Sportpunter

AFL Season 2018 is about to start this Thursday and once again Sportpunter will be providing their predictions for every game.

The sportpunter AFL model has been one of our golden models. Season 2018 will be the 20th year that we have made predictions for AFL, and over that time we have suggests 2595 bets at a rate of 9.6% POT betting head to head, and have suggested 1859 bets at 10.3% POT betting the handicap.

We’ve also shown previously that the early rounds are the rounds that are most profitable, so make sure that you are fully signed before the season starts. Please note that any signups on the Thursday will most likely miss the first round, so make sure you have signed up by this Wednesday.

Best of punting luck, and here’s to hopefully another successful AFL betting season.

You can subscribe or view the packages on this link: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/afl/

The NRL season is fast approaching us, and Sportpunter are once again releasing their player based model . Since 2014, we have had excellent results based on the player based model , with head to head bets making 7.5% POT from 576 bets, whilst line betting making 7.0% POT from 626 bets.

We’ve also decided to analyse betting results based on odds as how it goes either side of the state of origin.

Shown below is how the model has gone since 2014 for different odds for head to head betting. As you can see, when the odds are less than 1.6, the model has actually made a 3.2% POT loss. However, with only 161 bets, this is a small sample size. Perhaps there is something in it? I’ll leave that to the individual. Either way, a 15.4% POT betting on underdogs has been since 2014 with 315 bets, which is very handy indeed.

Interestingly, the h2h model seems to work better betting on favourites the week before and after origin. Betting favourites either side of origin has needed 17.6% POT from 45 bets, whilst betting on underdogs has lost 21% POT from 51 bets. This could be substantial, and something to look out for in the future, despite the small sample size.

When analysing round by round, it’s clear that head to head betting has been extremely profitable in the opening half of the season. After about round 15, profits decrease. But the first half of the season sees a 14.8% POT from 302 bets since 2014.

With regards to line betting, it seems that line betting has been profitable across the board, whether betting on short prices favourites (negative lines) or underdogs (positive lines). A very similar profit to head to head recorded.

Either side of origin, line betting hasn’t been profitable, although it has made small gains betting on favourites the week after origin. Once again, only a sample size of just over 100, but a 3.8% POT loss had been made, which is something that one might be conscious about.

With regards to line betting, the model seems to very consistent throughout the season, and might be the preferred method of betting in the second half of the season.

Please note that past events are not a recipe for future ones, but the analysis shown could be very important to maximising your profit throughout the 2018 NRL season.

Either way, analysis has shown that betting the NRL year after year has been very profitable indeed and hopefully 2018 will continue in that form.

Make sure that you don’t miss out on the first round of the NRL season. Details of subscription packages are shown on this link.

This is the final of the four part model analysis of our NBA model. To view the other articles first, then follow these links for articles one, two and three.
Many will know that when I release probabilities for NBA I release them at two different times. The first is around 6pm and the later around 9am. This is because at 6pm Australian time, bookmakers have prices up some, but usually not all the matches. Perhaps they are waiting on team injury news, but at the time of uploading, not all the odds are available for all the matches. When I update the probs at around 9am, I add the current odds to all the matches that did not have bets.

So which update has done better? The answers below.

Unfortunately I only starting recording at what time the updates occurred about 2 months into last season. So the following analysis only includes season 2016/17 and doesn’t include the first 2 months which have traditionally been very positive. However the intention of this article is not to measure how profitable the model is but rather compare early release of odds to late release of odds.

In all the tables shown below, OddsType1 is the early release of odds (around 6pm) and oddstype2 is the later release of odds. The first table shown below is for head to head betting.

The table above shows that the later release of predictions was in fact more profitable than the early release of predictions. A profit of nearly $8,000 for the later, compared to a loss of nearly $5000 for the earlier. Note however that the $DiffProfit amount for each ($483 and $890) is compareable, indicating that the odds still move in our favour after release and probably equally as much. With such a small sample size there is not a lot that we can say about that apart from perhaps that perhaps the later release time might be slightly more profitable as more knowledge of injuries etc. are known.
Similar results are shown for line betting but highlighted even more.

Profits were positive for OddsType 2 (later release) and negative early, but the $DiffProfit is substantially different, which odds moving in our favour greater for the later release.

Once again it’s the totals betting that has everyone talking the most.

A 18.2% ROI profit was made last year (not including the first two months), from 373 bets betting with the early 6pm markets. A high $DiffProfit also indicates that on average the odds moved in our favour quite substantially even during playoffs. A loss was made on OddsType2, but this could easily be attributed to random variation considering the positive $DiffProfit amount.

I know it’s hard to get your head around, but in summary we can say this. The Sportpunter NBA model is very strong. Its profits have been consistent throughout the years and I see no reason why they wouldn’t continue to be in the future. Totals betting seems to yield higher returns and is profitable all season, whilst head to head and line betting models are better exploited early and then treated with caution late in the season.

One thing is for sure, is that profits start from the first match of the season, so it’s very important to jump on board and don’t miss the early profits in season 2017/18.

