Sportpunter’s NFL Season 2015 analysis

Model, Sport Models | | September 7, 2015 at 11:21 am

nfl-online-e1427242784519The NFL Season is set to start this Thursday and once again we will be providing predictions for the entire season. Whilst our betting history shows some really good figures – making 1.8% ROI betting the line over five seasons and making 5.8% ROI betting totals, with each season being a winner – analysis of the results prove that there is more to it than that.

We stated before the start of last season, that by waiting until round 6 to bet totals, and a little later for line betting can drastically increase your profit over the season. And had you followed this the you would have made an incredible 15% ROI last year betting on totals.

In fact, we’ve decided to do some analysis into how the model has gone over the five years based on round. Shown here are the results for totals betting and line betting alike.

It shows that betting from approximately rounds 3 to 6 show the greatest profit. That said betting from the word go isn’t that much less than waiting a few rounds. When looking at how the model has gone when waiting until round 6 (as previously prescribed), it shows a significant increase in profit in all years but 2011. For three years in a row the model has made over 13% ROI each year.

There can be no doubt that the totals model for NFL is indeed very profitable.

As for line betting, the results aren’t quite as good but still very profitable indeed. It seems that line betting is a little more variable. A 1.8% ROI profit could have been made betting from word go, however if one was to wait until round 11, then a 5.8% ROI profit could have been made and a little higher profit betting only the second half of the year.

Analysis by year shows that when waiting until round 11, 2011 and 2013 making massive profits in excess of 20% ROI+, however 2012 losing by about the same margin. 2010 made 4% and last year broke around even. Such variability is understandable when we are talking about less than 100 bets a year waiting for round 11.

That being said, totals betting shows clearly amazing results, whilst line betting is profitable, although somewhat more variable.

Hopefully we will have another fantastically profitable 2015.
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