Sportpunter

The most anticipated season for Sportpunter punters is now open for subscription. With the preseason competition set to start this Wednesday night, you can get all the player based predictions from our website.

Whilst the predictions for preseason will not officially be put into our betting history, there could be some scope, especially with the new player based model, to get early value for a competition that would be hard for bookies to accurately price up.

In fact, it seems that they don’t price up the regular season that well either. The record for Sportpunter’s AFL model is second to none. Just take a look at the incredible results here: http://www.sportpunter.com/result-history/afl-results/

It shows that last year was our second best head to head betting season since we’ve been predicting since 1999. We made 22.6% return on investment (ROI) last year, and over the scope of 15 years of betting history have made an incredible 11.0% ROI.
Line betting results are even better. For the second year in a row we have made over 20% ROI for the year, also making 22.6% ROI in what has been our best year ever. The last 5 years alone have made over 18.5% ROI from 723 bets. Amazing.

Places could well be limited, so make sure you sign up for Sportpunter’s AFL Model here to get all the preseason predictions. http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/afl/
Super15s season starts this weekend

The super15s rugby union season starts this weekend and Sportpunter will be once again giving predictions for free. Last year was almost our best year ever with head to head betting making a very nice 20.5% ROI. In fact the last three seasons have averaged 9% ROI. A full betting history is shown here http://www.sportpunter.com/result-history/rugby-union-results/ with predictions and season information shown from the main Super 15s website: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/rugby-union/

We wrote previously about how the Russian and Finish hockey totals results were not too flash. And the reason was simple, the database did not have enough data to come up with accurate results, and hence every expected value of goals it predicted for every match was the same.

This made the ice hockey model look terribly bad. Russia itself had lost 16% ROI from 403 bets alone. But since the previous article we have upgraded the leagues of these two, and how have they gone since?

Swimmingly!

Russia has made 3.1% ROI from 108 bets, whilst Finland has made 10.6% ROI from 66 bets. In fact, all the leagues have done amazingly well since the update at 9/12/13. The handicap or line market has made 5.4% ROI from 519 bets, and the totals have made a staggering 9.2% ROI from 601 bets. Totals alone has made nearly $7,500 in this period (based on $1k bank, full Kelly).

What’s more is that the European ice hockey model is free. So knock yourself out.

Full details and betting histories are shown here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/ice-hockey/euro/

The ATP tennis season is about to start once again, and we thought we’d analyse how well the model has gone by month. There have been suggestions that the model has done better earlier in the tennis season and faded away a little bit at the end due to motivational issues. Is this the case? Well we thought we’d analyse it.

Shown below is a table of all results going back to the start of 2006, and the profits we have had per month. Whilst the table shows some good info, it might be easier to see on the following two graphs, which look at profit per month and %ROI per month. Analysis to follow

Clearly it shows that a large amount of the profit is made up in the first 7 months. In fact just over 80% of the profit has come from this. If you include month 12 as the start of the season (because the only ATP matches held in this time are ones just after Christmas – start of a new season), then the result is even more highlighted.

Apart from February, almost all months in this time have at least a $10,000 profit and significant %ROI over 5%. Then in months 8 and 9 (August and September), the profit drops off a but down to about 1-2% ROI before rebounding again for the end of season in October and November.

The amount of bets made in September is clearly less than other months, so this can highlight the issue around this time. What is interesting is that the US Open generally starts in late August, so it seems that the lead up matches to the US Open as well as post US Open matches, and perhaps the US Open itself, do not quite return the same amount as other months.

But given that, one could conclude that post Australian Open the same issues occur in February. Could this all be a motivation issue? There is a long way between drinks between the Australian open and the next major the French Open. Likewise, post US Open, apart from prize money, there might be little for some players in regards to motivation.

But then again, this could all just be random variation. Maybe it’s something to store in the back of the mind coming into the 2014 season.
2014 tennis subscriptions are available now. Get the details here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/tennis/

It’s basketball season, and what a cracker of a start we have had with our Sportpunter basketball models. Let’s go through them one at a time

NBA

Incredible results early in the season. We told you previously that early in the season has the best results, and aren’t we getting them! H2h betting has amassed a massive 34.6% ROI profit for the year so far, with big wins in the last few days on Boston (9.65) and the Lakers (11.75). Line or handicap betting isn’t far behind with 17% ROI made early, and whilst totals took an early hit the first week has recovered well for a small loss so far. All the betting histories are shown here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/basketball/nba/

NBL

NBL results were ordinary in the first week, but for those who persisted thank goodness that you did. Using pinnacle sports odds only, we have made a massive 43% ROI so far from 21 bets betting h2h with some big outsiders coming home that we rated as should be the favourite. Handicap betting has also made a healthy profit at 18% ROI whilst totals have made a steady 16% ROI so far this year. It’s a long season, and has only just started, so get on board now to get the rewards. Details here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/basketball/nbl/

Euro Basketball

With more than 30 leagues of predictions going up every day, there are plenty of opportunities to make some value bets. Once again using Pinnacle Sports odds, we have made a 4.9% ROI betting h2h in 2013 from nearly 1500 bets. Impressive stuff. Line betting has made 2.7% ROI, but the big winner has been totals betting, making 7.9% ROI from 1571 bets so far this year.

This isn’t a one off either. We’ve been predicting for 3 years now, and the records speak for themselves, with equivalent profits made every year. Over 3500 bets is a decent sized history don’t you think? The Euro Basketball model is free to get the predictions, so head over here to get them every day: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/basketball/euro/

NCAAB

American College basketball has just started their new season, and once again we are predicting every day. Updates will be at 3.30am and 9.00am Australian Time, in order to get the best and most available odds. Those wishing to get up early have good reason, whilst for those in America, it’s the perfect time to bet on a long term profitable model.

This is now our 11th year in a row of predicting NCAAB, and results have been very good over that time. Whilst line betting has always struggled, it’s the totals that have most punters excited about. From over 8000 bets in the 11 years, we have made 6.0% ROI betting on totals. The NCAAB model is available for free, so full betting histories and details are available here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/basketball/college/

So welcome to the basketball season punters, and hopefully your profits will continue like past years
Best of punting luck

The 2013/14 NBA season starts tonight and what better way to get involved them some profitable totals bets. We’ve analysed the last three years and it seems that the very start of the season is the most profitable. Check out the tables at the end of this post.

For totals betting, in the last three months of the calendar year, our totals model has had 683 bets for a 9% ROI. That’s incredible stuff, and there seems to be no reason why it won’t continue this year. Line betting in Oct/Nov/Dec has made 3.6% ROI from 682 bets, whilst h2h betting on NBA in these three months have made an amazing 11.6% ROI from 524 bets.

It’s quite clear, that if you want to get ahead with betting for the NBA, then the very start of the season is the best time to get the edge with Sportpunter’s NBA model.

What’s more, at this stage, the predictions are completely free of charge. Head over to this website to be part of the winnings in 2013/14: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/basketball/nba/