43	-2.2%	$20,357.14	7.3%
9	155	$26,130.77	-$1,898.55	-7.3%	$18,458.58	6.1%
10	166	$26,827.77	-$3,681.82	-13.7%	$14,776.76	4.5%
11	154	$26,807.63	-$4,103.90	-15.3%	$10,672.86	3.0%
12	157	$24,779.09	-$724.31	-2.9%	$9,948.55	2.6%
13	135	$23,163.47	$26.82	0.1%	$9,975.37	2.5%
14	153	$27,020.23	$3,733.58	13.8%	$13,708.95	3.2%
15	128	$21,970.03	$1,567.16	7.1%	$15,276.11	3.4%
16	121	$22,481.71	$1,351.89	6.0%	$16,628.00	3.5%
17	134	$22,787.58	$1,587.58	7.0%	$18,215.58	3.6%
18	142	$25,111.30	-$2,688.65	-10.7%	$15,526.93	3.0%
19	126	$20,627.74	-$2,653.09	-12.9%	$12,873.84	2.4%
20	135	$22,182.13	$6,486.85	29.2%	$19,360.69	3.4%
21	122	$19,564.15	-$2,459.52	-12.6%	$16,901.17	2.9%
22	115	$19,643.40	-$1,883.38	-9.6%	$15,017.79	2.5%
23	108	$21,002.29	$36.92	0.2%	$15,054.71	2.4%
24	59	$17,031.75	-$3,390.14	-19.9%	$11,664.58	1.8%
25	31	$6,400.16	-$765.19	-12.0%	$10,899.39	1.7%
26	16	$2,088.13	-$587.60	-28.1%	$10,311.78	1.6%
27	21	$4,382.50	$414.63	9.5%	$10,726.42	1.6%
28	15	$1,828.49	-$735.85	-40.2%	$9,990.56	1.5%
29	9	$1,287.70	$981.21	76.2%	$10,971.77	1.7%
30	4	$401.21	-$401.21	-100.0%	$10,570.56	1.6%
31	3	$530.91	$118.13	22.3%	$10,688.69	1.6%
32	8	$1,160.24	$111.19	9.6%	$10,799.89	1.6%
33	3	$623.02	-$214.02	-34.4%	$10,585.86	1.6%

The table below does the same but for totals betting. It shows that 9 weeks in, and one maximises their profit at a rate of 5.5% ROI.

Weeks	#Bets	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI	Cumulative Profit	Cumulative %ROI
0	133	$36,678.85	$3,793.24	10.3%	$3,793.24	10.3%
1	152	$35,169.15	$2,935.55	8.3%	$6,728.79	9.4%
2	140	$34,221.81	$211.73	0.6%	$6,940.52	6.5%
3	156	$34,752.20	$4,801.66	13.8%	$11,742.18	8.3%
4	153	$32,270.79	-$208.40	-0.6%	$11,533.78	6.7%
5	188	$36,422.22	-$213.98	-0.6%	$11,319.80	5.4%
6	153	$28,233.49	$1,699.51	6.0%	$13,019.31	5.5%
7	164	$27,363.86	$1,959.16	7.2%	$14,978.47	5.6%
8	139	$23,063.13	$1,948.20	8.4%	$16,926.67	5.9%
9	138	$23,552.54	$215.50	0.9%	$17,142.16	5.5%
10	140	$20,138.68	-$113.11	-0.6%	$17,029.06	5.1%
11	133	$22,839.71	-$342.60	-1.5%	$16,686.46	4.7%
12	153	$25,338.76	-$1,385.82	-5.5%	$15,300.63	4.0%
13	147	$22,224.16	-$3,770.56	-17.0%	$11,530.08	2.9%
14	156	$26,332.04	$1,392.00	5.3%	$12,922.07	3.0%
15	115	$19,445.00	-$3,272.16	-16.8%	$9,649.91	2.2%
16	106	$17,338.78	$249.76	1.4%	$9,899.67	2.1%
17	142	$21,448.25	$762.69	3.6%	$10,662.36	2.2%
18	136	$22,220.92	-$1,613.39	-7.3%	$9,048.97	1.8%
19	131	$23,672.51	-$2,328.43	-9.8%	$6,720.54	1.3%
20	127	$19,914.28	-$3,015.29	-15.1%	$3,705.24	0.7%
21	129	$21,908.55	$3,389.23	15.5%	$7,094.47	1.2%
22	101	$15,102.76	$2,050.30	13.6%	$9,144.77	1.6%
23	90	$13,244.98	-$127.89	-1.0%	$9,016.88	1.5%
24	57	$11,847.01	$997.72	8.4%	$10,014.59	1.6%
25	45	$9,590.72	$1.05	0.0%	$10,015.64	1.6%
26	19	$4,101.96	-$262.63	-6.4%	$9,753.01	1.6%
27	14	$1,543.45	-$327.82	-21.2%	$9,425.19	1.5%
28	16	$2,382.66	-$22.45	-0.9%	$9,402.74	1.5%
29	12	$2,478.60	$1,245.13	50.2%	$10,647.87	1.7%
30	9	$1,848.79	-$689.06	-37.3%	$9,958.81	1.6%
31	5	$1,045.85	-$654.44	-62.6%	$9,304.37	1.5%
32	8	$1,774.95	-$58.33	-3.3%	$9,246.03	1.4%
33	3	$545.54	$72.59	13.3%	$9,318.62	1.5%

