Soccer minimum overlays based on League Level

Model, Sport Models | | February 11, 2010 at 10:50 am

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Previously we talked about not quite getting as good 1×2 profits betting on the more popular and more professional leagues. We did manage to win evenly across the board betting totals which is a great result. However more analysis is obviously required in the head to head betting.

So based on the groups given previously, I decided to have a look at the results for minimum overlay per group. The results are shown below.

Group1Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.07536213136% $20,025.60 -$1,505.48 -8%
0.0750.12628733% $16,879.89 -$1,171.55 -7%
0.10.1541416039% $33,632.34 $4,830.59 14%
0.150.23279629% $29,896.26 -$1,583.59 -5%
0.20.33638423% $34,331.27 -$2,735.62 -8%
0.30.42154722% $23,853.78 -$588.40-2%
0.40.5872023% $10,847.67 $1,905.38 18%
0.50.751101917% $13,712.50 $531.874%
0.75120210% $2,210.05 $130.576%
110020525% $4,972.18 $2,626.52 53%
TOTAL218065130% $190,361.54 $2,440.29 1%
Group2Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.07555122140% $26,540.52 $1,808.68 7%
0.0750.150717535% $34,488.99 -$3,426.25 -10%
0.10.1576127636% $60,773.20 $1,773.69 3%
0.150.256618332% $57,773.94 -$3,205.87 -6%
0.20.368021331% $79,741.21 $4,806.14 6%
0.30.435710128% $48,845.36 $3,684.38 8%
0.40.51904021% $24,537.20 $655.883%
0.50.752064522% $30,295.73 $4,930.67 16%
0.751621016% $11,145.95 $103.311%
110029310% $6,268.86 -$1,803.84 -29%
TOTAL3909126732% $380,410.96 $9,326.79 2%
Group3Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.07538415440% $19,716.13 $513.563%
0.0750.132511234% $20,526.14 -$1,290.43 -6%
0.10.1557221938% $45,593.43 $4,727.70 10%
0.150.241013433% $36,638.91 $1,691.69 5%
0.20.354816330% $63,141.87 -$91.890%
0.30.43068327% $38,859.15 $3,976.34 10%
0.40.51673420% $20,385.67 -$167.40-1%
0.50.752424820% $34,355.20 $3,459.68 10%
0.751701217% $11,884.29 $936.368%
1100711115% $18,521.98 -$544.00-3%
TOTAL309597031% $309,622.77 $13,211.61 4%
Group4Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.0751647143% $10,573.62 $153.161%
0.0750.11316046% $12,342.20 $1,174.19 10%
0.10.151857339% $16,958.98 $1,820.18 11%
0.150.21886434% $19,984.33 $66.110%
0.20.31705633% $19,765.21 $1,864.14 9%
0.30.41293527% $18,563.02 -$1,007.34 -5%
0.40.5611525% $8,423.87 $620.887%
0.50.75802531% $11,366.80 $7,025.83 62%
0.75128829% $4,337.63 $3,926.09 91%
11008338% $2,222.97 $2,715.78 122%
TOTAL114441036% $124,538.63 $18,359.02 15%
Group5Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.075332061% $3,508.14 $875.7025%
0.0750.1412151% $4,909.99 $310.696%
0.10.15452147% $4,564.12 $674.8615%
0.150.2492245% $6,995.75 $928.3813%
0.20.3421229% $5,915.61 $366.466%
0.30.439718% $6,557.69 -$2,116.38 -32%
0.40.5261350% $5,617.73 $3,852.19 69%
0.50.7531929% $7,602.22 $845.4511%
0.75115533% $4,154.20 $2,367.06 57%
11007343% $2,749.91 $2,746.29 100%
TOTAL32813341% $52,575.36 $10,850.70 21%

The table above is quite interesting. It still shows the same pattern that more money is made on less favourable leagues, but also suggests that different minimum overlays should be used for different leagues.

In group1, a minimum overlay of 40% is optimal. All bets below this amount lost 1.7% ROI. For group 2, a minimum overlay of 20% is optimal, whilst group3 has a minimum overlay of 10% being the best option. The smaller leagues of group4 and group5 show 5%, which is the standard, as being the best minimum overlay.

So perhaps we should adjust for the professionalism and popularity of the league when betting on the head?

Also interesting to analyse is the optimal Kelly amount.

In total we have an expected ROI of 23.7%. This is basically the average of all the overlays. In reality however the record shows that we have only made 5.1% ROI. Hence the optimal Kelly fractional is 23.7 / 5.1 = 4.6, which is quite high.

But looking at different leagues we get different results. For Group1, the expected ROI is 21.4% with the actual win% being at 1.3%. This means an optimal Kelly fractional of 16.7

Group2 has an expected ROI% of 22.2% compared to an actual %ROI of 2.5% and an optimal Kelly fractional of 9.0

Group3has an expected ROI% of 26.6% compared to an actual %ROI of 4.3% and an optimal Kelly fractional of 6.2

Group4 has an expected ROI% of 23.8% compared to an actual %ROI of 14.7% and an optimal Kelly fractional of 1.6

Group5 has an expected ROI% of 29.6% compared to an actual %ROI of 20.6% and an optimal Kelly fractional of 1.4

So we have optimal kelly fractionals ranging from 16.7 down to 1.4 compared to the different leagues. I wouldn’t recommend betting anywhere near 1.4 kelly for Group5, however the 16.7, 9 and 6.3 kelly fractionals are all reasonable.

Considering the minimum overlay recommendations for Groups 1 to 3, we can work out the optimal kelly fractional given these minimum overlays for these groups.

For group 1 and minimum 40% overlay, our expected ROI increases up to 63.4% ROI. Our actual ROI was at 16.4%, which means our optimal kelly fractional to be 3.9

For group 2 and minimum 20% overlay, our expected ROI increases up to 39.1% ROI. Our actual ROI was at 6.2%, which means our optimal kelly fractional to be 6.3

For group 3 and minimum 10% overlay, our expected ROI increases up to 32.4% ROI. Our actual ROI was at 5.2%, which means our optimal kelly fractional to be 6.2

So we dont have to bet at high kelly fractionals to get good results. Note that for Group1, there is a limited number of matches that have overlays greater than 40% – only 237. So accross the board, it would seem that a kelly fractional of around 6 would be most ideal. One could change this based on the type of group, and of course based on the bank balance and one’s sense of risk.

If you dont understand any of the above, don’t stress, but a slight understanding will start you on the way to be a better gambler.

We’ll look into the above for totals next.

The soccer model at the moment is completely free. Check out the free predictions here.



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1 Comment

  1. Games Online Play Free says:

    I am a newbie to playing which means this sort of info is very helpful.

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