Soccer over betting minimum overlays based on League Level

Model, Sport Models | | February 23, 2010 at 1:58 pm

The last article I wrote about soccer was about betting the totals, more specifically the unders. We grouped the leagues into different divisions based on popularity and decided what the minimum overlay would be to bet on the unders for certain groups.

In this article we will do the same thing but look at the overs. Overs never performs as well as unders in most sports, and as shown below one can see how it has gone in the last 365 days based on each group.

Group1Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.0751927137% $12,193.40 -$1,775.78 -15%
0.0750.11768448% $15,736.06 $731.775%
0.10.1251385439% $15,841.13 -$737.29-5%
0.1250.15903943% $12,460.37 $132.821%
0.150.175522038% $8,600.03 -$1,557.84 -18%
0.1750.2331648% $6,067.95 $294.845%
0.20.22521629% $4,319.81 -$1,115.94 -26%
0.2250.2512650% $2,661.01 $321.5412%
0.250.313646% $3,387.90 -$211.82-6%
0.31006350% $1,951.31 $91.075%
TOTAL73330542% $83,218.97 -$3,826.63 -4.6%
Group2Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.07536817146% $22,509.16 $574.813%
0.0750.128514250% $24,606.41 $2,536.33 10%
0.10.12523610444% $26,098.46 -$3.200%
0.1250.151867440% $25,307.67 -$2,567.31 -10%
0.150.1751366548% $21,909.36 $1,032.80 5%
0.1750.2974546% $18,010.03 $923.355%
0.20.225592847% $12,713.85 $310.492%
0.2250.25372157% $8,910.27 $1,983.65 22%
0.250.3382463% $10,059.09 $3,673.62 37%
0.3100181161% $5,593.65 $2,184.66 39%
TOTAL146068547% $175,717.95 $10,649.20 6.1%
Group3Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.07524812550% $16,317.36 $938.726%
0.0750.12029849% $18,068.47 $108.041%
0.10.1251778649% $20,154.52 $1,325.39 7%
0.1250.151326045% $18,462.91 -$340.93-2%
0.150.1751285442% $21,230.58 -$1,766.51 -8%
0.1750.2813442% $15,464.85 -$1,341.06 -9%
0.20.225603660% $12,294.11 $2,592.93 21%
0.2250.25482858% $11,141.79 $2,641.75 24%
0.250.3582441% $14,993.02 -$492.64-3%
0.3100592746% $21,225.66 $1,679.91 8%
TOTAL119357248% $169,353.27 $5,345.60 3.2%
Group4Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.075824251% $5,692.94 -$534.89-9%
0.0750.1743953% $7,088.71 $350.035%
0.10.125643250% $7,227.69 $63.991%
0.1250.15432047% $6,099.43 -$95.51-2%
0.150.175362158% $5,952.14 $1,128.25 19%
0.1750.2322166% $6,006.50 $1,985.27 33%
0.20.225201155% $3,666.73 $655.1418%
0.2250.2520840% $4,581.18 -$595.83-13%
0.250.3191158% $5,510.37 $991.3018%
0.310012650% $4,132.14 $640.8816%
TOTAL40221152% $55,957.83 $4,588.63 8.2%
Group5Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.07514857% $1,474.63 $24.272%
0.0750.111436% $1,297.43 -$333.12-26%
0.10.12512975% $2,200.73 $577.1426%
0.1250.157229% $1,017.42 -$479.73-47%
0.150.17511100%$176.15$160.3091%
0.1750.22150%$475.14$97.8321%
0.20.22522100%$467.41$434.4493%
0.2250.252150%$485.02-$100.34-21%
0.250.3200%$559.34-$559.34-100%
0.310000$-$-
TOTAL532853% $8,153.27 -$178.55-2.2%

As osoccer8ne can see from above, the results are a little different from that betting the unders. Firstly, it is clear that in Group1, there doesn’t seem to be any minimum overlay to bet an over bet. Betting over 22.5% overlay produced a small profit, but with only 31 bets, it is hard to come to any conclusion about this. It is probably best just to skip the overs bets or maybe use a 30% minimum overlay for Group1.

Group2 seems to profit well from a minimum of 15% overlay, whilst Group3 performs best at 20% minimum overlay. Group4 has good profits from 7.5% or maybe 15% and up, whilst Group5 performs the best from 15% minimum overlay plus.

It’s all a bit mixed up isn’t it? What should happen is that as the Group level becomes higher (and less professional), the minimum overlay to bet should decrease.

Hence in order to keep the above rule in place, one option would be not to bet at all on Group1 overs, bet on matches in Group2 and 3 with a minimum overlay of 20%, and Groups4 and 5 with a minimum overlay of 15%.

This seems to perform quite well. It does mean that one would only bet 13.7% of the bets as normally suggested with a minimum 5% overlay across the board, but not betting when there is an edge is a key here.

So how well would we have done using the above rules since live predictions started on the 14/9/09? Very well. For totals we would have made 177 bets for 88 winners. $42,773 would have been bet for a profit of $2575.56 at 5.8% ROI.

For unders betting the results are better. 627 bets would have been made for 310 winners. $128,138 was bet for a profit of $8,097 profit at 6.3% ROI. Not bad for 5 months work.

For all the free predictions go to the Sportpunter soccer website today

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5 Comments

  1. Hareeba says:

    Thanks for all this analysis Jon.
    Do you intend to look at the handicaps too?
    I’m keen to start basing my bets on the findings.
    How far away is an updated calculator to assist us to apply differential rules?

  2. sportpunter says:

    HI mate, yes the new calculator, when it arrives, will have all this info. I’m not sure about handicaps at this stage, although yes I will be doing analysis on it. I will wait till after the handicaps analysis before the calc comes out.

  3. Lowkey says:

    What about overs at 2 and 2.25 lines which showed to be profitable previously?

  4. sportpunter says:

    good question lowkey, I forgot to analyse by line. I will do that next as well!

  5. Lowkey says:

    Thanks Jon. I love all this analysis. More info on Kelly fractions for other models would be fantastic as well.

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