These week numbers of course are not be all and end all, and it will vary year to year. But they do give the punter an idea of when the model has done well in the past, and the obvious answer is from word go.

With the NBA season beginning Wednesday, you don’t want to miss a few weeks and hence miss out on all the action about when the model has traditionally performed the best.

All subscription details and prices are shown here.

America’s Ice Hockey season is about to start, and as per normal, we will be producing predictions for the upcoming season. All in all we have predicted 3815 totals bets for a return of 6.1% ROI. Last year we made 3%, but the year before cleaned up with 13.1% ROI. Interestingly, by the end of January last year, the model was sitting on 18% ROI for the year.

We’ve done an analysis by month to show you how the model goes ever y month. Shown below is the graph, which shows that the model has traditionally kicked off very well averaging over 7% ROI in October (month 10). February came out break even (0% ROI, month 2), and months 4 and 5 were less that other months, maybe because of the variability in finals totals.

So clearly, the model does well from day 1, and hopefully this trend will continue on 2015. Subscriptions are now available and places are limited and will be closed.

The NHL season starts this Wednesday. Subscription details and betting histories here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/ice-hockey/

The NFL Season is set to start this Thursday and once again we will be providing predictions for the entire season. Whilst our betting history shows some really good figures – making 1.8% ROI betting the line over five seasons and making 5.8% ROI betting totals, with each season being a winner – analysis of the results prove that there is more to it than that.

We stated before the start of last season, that by waiting until round 6 to bet totals, and a little later for line betting can drastically increase your profit over the season. And had you followed this the you would have made an incredible 15% ROI last year betting on totals.

In fact, we’ve decided to do some analysis into how the model has gone over the five years based on round. Shown here are the results for totals betting and line betting alike.

It shows that betting from approximately rounds 3 to 6 show the greatest profit. That said betting from the word go isn’t that much less than waiting a few rounds. When looking at how the model has gone when waiting until round 6 (as previously prescribed), it shows a significant increase in profit in all years but 2011. For three years in a row the model has made over 13% ROI each year.

There can be no doubt that the totals model for NFL is indeed very profitable.

As for line betting, the results aren’t quite as good but still very profitable indeed. It seems that line betting is a little more variable. A 1.8% ROI profit could have been made betting from word go, however if one was to wait until round 11, then a 5.8% ROI profit could have been made and a little higher profit betting only the second half of the year.

Analysis by year shows that when waiting until round 11, 2011 and 2013 making massive profits in excess of 20% ROI+, however 2012 losing by about the same margin. 2010 made 4% and last year broke around even. Such variability is understandable when we are talking about less than 100 bets a year waiting for round 11.

That being said, totals betting shows clearly amazing results, whilst line betting is profitable, although somewhat more variable.

