Author Archive

  • How to determine the optimal Kelly fraction
    As we have discussed previously, the Kelly criterion is mathematically the optimal method of money management when betting. It takes into consideration the probability, and the odds in working out what percentage of your bank one should bet. The higher the overlay (advantage that you have over the bookmaker) and the shorter the odds, the larger the bet size. Whilst the...
    by at November 10th, 2014 at 10:11 am
  • Our new player based NBA Model
    We talked previously about how Sportpunter’s NBA model excels early in the season. But today we are going to talk about Sportpunter’s new player based NBA Model. The only thing required at this stage is to estimate what the starting 5 lineup will be for each team. Given this we should see some greatly improved betting results. Keep in mind that all statistical analysis...
    by at October 23rd, 2014 at 02:10 pm
  • NBA Season 2014-15, weekly past analysis
    The NBA season starts in just over a week, and once again Sportpunter will be providing predictions. Predictions will be updated on a regular basis every day between 5pm and 6pm AEDT. Our record has been extremely good as our betting history suggests here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/basketball/nba/ with h2h betting making 1.6% ROI, line betting making 0.9% ROI and...
    by at October 21st, 2014 at 12:10 pm
  • NBL 2014/15 analysis
    The NBL, or Australian Basketball starts this Friday, and hopefully we will achieve the same success as we have in the past. As our betting history shows, we have made 4.1% ROI betting h2h from 779 bets in 8 years. But better than h2h betting, is the line betting which has made 15.3% ROI in the 3 years that we have been recording it. Making profits of 18.1%, 12.8% and...
    by at October 9th, 2014 at 09:10 am
  • NHL Season 2014/15 set to start
    The NHL Season is about to start on Wednesday and once again Sportpunter will be providing predictions in the upcoming season 2014/15. Our predictions have done very well for totals betting in the past and you can see form our betting history that we have made 6.5 %ROI from 3406 bets in 9 seasons. Last year we recorded out best ever return on investment of 13.1% ROI from...
    by at October 6th, 2014 at 01:10 pm
  • AFL 2014 season summary
    The AFL season has finished for 2014 and the mighty hawks have once again reigned supreme. At the start of the year, we had them as massive favourites to win and the big overlay came home. But line betting was our major market this year, and it produced a significant profit like previous years. Over the course of the year we had 146 bets on the line for 88 wins. That resulted...
    by at September 29th, 2014 at 11:09 am
  • 2014 NFL Season
    The 2014 NFL season starts tonight, and Sportpunter are releasing our models picks once again. To become a subscriber, click the link here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/nfl/ But first, we will do an analysis of the last 4 years of betting. Firstly, totals betting. As shown on the betting history on the page listed above, we have managed to make 5.9% ROI from totals...
    by at September 4th, 2014 at 12:09 pm
  • Super15s 2014 Season Summary
    Well the Rugby Union Super15s season has finished and what another great season it was for Sportpunter clients. The free tips were given out every Thursday for the upcoming weekend, and punters well left very happy with the results. In total we made 77 bets for a massive 28% ROI. It was our biggest year since the first year that we ran the model in 2003 and since then...
    by at August 5th, 2014 at 08:08 am
  • Sportpunter’s new WTA Model – h2h
    Sportpunter have done a major major upgrade to their WTA and ATP models. So major in fact that we started from scratch and rebuild the model from the ground up. Predictions are now available on the website for clients as shown here H2h bets Line bets Set bets Totals bets Bet Challengers But we will go through some of the analysis of the results using a hold out sample...
    by at June 5th, 2014 at 02:06 pm
  • Sportpunter’s new MLB model
    In case you didn’t realise, Sportpunter have a new MLB model, and predictions have been going up daily as shown here: http://www.sportpunter.com/baseball/members/currentbets.htm More information including probability of totals going over and under, suggested bets etc. will be added. A betting history will start as well. Updates at this stage might be a little haphazard...
    by at May 9th, 2014 at 10:05 am