Archive for the ‘Sport Models’

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    NRL Model Analysis
    NRL betting has got off to a good start, thanks to Manly getting up at 3.77, here’s an analysis of the model: . . . . . Prob#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI 00.222313.6%$867.49$332.3638.3% 0.20.31222722.1% $9,597.37 $898.429.4% 0.30.42427229.8% $26,368.45 $8,620.20 32.7% 0.40.538314738.4% $51,333.72 $9,164.64 17.9% 0.50.626110741.0%...
    by at March 21st, 2011 at 12:03 pm
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    Sportpunter NRL Model analysis – last year and last three years
    Sportpunter’s model for NRL has been going since 2003, and since that time we have managed to make over 10% ROI betting on head to head. We’ve talked a bit about the favourite long shot bias in the sport, both last year and this year, where betting at odds of 4.00 and above seem to be very profitable. But the above was largely betting blind. The NRL model hasn’t...
    by at March 9th, 2011 at 12:03 pm
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    NRL – Odds Biased towards outsiders
    The NRL season for 2011 starts this weekend and Sportpunter will be providing the predictions once again. But first, a little pre season analysis. We previously showed that there is a massive bias in odds against the outsiders, so much so that backing the large dogs in NRL proved to be very profitable over the years. So has this trend continued last year in 2010 or is...
    by at March 7th, 2011 at 12:03 pm
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    ATP Injury analysis
    In previous articles we have looked at how well the new upgraded ATP model has done against certain probabilties and overlays. This analysis can be found linked on the right hand side of this page: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/tennis/ However another interesting piece of information is how well the model goes based on our injury ratings. Sportpunter’s tennis model...
    by at January 4th, 2011 at 01:01 pm
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    More ATP analysis – Favourites by Overlays
    Previously we talked about how the new upgraded ATP model did based on certain probabilities and overlays. This analysis is shown here. Today we shall show you how the ATP model goes for favourites based on overlay. Shown below are tables, each one for when a bet is suggested for certain probabilities. We can have a look at the overlays of these occurrences and judge...
    by at January 2nd, 2011 at 01:01 pm
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    New ATP Analysis from 2005-2011
    The ATP tennis season starts in only a few days with the Hopman Cup set to start on new years day. Previously I had a look at how the new model had done last year with good results. Today, I have the results going back to the start of 2005. Results are shown below, and I’ll give a brief description of them first. Profits for when the probability was between 0 and 0.1...
    by at December 28th, 2010 at 12:12 pm
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    New ATP tennis model analysis
    We’ve already had a look at the new upgraded wta model, and the results since the upgrade were fantastic. Only 91 bets were suggested in the latter half of 2010 with the new wta model, but with a 21% return on investment, the new wta model is looking very promising. Our previous analysis of the new wta model is shown here. But today we will be looking at the newly upgraded...
    by at December 22nd, 2010 at 01:12 am
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    Minimum Overlay in College Basketball
    With college basketball starting strong we thought we’d do some analysis on the college basketball since we started posting predictions way back in 2003. Since then, there have been a few years that have been haphazard, but more recently all bets have been recorded. Shown below is in the minimum overlays for betting the totals for NCAAB, both in total, as well as separated...
    by at November 22nd, 2010 at 02:11 pm
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    NCAA – College Basketball season starts
    Sportpunter’s model for the College Basketball in America is giving predictions away for free again this year. Previous years has seen great results, especially with totals betting. With 600 to 1000 bets a year, theres plenty of turnover available, despite the fact that any one bet has to be relatively small. Profits have been good with 8.3% ROI being made over the...
    by at November 16th, 2010 at 10:11 am
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    NBA Sports Betting Model
    Sportpunter are about to release predictions for NBA with a brand new sports model. NBA is one of the most bet sports in the world and with many games being played every day, the possibility of high turnover is great. Bookies will generally offer lines of 1.95 and better and liquidity isn’t regularly a major problem. We have analysed the last 4 years of data using hold...
    by at October 26th, 2010 at 01:10 pm
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