Hopefully we will have another fantastically profitable 2015.
Subscription information is shown here for the 2015 season.

The College Football season has started, and once again we will be providing predictions for free. Last year was our first year and results were mixed. Whilst h2h betting and line betting lost, totals came out slightly ahead. We’ve done a quick analysis of line betting and totals and results are shown below.

Totals betting seemed to work better with a minimum overlay of 7.5%. This would make the results record a 1.5% ROI. Keep in mind that we are talking about one season here and only 306 bets, so it is hard to say with any certainty about the patterns that we are attempting to find to maximise our profits. Interestingly, we can also look at the days since the first date of the season.

In the first 2 weeks (up until day 14), the totals model was losing at a rate of 21% ROI from 65 bets. After this is showed great form in the middle season making 6.2% ROI from 241 bets from week 3 onwards. This is good news, it could well be that the model takes a little while to get used to the new teams each season. Keep note that the last 2 sections, over 2 months since the season started, recorded losses , but with a sample size of just 43, it’s hard to draw any concrete conclusions here.

Unfortunately line betting failed to show any real profits from anyway of looking at it. We will continue to monitor and make predictions for head to head, line and totals betting, and hopefully do better at it this season. Analysis of totals and line betting are shown in these links.

Predictions are free, and the competition starts today! Details here

The American Baseball season (MLB) starts on Sunday the 5th of April and once again Sportpunter are providing predictions. Last year was the first year that our model went live and the results were fantastic, especially in totals betting.

Shown below is our analysis of the year that has gone, with totals betting first. Some people might want to analyse only the figures from when the model started giving predictions live (from 7/5/14), however I believe a greater reflection of how the model has gone will include up until the start of last year’s season, which is shown first.

	Odds	#Bets	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
1	1.85	38	$4,346.22	-$475.96	-11%
1.85	1.9	170	$19,790.57	-$281.31	-1%
1.9	1.925	82	$9,371.17	$940.47	10%
1.925	1.95	78	$9,036.61	$1,240.14	14%
1.95	1.975	127	$14,100.37	$349.71	2%