To sign up to the Sportpunter 2017/18 NBA model, click here for details. http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/basketball/nba/

Previously we looked at how our Sportpunter NBA model has gone betting throughout the season (http://www.sportpunter.com/2017/10/sportpunter-nba-odds-analysis-part-1/) as well as how it had gone when compared to finishing prices (http://www.sportpunter.com/2017/10/sportpunter-nba-odds-analysis-part-2/). But today we will look at the expected profits based on those finishing prices and how we would have gone betting throughout the season.

The Tables shown below will look very similar to the tables on the first article with two columns added. The first table is based on head to head betting, and the two extra columns are %ProfitFinPin and $DiffProfit. What this indicates is that if we bet the same amount as we did when we suggested the bet, but not at the suggested bet price, but rather the finishing Pinnacle price then how would we have gone. The last column, $DiffProfit looks at the difference between the actual profit, and the profit based on finishing Pinnacle Prices.

Sound complex? Maybe, But what this means is that if $DiffProfit is positive, then our profits are greater than what we would expected, in other words, they are good bets. If $DiffProfit is negative, then perhaps the profits are not great as on average the odds have moved against us. A positive $DiffProfit means that the odds have moved in our favour when compared to finishing price, and if it is negative the odds have moved against us.

The table above looks at head to head betting and the minimum number of matches for each team. The $DiffProfit column indicates a small negative amount early, followed by large positive amounts and then a negative amount ($-511) at the end of the season. Firstly the sum of the $DiffProfit amount is positive, which is great and indicates a good healthy and profitable model . It is slightly negative at the start which could indicate that perhaps we have been slightly lucky early on in the season or that we are pushing a position with the model which is not favoured that much around smart money. Considering the amount of profit that has been made in the first months, I believe this is purely due to random variation and a little bit of luck in our favour.

The model is strong throughout the year but negative when it comes to playoffs, once again indicating that stopping betting at playoffs is preferred for head to head betting.

For line betting as shown by the table below it is a little different

We have relatively positive amounts in the $DiffProfit column up to around minimum match 70. When the minimum match of each team is 70-80 then expected profits is basically zero, as was the actual profits. Once again this confirms that betting the line up to around a month out of playoffs might be the best way to go.
For totals betting as shown below, totals profits as shown in $DiffProfit are strongly positive throughout

Note that for playoffs, the variable $DiffProfit is only slightly positive, indicating that at this stage the lines are not moving that much in our favour despite our bets and staying pretty constant. But it does show that on average throughout the season, the line on average for totals moves in our favour greatly.

So we have shown not only how profitable the model is, and how when the odds move in our favour is it even more profitable, but we have also shown when the odds move in our favour as well.

In the final of the four part article series, we will look at betting early, compared to betting late.

To sign up to the Sportpunter 2017/18 NBA model, click here for details. http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/basketball/nba/

We previously (http://www.sportpunter.com/2017/10/sportpunter-nba-odds-analysis-part-1/ ) looked at how the Sportpunter NBA model had done as the season progresses, but how much of that is random variation and how much is a true reflection of how powerful the model actually is?

One way to analyse how good the model is is comparing our bets to the Pinnacle finishing line. If our bets are really good, then the finishing line should in theory move in the direction of our suggested bet. In other words, we take on the assumption that as we get closer to the start of the match, the odds become a more accurate representation of what the true odds of each team are to win.

Shown below is a table for head to head betting that shows the %difference of the odds that we suggested a bet at compared to the finishing pinnacle odds for that match. A %change in odds that is greater than 1 indicates that the odds have come in (and we have obtained better odds than the finishing price), and likewise a %difference of the odds that is less than 1 indicates that the odds have ballooned against us.

What this indicates clearly is that when the odds come in after our bet as compared to the finishing odds, we tend to make substantial profits. In fact on average if the %Difference is greater than 1, we have made 11.9% ROI from 1810 bets. Even greater is when the %difference is 1.1+, then we have made a staggering 62% ROI from 292 bets. An example of when this occurs might be for example if we bet on a team at 1.90, and then at the start of the match the odds for the team are 1.70 (1.90 / 1.70 = 1.117).

Some of these cases could be to players changing due to injury, but the majority of cases would be smart money. In that we got on the team before smart money moved the prices. The same goes for the opposite end of the stick. If the price moves against our favour then on average we lose 6.2% ROI from 1803 bets.
There are a couple of things to note here, the profits when the odds move in our favour significantly are a lot higher than the losses if the move against us and also that the above also table includes post season analysis which was previously shown to produce poor results.

We can do the same analysis with line betting as shown below. However this time, instead of looking at the %change in odds, we look as the change in the finishing line.

This shows a very similar pattern to that of head to head betting as you would expect.
Totals betting provides the best results as shown on the table below

What is interesting with this table is that not only when the line moves in our favour to we make a greater profit than when it moves against us. (10.4% ROI when line moves with us, as opposed to -7%ROI when the line moves against us), but we also have a lot more bets when the line moves with us (2043) then when it moves against (1331).

Clearly this shows that whilst h2h betting and line betting are profitable, totals betting is amazingly stronger.
So in conclusion, assuming that the finishing line is a more efficient and accurate measure of the true probability of each team winning, then our model holds up very well, especially with totals betting.
In the next article I will look at how profits
and expected profits based on finishing prices go betting throughout the season.
To sign up to the Sportpunter 2017/18 NBA model, click here for details. http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/basketball/nba/