Archive for the ‘Blog’

  • How to determine the optimal Kelly fraction
    As we have discussed previously, the Kelly criterion is mathematically the optimal method of money management when betting. It takes into consideration the probability, and the odds in working out what percentage of your bank one should bet. The higher the overlay (advantage that you have over the bookmaker) and the shorter the odds, the larger the bet size. Whilst the...
    by at November 10th, 2014 at 10:11 am
  • Sportpunter’s new MLB model
    In case you didn’t realise, Sportpunter have a new MLB model, and predictions have been going up daily as shown here: http://www.sportpunter.com/baseball/members/currentbets.htm More information including probability of totals going over and under, suggested bets etc. will be added. A betting history will start as well. Updates at this stage might be a little haphazard...
    by at May 9th, 2014 at 10:05 am
  • Perth Wildcats and Sportpunter clients are the NBL Champions
    The Perth Wildcats are the Australian basketball champions, defeating Adelaide in a best of three playoff. But the real champions are the subscribers who signed up to Sportpunter’s NBL model this season. It was nice way to finish what has been a massively successful betting season with a small unders victory in the final match of the year. The record for the year speaks...
    by at April 14th, 2014 at 10:04 am
  • NBL Finals: Total points scored analysis
    There has been some talk about the NBL finals and how the totals and team lineups will play a part. In American basketball as well as a lot of other sports, the total amount scored during playoffs or finals decrease from what normally occurs throughout the regular season. So does this occur in NBL? Here are the stats from the last few years: Year RegularSeason Av.Finals...
    by at March 27th, 2014 at 10:03 am
  • Average NHL Goals per game per month
    There has been a bit of talk about how on average the number of goals increases and decreases over the course of a season because of the ice conditions. We’ve had a look at all the data going back to 1989 and the results are interesting. It is well documented that the number of goals scored in any match has been on the decline, and this is clearly showed in the graph...
    by at November 19th, 2013 at 12:11 pm
  • NCAAB totals on the increase
    The start of the new NCAAB (American College Basketball) season has seen some high scoring matches. Since the year 2000, scores have gradually been decreasing from a high of 142 on average to last years low of 133. However, this season already has seen a massive jump up to 147 points per game. This can be seen in the figures below: YearAv. Scores 2000/2001142.1 2001/2002141.6 2002/2003139.6 2003/2004138.0 2004/2005137.4 2005/2006137.1 2006/2007137.4 2007/2008137.5 2008/2009135.8 2009/2010136.9 2010/2011136.7 2011/2012134.6 2012/2013133.3 2013/2014147.8 There...
    by at November 14th, 2013 at 08:11 am
  • NBL expected totals increase in 2013/14 season
    With the Australian Basketball NBL Season 2013/14 set to start on Thursday, we thought we’d take a look at the new rules that should allow higher scoring matches to occur. The NBL has always been under the pump with regards to low scoring matches ever since they reduced the length of each quarter. But now, whilst there has not been any actual rule changes per-se, referees...
    by at October 9th, 2013 at 10:10 am
  • Top 4 AFL games where player model is different to team based model
    We previously talked about the difference between the original model and the player based model as discussed before. But today, we will outline the 4 games with the biggest difference in probabilities and why. So here they are. 4. Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney. Round 21,2012. At a finishing line of +49.5, our old model rated the bulldogs a 69.8% chance to cover the line....
    by at February 27th, 2013 at 01:02 pm
  • Tennis Serving Speed Male vs Female
    It’s well documented and observed that on average male tennis players serve faster than females. This is common sense considering that males are much more stronger than females. But how much difference is there really and can the strongest female out serve the weakest male? Shown below is a graph showing the distribution of female and male players for their average fastest...
    by at January 10th, 2013 at 01:01 pm
  • Happy 10th Birthday Sportpunter
    Sportpunter is celebrating its 10th year in business. That’s 10 years of giving out predictions from its website. From the humble start of giving tennis predictions and cricket matchups from the Swinburne University website till now, it’s been a great experience. Many of our followers have followed us from the very beginning and continue to do so now, so thankyou to...
    by at November 16th, 2012 at 02:11 pm