College Basketball Overs betting Analysis
We previously looked a college basketball totals betting as well as focusing on unders betting. Today we will look at how well we have done suggesting bets on the overs.
The data below show our betting history for overs betting.
Overs
Prob #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
45.0% 50.0% 18 7 38.9% $986.44 -$73.62 -7.5%
50.0% 52.5% 79 42 53.2% $5,225.12 $697.77 13.4%
52.5% 55.0% 392 217 55.4% $28,446.51 $2,925.13 10.3%
55.0% 57.5% 400 188 47.0% $40,604.49 -$2,376.97 -5.9%
57.5% 60.0% 172 98 57.0% $25,824.62 $3,045.98 11.8%
60.0% 62.5% 54 26 48.1% $10,293.41 -$593.04 -5.8%
62.5% 65.0% 20 12 60.0% $4,472.75 $409.05 9.1%
65.0% 67.5% 7 3 42.9% $2,116.50 -$93.18 -4.4%
67.5% 70.0% 3 2 66.7% $879.77 $110.05 12.5%
70.0% 100.0% 0 0 #DIV/0! $- $- #DIV/0!
1145 595 52.0% $118,849.59 $4,051.18 3.4%
Odds #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
1.50 1.75 4 4 100.0% $547.27 $396.38 72.4%
1.75 1.80 3 3 100.0% $297.21 $233.15 78.4%
1.80 1.85 14 6 42.9% $1,913.04 -$586.32 -30.6%
1.85 1.90 49 23 46.9% $5,755.73 -$251.48 -4.4%
1.90 1.95 547 285 52.1% $56,603.13 $2,065.30 3.6%
1.95 2.00 273 142 52.0% $26,113.44 -$372.42 -1.4%
2.00 2.05 141 72 51.1% $14,699.04 $1,729.43 11.8%
2.05 2.10 44 29 65.9% $4,746.60 $1,479.26 31.2%
2.10 2.15 45 22 48.9% $5,004.85 $146.87 2.9%
2.15 5.00 25 9 36.0% $3,169.30 -$788.99 -24.9%
1145 595 52.0% $118,849.59 $4,051.18 3.4%
Overlay #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0.0% 7.5% 443 235 53.0% $28,165.07 $1,306.73 4.6%
7.5% 10.0% 251 117 46.6% $22,612.12 -$1,807.43 -8.0%
10.0% 12.5% 174 98 56.3% $19,981.80 $2,674.15 13.4%
12.5% 15.0% 104 62 59.6% $14,545.55 $2,972.24 20.4%
15.0% 17.5% 80 37 46.3% $13,150.12 -$963.92 -7.3%
17.5% 20.0% 37 19 51.4% $7,129.24 $28.08 0.4%
20.0% 22.5% 27 12 44.4% $5,652.62 -$552.03 -9.8%
22.5% 25.0% 12 7 58.3% $2,776.94 $470.54 16.9%
25.0% 30.0% 12 6 50.0% $3,251.14 $74.13 2.3%
30.0% 2000.0% 5 2 40.0% $1,584.98 -$151.31 -9.5%
1145 595 52.0% $118,849.59 $4,051.18 3.4%
Av.Game Year #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 2 7 2 28.6% $806.19 -$282.35 -35.0%
2 3 19 11 57.9% $2,450.12 $312.53 12.8%
3 5 93 51 54.8% $12,143.05 $1,340.17 11.0%
5 7.5 104 53 51.0% $12,591.42 -$19.92 -0.2%
7.5 10 135 74 54.8% $15,202.40 $1,774.81 11.7%
10 15 251 128 51.0% $25,433.11 $268.66 1.1%
15 20 223 123 55.2% $20,953.59 $1,510.47 7.2%
20 25 166 79 47.6% $14,351.84 -$1,250.45 -8.7%
25 30 123 65 52.8% $12,255.97 $750.91 6.1%
30 1000 24 9 37.5% $2,661.90 -$353.66 -13.3%
1145 595 52.0% $118,849.59 $4,051.18 3.4%
Similar properties exist to that of the analysis of unders betting. Almost 1/3rd of the betting is done on the overs, and a smaller but still very good 3.4% ROI is made. Overlays greater than 30% resulted in no profit, although with a sample size of only 5 bets, nothing substantial can be made from this.
However what is more interesting is that for overlays of 15% or more, a 3.3% ROI loss was recorded. What does this mean? Well it means that higher overlays for overs betting does not necessarily result in higher profits. The reason, as discussed before could well be due to team changes and injuries. A team that changes with an injured team is more likely to score less than normal, and if bookmakers adjust for this, it could see how model with a larger overlay on the overs.
Betting with an overlay between 5% and 15% for overs resulted in a 6% ROI, which is very good.
So the conclusion to be made from betting college basketball? Be careful about the larger overlays. I wouldn’t recommend not betting them at all, but rather restricting the bet size.
Sportpunter’s free College Basketball predictions are shown here
