College Football Model

American Football Close up on Field with yard lines in the distance

American Football Close up on Field with yard lines in the distance

The College Football season has started, and once again we will be providing predictions for free. Last year was our first year and results were mixed. Whilst h2h betting and line betting lost, totals came out slightly ahead. We’ve done a quick analysis of line betting and totals and results are shown below.

Totals betting seemed to work better with a minimum overlay of 7.5%. This would make the results record a 1.5% ROI. Keep in mind that we are talking about one season here and only 306 bets, so it is hard to say with any certainty about the patterns that we are attempting to find to maximise our profits. Interestingly, we can also look at the days since the first date of the season.

In the first 2 weeks (up until day 14), the totals model was losing at a rate of 21% ROI from 65 bets. After this is showed great form in the middle season making 6.2% ROI from 241 bets from week 3 onwards. This is good news, it could well be that the model takes a little while to get used to the new teams each season. Keep note that the last 2 sections, over 2 months since the season started, recorded losses , but with a sample size of just 43, it’s hard to draw any concrete conclusions here.

Unfortunately line betting failed to show any real profits from anyway of looking at it. We will continue to monitor and make predictions for head to head, line and totals betting, and hopefully do better at it this season. Analysis of totals and line betting are shown in these links.

Predictions are free, and the competition starts today! Details here

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