There are a few files given below for you to download. These files will help you find overlays and keep track of your bets over time. It is strongly recommended that you use one of these files. Right click and then choose “save as” and then download it to your hard drive.
Sports Simulation Program
The first file is a very good simulation program that allows you to simulate your bank based on your strike rate, the odds you bet, and how many bets. You can change the percentage of your initial bank or current bank to bet.
The analysis is carried out in 10,000 simulations which will determine the probability of making a profit, going bankrupt, as well as calculating winning and losing streaks. It is a very useful tool for determining how to manage your money when gambling:
The tennis simulator takes all the previous betting data over the last two years from Sportpunter and randomly allocates this for a years betting, hence simulating the next years tennis betting. You can enter your initial bank balance, your Kelly factorial, whether you wish to use a moving bank (changed at the end of each week) or not, as well as some other options.
After the simulation, you will receive based on your inputs your average and median expected profit, the probability of profit and bankruptcy as well as other information like the spread of your final bank balance at the end of the simulated year. If you are unsure about whether to sign up to Sportpunter’s Tennis Model then download this program, have a go, and then see if it’s worth while for you. There is a very good chance that it is!
The program given below is zipped, so you will have to unzip it to get it to work in Excel.
The AFL Simulator looks at our past history over the 6 years of betting, and then simulates how you could go betting this year using Sportpunter’s AFL Model. Here one can enter their bank size, what Kelly fraction they wish to use, whether they wish to bet on a constant Kelly or moving bank method and whether they wish to bet on teams that travel interstate or not. The program will then simulate the up and coming season and will produce very useful information like the average amount that you expect to bet over the season, the average and median profit one would expect as well as the probability of going bankrupt and making a profit.
Also shown is the probability of having your bank finish at different amounts. For example one can work out the probability of their bank doubling in size, tippling or even quadrupling in the year.
You can download the program for free as shown below (program requires Microsoft Excel 2000 or later):
Calculating Odds Programs
If you are familiar with European odds (e.g.. $1.72, $3.50) then download this file:
If you are familiar with American odds (e.g..–200, +350) then download this file: