Archive for February, 2013

  • Top 4 AFL games where player model is different to team based model
    We previously talked about the difference between the original model and the player based model as discussed before. But today, we will outline the 4 games with the biggest difference in probabilities and why. So here they are. 4. Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney. Round 21,2012. At a finishing line of +49.5, our old model rated the bulldogs a 69.8% chance to cover the line....
    by at February 27th, 2013 at 01:02 pm
  • AFL Analysis Season 2011/12 New vs Old model
    With the 2013 AFL season shortly on us, I have managed to analyse the old and new AFL models based on finishing prices as given by pinnacle sports. These are the prices shortly before the start of the match, which naturally would include any change in prices due to player inclusions and exclusions. Before I give the details of the analysis, a few things must be mentioned....
    by at February 26th, 2013 at 11:02 am
  • AFL Season 2012 with new player model
    A lot of people are telling me not to change the successful Sportpunter AFL model, because it has done so well for them in the past. And I tend to agree. Our record speaks for itself. 14 years of history, and we have made over 10% ROI betting head to head, and 12% ROI betting the line. In fact the last four years alone and we have made a minimum 13% each year, up to a...
    by at February 15th, 2013 at 11:02 am