Archive for the ‘Sport Models’

  • Sportpunter NBA. Odds Analysis Part 4
    This is the final of the four part model analysis of our NBA model. To view the other articles first, then follow these links for articles one, two and three. Many will know that when I release probabilities for NBA I release them at two different times. The first is around 6pm and the later around 9am. This is because at 6pm Australian time, bookmakers have prices up...
    by at October 12th, 2017 at 09:10 am
  • Sportpunter NBA. Odds Analysis Part 3
    Previously we looked at how our Sportpunter NBA model has gone betting throughout the season (http://www.sportpunter.com/2017/10/sportpunter-nba-odds-analysis-part-1/) as well as how it had gone when compared to finishing prices (http://www.sportpunter.com/2017/10/sportpunter-nba-odds-analysis-part-2/). But today we will look at the expected profits based on those finishing...
    by at October 10th, 2017 at 09:10 am
  • Sportpunter NBA. Odds Analysis Part 2
    We previously (http://www.sportpunter.com/2017/10/sportpunter-nba-odds-analysis-part-1/ ) looked at how the Sportpunter NBA model had done as the season progresses, but how much of that is random variation and how much is a true reflection of how powerful the model actually is? One way to analyse how good the model is is comparing our bets to the Pinnacle finishing line....
    by at October 8th, 2017 at 09:10 am
  • Sportpunter NBA. Odds Analysis Part 1
    The NBA season 2017/18 is about to start on the 17/10/17 and once again Sportpunter will be releasing predictions every day for every match. Over the seven years that we have been producing probabilities for we have made substantial profits. In total for head to head betting we have made 2.7% ROI from 4662 bets. Line or handicap betting has made slightly less at 1.5%...
    by at October 5th, 2017 at 01:10 pm
  • Sportpunter Models Go Bang
    during the 2016 AFL Grand Final match between the Sydney Swans and the Western Bulldogs at Melbourne Cricket Ground on October 1, 2016 in Melbourne, Australia.What a start to the footy season it has been with Sportpunter’s Footy Models. Let’s take a look at the first two weeks of the AFL season. 15 bets into the AFL season, its only round 2, but already we have made...
    by at April 4th, 2017 at 11:04 am
  • AFL Season 2017 and random variation
    The 2017 AFL Season is fast approaching and once again Sportpunter will be providing predictions. Last year might have been a sour one, but we will show in the analysis below how we expect to go in 2017. If you look at the bigger picture, we have made 12.1% ROI from line betting in the last 12 years and 10.3% ROI in the last five years. With only about 140 bets per year...
    by at March 9th, 2017 at 11:03 am
  • NRL Season to begin Thursday
    The NRL season is set to star this Thursday and once again Sportpunter are giving out predictions. Every day that there are matches at 11.30am predictions will be uploaded, and hopefully they will be as successful as the past. For the past three years that we have had a player based model, we have seen a profit on turnover of 8.2% Subscriptions are now available to purchase,...
    by at February 28th, 2017 at 02:02 pm
  • NBA Season analysis 2016/17
    The NBA Season is just about to start and Sportpunter will be giving predictions every day for every match in 2016/17. Please note, that as shown below in our analysis, it is critical that you sign up and get the first few weeks of predictions, because – as we shall show below – they are the most important and most successful for our NBA model. Click here to sign up...
    by at October 24th, 2016 at 11:10 am
  • NFL 2016 analysis
    NFL is back for 2016 and we have included some analysis as shown below. Shown below are analysis of the NFL betting for the 2014 and 2015 seasons. Firstly line betting. Results are good at the start of the year, and I see no reason not to be early. However a minimum overlay of 25% might be the best taking. Keep in mind that these are small sample sizes. For totals betting,...
    by at September 5th, 2016 at 11:09 am
  • AFL Season 2016
    Hi Guys, just a quick note to remind you that the AFL season starts on Thursday. Over the years we have had an amazing record as shown here. The last 7 seasons has seen us record over 15% profit on turnover betting the line. Incredible stuff. Last year we recorded a 6.3% POT, but astute punters will remember that I did not recommend any of the suggested bets in round 23...
    by at March 18th, 2016 at 03:03 pm