College Basketball Unders betting Analysis

Model, Sport Models | sportpunter | March 1, 2010 at 3:57 pm

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We previously looked at College basketball totals betting and where and when it is profitable. Overall a 5.5% ROI was made, but interestingly some of the larger overlays failed to return a profit. Is this the case for over and unders betting? We will do the analysis and for unders it is shown below.

Unders
	Prob	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
45.0%	50.0%	11	6	54.5%	$769.13	$230.49	30.0%
50.0%	52.5%	85	41	48.2%	$6,088.16	$80.40	1.3%
52.5%	55.0%	669	336	50.2%	$47,145.71	$289.93	0.6%
55.0%	57.5%	909	478	52.6%	$91,370.03	$4,283.37	4.7%
57.5%	60.0%	470	260	55.3%	$69,179.40	$6,732.28	9.7%
60.0%	62.5%	217	116	53.5%	$42,503.57	$2,304.61	5.4%
62.5%	65.0%	89	57	64.0%	$21,640.37	$5,813.87	26.9%
65.0%	67.5%	44	24	54.5%	$12,953.01	$1,323.67	10.2%
67.5%	70.0%	17	7	41.2%	$5,827.47	-$1,291.60	-22.2%
70.0%	100.0%	21	10	47.6%	$9,535.93	-$554.67	-5.8%
		2532	1335	52.7%	$307,012.76	$19,212.35	6.3%

	Odds	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
1.50	1.75	3	2	66.7%	$522.40	$165.41	31.7%
1.75	1.80	8	6	75.0%	$1,180.72	$12.73	1.1%
1.80	1.85	45	25	55.6%	$5,672.83	-$103.29	-1.8%
1.85	1.90	142	84	59.2%	$19,391.43	$1,382.29	7.1%
1.90	1.95	1394	737	52.9%	$170,504.54	$11,496.17	6.7%
1.95	2.00	616	310	50.3%	$70,786.96	$2,243.25	3.2%
2.00	2.05	183	96	52.5%	$21,408.05	$917.98	4.3%
2.05	2.10	52	28	53.8%	$6,177.99	$1,007.72	16.3%
2.10	2.15	61	34	55.7%	$7,117.94	$1,861.74	26.2%
2.15	5.00	28	13	46.4%	$4,249.92	$228.35	5.4%
		2532	1335	52.7%	$307,012.76	$19,212.35	6.3%

	Overlay	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0.0%	7.5%	751	396	52.7%	$48,955.11	$1,828.80	3.7%
7.5%	10.0%	547	265	48.4%	$49,762.61	-$2,077.40	-4.2%
10.0%	12.5%	411	217	52.8%	$48,148.36	$2,562.06	5.3%
12.5%	15.0%	265	149	56.2%	$37,591.13	$4,461.25	11.9%
15.0%	17.5%	183	97	53.0%	$31,005.04	$2,197.32	7.1%
17.5%	20.0%	134	76	56.7%	$25,979.79	$3,464.28	13.3%
20.0%	22.5%	88	49	55.7%	$19,068.66	$2,406.83	12.6%
22.5%	25.0%	45	33	73.3%	$10,951.50	$5,159.05	47.1%
25.0%	30.0%	65	33	50.8%	$18,741.66	$274.05	1.5%
30.0%	2000.0%	43	20	46.5%	$16,808.89	-$1,063.91	-6.3%
		2532	1335	52.7%	$307,012.76	$19,212.35	6.3%

Av.Game Year		#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	2	10	4	40.0%	$1,410.87	-$461.15	-32.7%
2	3	32	15	46.9%	$5,286.20	-$262.31	-5.0%
3	5	155	92	59.4%	$25,168.08	$5,099.27	20.3%
5	7.5	201	94	46.8%	$29,548.40	$1,031.00	3.5%
7.5	10	296	157	53.0%	$38,875.95	$1,295.38	3.3%
10	15	593	325	54.8%	$70,011.65	$6,900.72	9.9%
15	20	584	303	51.9%	$64,891.48	$3,021.37	4.7%
20	25	435	224	51.5%	$46,867.42	$372.83	0.8%
25	30	221	116	52.5%	$23,870.04	$1,190.95	5.0%
30	1000	5	5	100.0%	$1,082.69	$1,024.28	94.6%
		2532	1335	52.7%	$307,012.76	$19,212.35	6.3%

Over 2/3rds of the betting is done on unders betting and results are greater than that of overs. A 6.3% ROI is made over all, which is incredibly good considering the large turnover from over 2500 bets.

What is most interesting is that higher probabilities along with associated higher overlays still didn’t make a profit. We are talking about a small sample size again of 100 bets, but it would seem the model has certain variables that are not accounted for, which could explain the large overlays not being successful. These could be, amongst other things, injuries or returning players.

The current College Basketball model does not factor players into account, and gamblers might well want to be aware of any changes to teams. Even so, a decent profit is made betting the predictions as we give them. I would suggest smaller bet amounts for larger overlays.

We’ll have a look at the unders bets tomorrow.

Sportpunter’s free College Basketball predictions are shown here