Archive for February, 2010

  • Soccer over betting minimum overlays based on League Level
    The last article I wrote about soccer was about betting the totals, more specifically the unders. We grouped the leagues into different divisions based on popularity and decided what the minimum overlay would be to bet on the unders for certain groups. In this article we will do the same thing but look at the overs. Overs never performs as well as unders in most sports,...
    by at February 23rd, 2010 at 01:02 pm
  • How to become a professional sports gambler – Part 1
    Everyone has a dream. Whether it is to be a rock star, a professional sportsperson, a star in a movie, a high profile business investor, or even a lotto winner. All of the above dreams – except for the last one – requires a lot of work and lots of patience, time and money. Very rarely does one make the big time without putting in the hard yards. TV has given...
    by at February 19th, 2010 at 01:02 pm
  • Soccer under betting minimum overlays based on League Level
    In a previous article we looked at how the soccer model goes betting totals for different groups based on popularity. Results showed that less popular leagues were in fact more profitable than popular leagues. The results was not as extreme as head to head betting, as still good profits were made in all divisions. Considering that most people know that unders betting...
    by at February 18th, 2010 at 10:02 am
  • College Basketball Totals Analysis
    A lot of talk in the forum has been with regards to college basketball and the fact that the higher overlays this year have been losses, as opposed to last year when the higher overlays generally performed very well. Is this just random variation or perhaps the model struggles at higher overlays due to injured players and the like? Well we thought we’d find out. Shown...
    by at February 17th, 2010 at 12:02 pm
  • Soccer minimum totals overlays based on League Level
    We previously looked at betting h2h in soccer and its returns based on league popularity. This time we will look at totals betting using the same five groups of leagues that we used previously. Results pre group are shown below: Group1Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI 00.07542720047% $27,700.42 -$291.36-1% 0.0750.134016348% $30,566.84 $15.200% 0.10.12527712445%...
    by at February 15th, 2010 at 02:02 pm
  • Super 14s free predictions and analysis
    Super 14s predictions have been happening on Sportpunter since 2003. We started off amazingly well, winning profits in the first three years and four of the first five years. In 2004 we recorded an amazing 50% return on investment which is stupidly huge. The last couple of years have seen small losses and because of this it is important to analyse why this is so. Of course,...
    by at February 12th, 2010 at 01:02 pm
  • Soccer minimum overlays based on League Level
    Previously we talked about not quite getting as good 1×2 profits betting on the more popular and more professional leagues. We did manage to win evenly across the board betting totals which is a great result. However more analysis is obviously required in the head to head betting. So based on the groups given previously, I decided to have a look at the results for...
    by at February 11th, 2010 at 10:02 am
  • Who was the most underrated and overrated AFL team in 2009?
    The AFL season is fast approaching, and even this weekend the pre season cup will start. So just for a teaser for the start of the AFL season, we will look at what teams were the most underrated and overrated teams of 2009. How will we decide? Well if were to make a bet on each team throughout the season to win $100, what teams would have made us the most and least profit?...
    by at February 10th, 2010 at 12:02 pm
  • Soccer model performance in relation to league level
    On request, I decided to analyse how the soccer model has gone in the past 365 days with relation to the quality of the league. I have deicded to group the soccer leagues in terms of 5 groups, from 1 being the best most popular and more professional group, to 5 being the least popular and least professional. Some of the leagues I will admit are in the wrong place, and...
    by at February 8th, 2010 at 03:02 pm
  • Same country opponents in tennis. Who to bet on?
    With Juan Monaco just defeating Juan Ignacio Chela in Santiago 6-3 7-5, there has been a bit of talk in the past about what effect a tennis match has when both players are from the same country. Both Monaco and Chela are from Argentina, and no doubt hold a good comradery. So what does this mean on the tennis betting circut? Many believe that this means that the match is...
    by at February 5th, 2010 at 11:02 am