Soccer minimum totals overlays based on League Level

We previously looked at betting h2h in soccer and its returns based on league popularity. This time we will look at totals betting using the same five groups of leagues that we used previously. Results pre group are shown below:

Group1	Overlay	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.075	427	200	47%	$27,700.42	-$291.36	-1%
0.075	0.1	340	163	48%	$30,566.84	$15.20	0%
0.1	0.125	277	124	45%	$32,219.92	-$266.23	-1%
0.125	0.15	192	84	44%	$27,110.07	-$1,159.39	-4%
0.15	0.175	134	54	40%	$22,526.63	-$3,180.66	-14%
0.175	0.2	91	50	55%	$17,203.03	$2,310.45	13%
0.2	0.225	68	37	54%	$14,697.33	$2,454.50	17%
0.225	0.25	51	28	55%	$12,096.57	$2,369.23	20%
0.25	0.3	77	47	61%	$20,925.85	$5,892.19	28%
0.3	100	55	24	44%	$18,891.16	-$944.17	-5%
	TOTAL	1712	811	47%	$223,937.82	$7,199.76	3.2%
Group2	Overlay	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.075	718	348	48%	$45,745.87	$560.32	1%
0.075	0.1	599	300	50%	$53,660.59	$3,018.15	6%
0.1	0.125	445	203	46%	$50,743.54	-$50.40	0%
0.125	0.15	367	168	46%	$51,158.29	-$254.34	0%
0.15	0.175	270	129	48%	$44,874.35	$1,323.17	3%
0.175	0.2	215	110	51%	$40,348.63	$4,054.60	10%
0.2	0.225	126	58	46%	$27,048.37	$203.13	1%
0.225	0.25	86	46	53%	$21,066.58	$3,506.14	17%
0.25	0.3	92	51	55%	$25,176.64	$3,714.70	15%
0.3	100	76	40	53%	$25,825.44	$4,569.56	18%
	TOTAL	2994	1453	49%	$385,648.30	$20,645.03	5%
Group3	Overlay	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.075	512	269	53%	$34,341.27	$2,657.12	8%
0.075	0.1	380	191	50%	$35,142.24	$923.91	3%
0.1	0.125	314	157	50%	$36,999.64	$1,690.36	5%
0.125	0.15	252	119	47%	$35,736.14	-$247.22	-1%
0.15	0.175	238	105	44%	$39,883.60	-$2,336.56	-6%
0.175	0.2	151	74	49%	$29,029.51	$1,378.82	5%
0.2	0.225	96	53	55%	$19,897.77	$3,063.42	15%
0.225	0.25	71	41	58%	$16,755.73	$3,498.78	21%
0.25	0.3	84	35	42%	$21,434.81	-$621.04	-3%
0.3	100	91	46	51%	$31,191.06	$4,972.08	16%
	TOTAL	2189	1090	50%	$300,411.77	$14,979.67	5%
Group4	Overlay	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.075	172	80	47%	$12,145.65	-$1,952.15	-16%
0.075	0.1	147	73	50%	$14,475.37	-$124.11	-1%
0.1	0.125	125	59	47%	$14,854.52	-$790.82	-5%
0.125	0.15	87	45	52%	$12,474.38	$733.54	6%
0.15	0.175	68	41	60%	$11,139.96	$2,578.65	23%
0.175	0.2	56	35	63%	$10,283.77	$2,990.36	29%
0.2	0.225	33	19	58%	$6,439.81	$1,427.89	22%
0.225	0.25	27	11	41%	$6,190.96	-$779.70	-13%
0.25	0.3	35	22	63%	$9,155.46	$2,896.74	32%
0.3	100	17	8	47%	$5,599.23	$806.82	14%
	TOTAL	767	393	51%	$102,759.11	$7,787.22	8%
Group5	Overlay	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.075	46	24	52%	$3,905.12	-$115.81	-3%
0.075	0.1	37	23	62%	$3,618.17	$748.27	21%
0.1	0.125	38	23	61%	$5,491.03	$469.74	9%
0.125	0.15	27	11	41%	$3,802.24	-$407.98	-11%
0.15	0.175	12	5	42%	$1,943.30	-$88.35	-5%
0.175	0.2	13	9	69%	$2,402.52	$1,022.62	43%
0.2	0.225	13	9	69%	$3,018.51	$1,295.99	43%
0.225	0.25	4	3	75%	$902.67	$388.39	43%
0.25	0.3	6	1	17%	$1,551.49	-$659.51	-43%
0.3	100	6	4	67%	$3,034.96	$641.33	21%
	TOTAL	202	112	55%	$29,670.01	$3,294.69	11%

For starters once again we have good profit in all the different groups which is great, and also once again the percent return seems to increase as the group size becomes less popular from 3% ROI in Group 1 up to 11% ROI in Group 5.

Looking within groups we can also find some interesting results. In Group 1, a loss was made betting totals with an overlay of 17.5% or less. A 3% ROI loss was made in this circumstance, however it is noted that when the overlay is above this figure, a 14.4% ROI profit has been made. Same sizes are relatively smallish here, with 342 bets with a 17.5% ROI minimum overlay for Group1, but analysis seems to suggest that a greater minimum overlay for totals bet in group1 might be advantageous.

This minimum overlay doesn’t seem to occur in Group2 with all areas producing great profits. Higher overlays recorded greater %ROI’s which is great to see. Similar results are shown in Group3.

Group4 has negative results for overlays less than 12.5% ROI, but considering the great results of neighbouring groups3 and 5, one could say that this is merely due to random variation. Just goes to show that even with hundreds of bets, random variation still plays a very large part. Group5 has limited data, but it would seem that all bets seem to be profitable across the overlays.

So the conclusion to be made here? I would say bet all groups at minimum 5% overlay, however increase that minimum to 17.5% or 20% for the most popular leagues that you think deserve to be in Group1.

As for expected profits. All are pretty consistent over the groups. Group1 has an expected ROI, or average overlay of 12.8%. Group2 has 12.7%, Group3 13.5%, Group4 13.0% and Group5 13.1%.

This is quite surprising that it is so low considering the large %ROI achieved in some of the groups. Put simply this means that the optimal Kelly fractional to bet with in each of these groups is as follows:

Group1 – 12.8 / 3.2 = 3.97

Group2 – 2.37

Group3 – 2.71

Group4 – 1.72

Group5 – 1.18

This in my opinion shows how strong the Sportpunter totals model actually is. Considering your bank balance, I don’t recommend on betting anywhere near a 1.18 Kelly fractional – this is very close to betting at full Kelly. A small sample size might have something to do with it, but the results are very promising indeed. I’m sure the optimal Kelly fraction would decrease for Gorup1 if a minimum overlay of 20% was implemented for the bets

Either way, I see no reason to not have a consistent Kelly fraction amongst all of the groups.