1.975	2	61	$6,652.50	$978.25	15%
2	2.05	226	$25,237.01	$4,319.99	17%
2.05	2.1	119	$14,299.52	$2,456.89	17%
2.1	2.15	35	$3,784.10	$1,013.90	27%
2.15	10	20	$2,943.54	$1,309.35	44%
		956	$109,561.61	$11,851.43	11%
	Prob	#Bets	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.5	8	$569.17	$150.75	26%
0.5	0.525	73	$4,797.13	$1,203.11	25%
0.525	0.5375	109	$8,405.63	$1,112.28	13%
0.5375	0.55	125	$10,945.58	$2,825.51	26%
0.55	0.56	134	$12,743.37	-$5.01	0%
0.56	0.575	192	$20,246.63	$3,085.10	15%
0.575	0.5875	108	$13,259.85	-$157.42	-1%
0.5875	0.6	88	$13,355.95	-$21.06	0%
0.6	0.625	78	$14,796.80	$1,968.86	13%
0.625	10	41	$10,441.50	$1,689.31	16%
		956	$109,561.61	$11,851.43	11%
	Overlay	#Bets	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.06	105	$6,008.86	$414.72	7%
0.06	0.07	129	$8,751.96	-$46.79	-1%
0.07	0.08	99	$7,958.78	$1,303.07	16%
0.08	0.09	86	$7,627.48	$434.50	6%
0.09	0.1	74	$7,288.95	$466.52	6%
0.1	0.125	181	$20,935.62	$2,640.70	13%
0.125	0.15	96	$13,382.22	$1,218.35	9%
0.15	0.2	118	$21,012.41	$3,268.94	16%
0.2	0.25	47	$10,402.29	-$594.42	-6%
0.25	10	21	$6,193.04	$2,745.84	44%
		956	$109,561.61	$11,851.43	11%
Since 7/5/14
	Odds	#Bets	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
1	1.85	32	$3,532.54	-$418.37	-12%
1.85	1.9	143	$16,522.32	$949.41	6%
1.9	1.925	61	$6,720.22	$1,569.42	23%
1.925	1.95	46	$5,198.74	$552.03	11%
1.95	1.975	115	$12,808.17	-$25.01	0%
1.975	2	45	$4,671.86	$188.98	4%
2	2.05	175	$19,024.43	$2,273.49	12%
2.05	2.1	81	$9,566.19	$561.95	6%
2.1	2.15	15	$1,608.14	-$40.97	-3%
2.15	10	3	$341.33	$251.85	74%
		716	$79,993.94	$5,862.78	7%
	Prob	#Bets	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.5	3	$227.79	$109.68	48%
0.5	0.525	52	$3,162.19	$663.31	21%
0.525	0.5375	81	$5,981.78	$11.68	0%
0.5375	0.55	88	$7,283.20	$1,451.28	20%
0.55	0.56	101	$9,437.26	-$786.77	-8%
0.56	0.575	153	$16,018.51	$1,622.57	10%
0.575	0.5875	86	$10,237.95	-$633.76	-6%
0.5875	0.6	66	$9,849.64	$452.90	5%
0.6	0.625	59	$10,817.39	$1,071.17	10%
0.625	10	29	$7,134.45	$1,955.65	27%
		718	$80,150.16	$5,917.71	7.4%
	Overlay	#Bets	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.06	87	$4,973.90	$494.18	10%
0.06	0.07	104	$7,020.64	-$373.20	-5%
0.07	0.08	77	$6,221.14	$1,053.23	17%
0.08	0.09	67	$6,011.34	-$161.03	-3%
0.09	0.1	56	$5,563.27	-$262.71	-5%
0.1	0.125	128	$14,952.39	$2,022.61	14%
0.125	0.15	74	$10,357.82	$427.28	4%
0.15	0.2	86	$15,577.51	$1,680.80	11%
0.2	0.25	29	$6,474.05	-$78.66	-1%
0.25	10	10	$2,998.10	$1,115.21	37%
		718	$80,150.16	$5,917.71	7%

