Archive for March, 2010

  • Supercoach / Dream Team AFL Fantasy Footy Steals and Bargain Players Round 2
    Supercoach and Dream Team for AFL football is a big passion of mine. So much so that I’m involved in several leagues that total an entry fee of over $1000. It’s high stakes fantasy and I feel as though I have an edge over some of my fellow competitors. So from time to time, I will be giving out who I believe are big bargains and steals from round to round. Players...
    by at March 31st, 2010 at 03:03 pm
  • AFL line betting
    Previously we looked at how the Sportpunter AFL model had gone betting head to head. In this article we will look a little more in depth about how it goes betting on the line or with a handicap. Traditionally, unlike Americans, Australians had always bet on any sport on the head. It makes perfect sense too; punters want to bet on whom they think is going to win as opposed...
    by at March 23rd, 2010 at 12:03 pm
  • Sportpunter’s AFL Model Analysis
    The AFL season is set to start again this Thursday and with my personal favourite model, we will be predicting from day 1. The tigers play Carlton in the traditional first up game, and we hope (or maybe we don’t) that it will a little closer game. IT may well be the year of the tiger, but any resemblance to Richmond is surely coincidental. Many people have put their...
    by at March 22nd, 2010 at 01:03 pm
  • Sportsbet $100 NRL Money Back
    NRL Season is set to start this weekend, and as per normal, Sportsbet are coming to the rescue with great offers. If you bet with them up to $100 on any head to head matches, then for the first bet that you place, if you team is up at half time but loses, then you get your money back. You can bet $100 on all 8 games and receive up to $800 back in free bets. That easy. Take...
    by at March 11th, 2010 at 02:03 pm
  • Sportpunter’s NRL Model Analysis
    Previously we looked at how the big outsiders have done well in NRL since 2002. Simply betting on all teams where the odds are greater then 4.00 would have netted a profit in excess of 19% ROI. But when does this occur? On home teams or away teams? Shown below is a breakdown of how home and away teams have gone for underdogs (Odds greater or equal to 2) and for odds greater...
    by at March 10th, 2010 at 02:03 pm
  • Backing the underdogs in the NRL
    The NRL season is about to start this Friday. It’s looking to be a great season with Parramatta slight bookie favourites over last years premiership team Melbourne Storm. Sportpunter’s NRL model has done exceptionally well over the years, making over 10% ROI since 2002 on 900 bets. The next few days we will be giving you all the analysis about the NRL model with the...
    by at March 9th, 2010 at 12:03 pm
  • Davis cup bias in home/away players
    With Davis Cup coming this weekend, I thought it was a good opportunity to find out how well the model goes. Many people would say that the Davis cup is a completely different game compared to normal tournaments, and if you have been to several countries which host it, I’m pretty sure that you will agree. Although this is the federation cup – which is the female equivalent...
    by at March 5th, 2010 at 11:03 am
  • Betting short favourites in women’s tennis over the last 6 years
    Everyone knows that there is a favourite long shot bias in most sports. And despite this, many are very afraid to bet big on small priced favourites because of fears of losing way too much money. Money fluctuations are something that a gambler has to take his emotions out of. But is there value in betting the very short priced favourites? Well we have looked at the women’s...
    by at March 3rd, 2010 at 12:03 pm
  • College Basketball Overs betting Analysis
    We previously looked a college basketball totals betting as well as focusing on unders betting. Today we will look at how well we have done suggesting bets on the overs. The data below show our betting history for overs betting. Overs Prob#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI 45.0%50.0%18738.9%$986.44-$73.62-7.5% 50.0%52.5%794253.2% $5,225.12 $697.7713.4% 52.5%55.0%39221755.4%...
    by at March 2nd, 2010 at 12:03 pm
  • College Basketball Unders betting Analysis
    We previously looked at College basketball totals betting and where and when it is profitable. Overall a 5.5% ROI was made, but interestingly some of the larger overlays failed to return a profit. Is this the case for over and unders betting? We will do the analysis and for unders it is shown below. Unders Prob#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI 45.0%50.0%11654.5%$769.13$230.4930.0% 50.0%52.5%854148.2%...
    by at March 1st, 2010 at 03:03 pm