Sportpunter NBA. Odds Analysis Part 1

Model, Sport Models | | October 5, 2017 at 1:26 pm

The NBA season 2017/18 is about to start on the 17/10/17 and once again Sportpunter will be releasing predictions every day for every match. Over the seven years that we have been producing probabilities for we have made substantial profits.

In total for head to head betting we have made 2.7% ROI from 4662 bets. Line or handicap betting has made slightly less at 1.5% ROI from 5416 bets, whilst totals have made 3.1% ROI from 5189 bets.

However these amounts can be increased through analysis by not betting at certain stages of the season and with certain overlays. We have shown previously (for example here or here ) that profits can be maximised at the start of the season. Profits in the past have traditionly been extremely good early in the season and then level out throughout the season before turning bad just before playoffs.

Limiting ones betting to the start and middle of the seasons, history suggests, should increase ones profits substantially from those figures shown above.
We have re-analysed the data to show you how much more one could make by limiting your betting later in the season.
Show below is a table showing the mimumum number of matches in that season that a team has played. So for example, if Team1 plays team2 and team1 has played 15 games, and team2 19 games, then the minimum number of games for this match is 15.

MinSeasonMatch#Bets$Bet$Profit%ROI
110139 $32,492.94 $9,965.88 30.7%
1020535 $100,861.12 -$1,220.90 -1.2%
2030484 $83,727.42 $5,968.13 7.1%
3040455 $70,763.48 -$4,567.31 -6.5%
4050446 $67,946.01 -$2,323.13 -3.4%
5060465 $69,879.15 $6,693.77 9.6%
6070439 $62,298.43 $7,574.05 12.2%
7080439 $59,678.20 -$968.59-1.6%
8090466 $80,206.26 $2,826.39 3.5%
90170269 $42,808.97 -$10,232.47 -23.9%
4137 $670,661.99 $13,715.82 2.0%

The table above shows obviously that betting early on has been very profitable and continually profitable up until the teams play around 90 matches. The data includes pre season matches, and with most teams playing 6-7 pre season matches as well as 82 regular season matches, this indicates that results have not been good post season when the minimum games is greater than 90.

If we don’t include post season matches, then the profit increases to 3.8% ROI from 3868 bets.

Similarly the table below shows a similar result, but profits are not there in the month leading up the the playoffs. This could be due to different motivations for teams. Profits up to around minimum matches 70-80 are most profitable with profits getting up to 3.2% ROI from 3156 bets.

MinSeasonMatch#Bets$Bet$Profit%ROI
110159 $38,455.33 $5,170.87 13.4%
1020575 $123,332.86 $6,260.14 5.1%
2030505 $95,984.23 $6,319.83 6.6%
3040489 $85,209.79 -$1,133.59 -1.3%
4050496 $86,026.81 -$2,239.35 -2.6%
5060471 $88,711.70 $3,716.12 4.2%
6070461 $77,347.09 $1,032.35 1.3%
7080453 $81,855.98 $254.560.3%
8090469 $104,366.07 -$4,165.02 -4.0%
90170264 $51,980.24 -$8,749.92 -16.8%

However profits for totals seem to be consistent throughout the year. Theres a small loss in the middle of the season, but this could be attributed to random variation. Profits have been made during the post season matches.

MinSeasonMatch#Bets$Bet$Profit%ROI
110148 $36,282.58 $5,195.24 14.3%
1020561 $120,678.39 $4,220.35 3.5%
2030466 $84,370.44 $2,852.37 3.4%
3040462 $78,393.49 $4,409.70 5.6%
4050440 $67,681.26 -$5,266.76 -7.8%
5060442 $69,122.96 -$2,124.86 -3.1%
6070471 $77,317.46 $1,255.55 1.6%
7080417 $64,610.29 $3,659.75 5.7%
8090394 $63,503.74 $2,995.83 4.7%
90170262 $49,956.23 $4,960.97 9.9%

One thing is for sure, is that profits are especially good from the word go. That is, as soon as the season starts, the best profits are made. So its important to get on board early.

This is the first article of a four part series. In the next article we will look at how we have gone when compared to the finishing line.
To sign up to the Sportpunter 2017/18 NBA model, click here for details.

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