As you can see from above, the totals model has done extremely well. From 956 bets it has made 11% ROI which is massive considering the large amount of turnover possible. At first glance it would seem that betting on odds under 1.90 might not be profitable, but this could well be due to a small sample size, and I wouldn’t look too much into that.

What is promising is that larger overlays have resulted in larger profits which is a good indication that we are modelling the data well. The model seemed to go better early in the season than later.

H2H betting was different. Before we went live, the h2h model suffered badly in the opening month, however since we went live on 7/5/15, it made 3% ROI from 906 bets. It would seem betting on odds lower than 2.10 was no profitable however once again this was a small sample size.

	Odds	#Bets	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
1	1.85	41	$3,894.74	-$599.95	-15%
1.85	2	104	$9,357.18	-$607.20	-6%
2	2.1	92	$8,078.10	-$610.50	-8%
2.1	2.2	143	$12,130.31	$1,151.81	9%
2.2	2.3	155	$13,152.82	$863.55	7%
2.3	2.4	147	$12,260.37	$643.19	5%
2.4	2.5	130	$10,654.11	-$1,140.18	-11%
2.5	2.65	150	$13,661.56	-$377.43	-3%
2.65	2.85	100	$9,707.37	$1,383.73	14%
2.85	10	72	$7,143.16	-$489.50	-7%
		1134	$100,039.72	$217.52	0%
	Prob	#Bets	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.4	50	$3,494.67	-$600.78	-17%
0.4	0.425	97	$6,680.18	$982.44	15%
0.425	0.45	132	$9,617.66	$1,176.73	12%
0.45	0.475	233	$19,591.29	-$41.07	0%
0.475	0.5	176	$15,115.73	-$709.75	-5%
0.5	0.525	191	$18,241.20	$52.92	0%
0.525	0.55	93	$9,176.16	-$816.77	-9%
0.55	0.575	88	$9,962.11	$1,075.76	11%
0.575	0.6	42	$4,520.34	$51.64	1%
0.6	10	32	$3,640.38	-$953.60	-26%
		1134	$100,039.72	$217.52	0%
	Overlay	#Bets	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.06	122	$5,964.95	$1,650.12	28%
0.06	0.07	121	$7,109.54	$307.36	4%
0.07	0.08	127	$8,173.63	-$290.06	-4%
0.08	0.09	92	$6,414.14	-$724.60	-11%
0.09	0.1	91	$7,013.12	$205.19	3%
0.1	0.125	179	$15,509.71	-$175.23	-1%
0.125	0.15	123	$12,575.62	-$659.58	-5%
0.15	0.2	152	$17,860.44	$754.72	4%
0.2	0.25	74	$10,249.03	-$1,795.17	-18%
0.25	10	53	$9,169.54	$944.77	10%
		1134	$100,039.72	$217.52	0%
Since 7/5/14
	Odds	#Bets	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
1	1.85	22	$2,014.55	-$305.31	-15%
1.85	2	75	$6,473.51	-$19.85	0%
2	2.1	71	$6,395.37	-$794.22	-12%
2.1	2.2	121	$10,493.00	$1,528.31	15%
2.2	2.3	129	$11,277.59	$1,063.72	9%
2.3	2.4	122	$10,174.08	$1,650.08	16%
2.4	2.5	106	$9,003.94	-$1,124.94	-12%
2.5	2.65	118	$10,967.58	-$1,637.87	-15%
2.65	2.85	86	$8,518.00	$1,506.63	18%
2.85	10	56	$5,742.07	$662.63	12%
		906	$81,059.69	$2,529.18	3%
	Prob	#Bets	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.4	39	$2,740.64	-$183.70	-7%
0.4	0.425	76	$5,240.23	$571.61	11%
0.425	0.45	105	$7,923.16	$449.15	6%
0.45	0.475	195	$16,756.90	$819.86	5%
0.475	0.5	144	$12,101.96	-$302.84	-3%
0.5	0.525	155	$15,342.38	$751.23	5%
0.525	0.55	80	$8,101.00	-$690.64	-9%
0.55	0.575	73	$8,556.03	$1,478.52	17%
0.575	0.6	24	$2,520.99	$211.01	8%
0.6	10	16	$1,840.21	-$638.83	-35%
		907	$81,123.50	$2,465.37	3%
	Overlay	#Bets	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.06	91	$4,355.66	$1,255.21	29%
0.06	0.07	88	$5,040.71	$469.38	9%
0.07	0.08	100	$6,380.88	-$620.86	-10%
0.08	0.09	73	$5,044.15	-$642.68	-13%
0.09	0.1	73	$5,624.55	$400.08	7%
0.1	0.125	139	$11,978.96	$204.36	2%
0.125	0.15	102	$10,308.79	-$52.01	-1%
0.15	0.2	131	$15,423.75	$1,122.89	7%
0.2	0.25	60	$8,378.27	-$706.45	-8%
0.25	10	49	$8,523.97	$1,099.26	13%
		906	$81,059.69	$2,529.18	3%

Please note that half way through the season, an upgrade of pitcher ratings was included so that pitcher ratings can change more quickly and dynamically for new pitchers. Preseason data was not taken into account, and it will be this year, so hopefully we should be able to see better h2h results, especially early on in the season.

Either way, it has been a standout year for Sportpunter’s MLB model, and I am very excited to get on board for when it starts this Sunday.

To sign up or view the betting history for MLB click here to the Sportpunter MLB website.

The AFL season starts this Thursday and once again Sportpunter will be making predictions for it every weekend. No doubt that the AFL is our number 1 model, and the results are there to prove it.

As shown on this betting history link, we have made 12.5% ROI from 1431 bets since 2005 betting on the line, and 11% ROI from the last 2258 bets betting h2h since 1999. More recently the results have even been better with 16.2% ROI made betting the line in the last 6 years.

Last year we wrote an article saying that the period where most profit is made is in the first few weeks, so now would be a great time to get on board before the season starts on Thursday.

Get all the info and subscription option on the Sportpunter AFL webpage