Archive for the ‘Model’

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    Sportpunter’s NRL Model Analysis
    Previously we looked at how the big outsiders have done well in NRL since 2002. Simply betting on all teams where the odds are greater then 4.00 would have netted a profit in excess of 19% ROI. But when does this occur? On home teams or away teams? Shown below is a breakdown of how home and away teams have gone for underdogs (Odds greater or equal to 2) and for odds greater...
    by sportpunter at March 10th, 2010 at 02:03 pm
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    Backing the underdogs in the NRL
    The NRL season is about to start this Friday. It’s looking to be a great season with Parramatta slight bookie favourites over last years premiership team Melbourne Storm. Sportpunter’s NRL model has done exceptionally well over the years, making over 10% ROI since 2002 on 900 bets. The next few days we will be giving you all the analysis about the NRL model with the...
    by sportpunter at March 9th, 2010 at 12:03 pm
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    Davis cup bias in home/away players
    With Davis Cup coming this weekend, I thought it was a good opportunity to find out how well the model goes. Many people would say that the Davis cup is a completely different game compared to normal tournaments, and if you have been to several countries which host it, I’m pretty sure that you will agree. Although this is the federation cup – which is the female equivalent...
    by sportpunter at March 5th, 2010 at 11:03 am
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    College Basketball Overs betting Analysis
    We previously looked a college basketball totals betting as well as focusing on unders betting. Today we will look at how well we have done suggesting bets on the overs. The data below show our betting history for overs betting. Overs Prob#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI 45.0%50.0%18738.9%$986.44-$73.62-7.5% 50.0%52.5%794253.2% $5,225.12 $697.7713.4% 52.5%55.0%39221755.4%...
    by sportpunter at March 2nd, 2010 at 12:03 pm
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    College Basketball Unders betting Analysis
    We previously looked at College basketball totals betting and where and when it is profitable. Overall a 5.5% ROI was made, but interestingly some of the larger overlays failed to return a profit. Is this the case for over and unders betting? We will do the analysis and for unders it is shown below. Unders Prob#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI 45.0%50.0%11654.5%$769.13$230.4930.0% 50.0%52.5%854148.2%...
    by sportpunter at March 1st, 2010 at 03:03 pm
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    Soccer over betting minimum overlays based on League Level
    The last article I wrote about soccer was about betting the totals, more specifically the unders. We grouped the leagues into different divisions based on popularity and decided what the minimum overlay would be to bet on the unders for certain groups. In this article we will do the same thing but look at the overs. Overs never performs as well as unders in most sports,...
    by sportpunter at February 23rd, 2010 at 01:02 pm
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    Soccer under betting minimum overlays based on League Level
    In a previous article we looked at how the soccer model goes betting totals for different groups based on popularity. Results showed that less popular leagues were in fact more profitable than popular leagues. The results was not as extreme as head to head betting, as still good profits were made in all divisions. Considering that most people know that unders betting...
    by sportpunter at February 18th, 2010 at 10:02 am
  • 1
    College Basketball Totals Analysis
    A lot of talk in the forum has been with regards to college basketball and the fact that the higher overlays this year have been losses, as opposed to last year when the higher overlays generally performed very well. Is this just random variation or perhaps the model struggles at higher overlays due to injured players and the like? Well we thought we’d find out. Shown...
    by sportpunter at February 17th, 2010 at 12:02 pm
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    Soccer minimum totals overlays based on League Level
    We previously looked at betting h2h in soccer and its returns based on league popularity. This time we will look at totals betting using the same five groups of leagues that we used previously. Results pre group are shown below: Group1Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI 00.07542720047% $27,700.42 -$291.36-1% 0.0750.134016348% $30,566.84 $15.200% 0.10.12527712445%...
    by sportpunter at February 15th, 2010 at 02:02 pm
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    Super 14s free predictions and analysis
    Super 14s predictions have been happening on Sportpunter since 2003. We started off amazingly well, winning profits in the first three years and four of the first five years. In 2004 we recorded an amazing 50% return on investment which is stupidly huge. The last couple of years have seen small losses and because of this it is important to analyse why this is so. Of course,...
    by sportpunter at February 12th, 2010 at 01:02 pm
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