Betfair Multi Deal

betfairBetfair have a new deal on their multi’s. If you make a five way multi bet before the 25th of Jan, then if you only get 4 of the multi’s correct, then betfair will refund your stake. Put simply, its a good deal.

If for example, we bet on five tennis players at 1.10 and lets assume that there is an 89% chance that each one of them will get up, this gives the bookmaker with a 2.1% edge.

However, the chances of all five coming home are 0.89^5 = 56%. The chances of four getting home is 5 * 0.89^4 * 0.11 = 34.5%. The odds one would get multing five 1.10 players together is 1.61

Hence, the expected return from a $20 bet is equal to $4.89. That means you have a 24% edge using the free return of the bet if four get through.

Only $20 can be refunded, and the bets have to be all on tennis. Click here to bet with betfair.

Posted in News, Sport News | 2 Comments

Triple J hottest 100 2009 predictions

It’s coming around to Autriplejhottest100stralia Day once again which is one of my favourite days of the year! Why? Not because I love all things Australian – which I almost do – but because I especially love alternative music.

Now I know that this is a gambling website, and I do intend on having some gambling tips in this article, but what I am really talking about is the Triple J Hottest 100.

For those who don’t live on this sunbaked island, Triple J is an alternative youth based radio station that holds the most famous countdown of the best songs of the year. You can read all about the hottest 100 here: http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/hottest100/09/ and you can even get a vote in (which helps when you are betting on the best song as well!)

In the past, I’ve done pretty good out of the hottest 100. Last year I bet strongly on Kings of Leon’s Sex on Fire which started around odds of 1.75 only to drift to 2.00. In 2007 Muse’s Knights of Cydonia only defeated favourite Silverchair’s Sraight Lines by 8 votes, and I lost a small amount on that bet.

But its been good for me in the past. In 2006, I hit on the “all others” option, believing that it was crazy the Augie March’s One Crowded Hour wasn’t listed and picked up odds of 17 to 1.

Previous years to this showed that in order to make it to the number one position, it is all about timing and commercial radio play. In 1998 when the Offspring released Pretty Fly for a White Guy (ahh-haa, ahh-haa), the song got more than twice the amount of votes as the song in second position. The song was released on November 9th, only a month before the Hottest 100 voting began and was an instant success.

Some things die hard though, and about another month later and it was the most hated song on the radio.

Timing is everything.

Which brings me to this years list. If the voting had started and finished at the start of the year, then Lilly Allen’s Not Fair (17.00) would have easily won. Such classic lyrics and catchy tune would have won the hottest 100 by a country mile. But Allen is old hat now, and several other tunes are fresher on people’s minds. You can get 41.00 on the Gossips Heavy Cross, which would have also won had the vote been mid year. Every channel was playing this song non stop. At least 10 remixes from DJ’s wanting to jump on the wagon helped them gain more and more radio airplay. So overplayed they were that the song is virtually not played on radio today.

Similarly, everyone has forgotten that Eskimo Joe’s song Foreign land is actually votable. It was released in April and since then has long been forgotten. Sportingbet haven’t even priced them up, but the song would have been top 5 if the vote count was mid year.

Phoenix was voted by Triple J voters as the best album of the year, and despite having a few big hits from the album, all sound quite similar and don’t exactly stand out. They could well get three top 20 listings, but it is hard to see them get the number 1 spot.

Muse is second favourite (4.00) with their song Uprising. It’s their best song off the album and has had significant airplay. Muse, my favourite band of all time, released this song in early September. But interestingly, in 2007, they hit the number 1 position in the hottest 100 with Knights of Cydonia that was released at prime time – mid/late November. Arguably, Knights of Cydonia is a better song than Uprising (although not as commercially played), so Muse is not a bet for me.

Favourite to hit the number one spot is Mumford & Suns Little Lion Man which has come in massively from odds of 2.80 to 1.50. I wouldn’t have listed this song in my top 3, so a bet on them is in my opinion of little value.

So who has released their song late, that is catchy and that everybody loves? Probably the song Home by Edward Sharpe and the Magnetic Zero’s. Although the album with the song was released mid year, Home has only been played in the last few weeks. So much has this caught bookies by surprise in that bookmakers failed to price up the song, which meant that odds of 126.00 would have been available. Since then it is available at odds of 17.00 or even as short as third place favourite 6.50 at spotingbet. That is some odds movement!

I’m not sure how much commercial airplay it has received, but for me, in a no real standout Hottest 100 list, it provides the best value.

Go for The Gossip as an outsider at 41.00 and hit on Home. Two big outsiders. Don’t forget the prawns on the barbie (or my Australian speciality – Dim-sims cut in half), and don’t go easy on the beverages.

As for my top 10 songs of the year 2009? Here they are:

  1. Röyksopp – The Girl and the Robot
  2. Karnivool – Set Fire to the Hive
  3. Silversun Pickups – Panic Switch
  4. Manchester Orchestra – I’ve Got Friends
  5. Doves – Kingdom of Rust
  6. Muse – Uprising
  7. Lilly Allen – Not Fair
  8. Eskimo Joe – Foreign Land
  9. La Roux – Tigerlily
  10. Edward Sharpe & Magnetic Zeros – Home

Apologies to Sarah Blasko’s All I want, Dead Letter Circus’s Space on the Wall,  every song by Karnivool and Röyksopp and how Phoenix didn’t get on the list I’ve no idea.

Odds are available at Sportingbet, Centrebet and Betchoice.

Posted in Blog, Gambling Blog | 6 Comments

Over/Under bias in NHL Ice Hockey

Many people know about the favourite/longshot bias that occurs in most sports, but little is talked about the overs/unders bias. Is there in fact a bias at all? We shall investigate.

Using data going back to the 2005/06 season, we have calculated the returns should one have simply bet $100 on either of the over or under in the total goals for the match. Which one will come up better? The results are shown below with the first table being the over bets, the second being the unders:

Season#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
2005/06119757048% $119,700.00 -$7,492.00 -6.3%
2006/07119656347% $119,600.00 -$7,736.00 -6.5%
2007/081250594.548% $125,000.00 -$6,628.00 -5.3%
2008/09126062450% $126,000.00 -$1,575.00 -1.3%
2009/1057527047% $57,500.00 -$3,197.00 -5.6%
Total54782621.548% $547,800.00 -$26,628.00 -4.9%
Season#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
2005/06119762752% $119,700.00 $2,672.00 2.2%
2006/07119663353% $119,600.00 $3,811.00 3.2%
2007/081250655.552% $125,000.00 $1,291.00 1.0%
2008/09126063650% $126,000.00 -$3,381.00 -2.7%
2009/1057530553% $57,500.00 $808.001.4%
Total54782856.552% $547,800.00 $5,201.00 0.9%

Clenhl2arly, this shows that had one bet $100 on each bet on the over, you would have lost around 4.9% ROI from nearly 5,500 bets. Alternatively, had you bet $100 on the unders, you would have made over $5,000 from nearly 5,500 bets. The bias is definetly there, that unders betting is if anything, the way to go.

Is it possible that this difference is purely due to random variation? Quite possibly, however there is a reason why the bias is there. No-one wants to see a low scoring game, everyone likes plenty of goals and will generally bet with what they want to see. Also, punters will generally remember the high scoring games, the great goals of the year and the best goalscoring players. This in turn biases them towards betting the overs. The fact that in NHL, if the scores are level at end time, we have a playoff, then this I believe, adds more fuel to the fire to say that the bias is there. Because even if the scores are level, there still will be one more goal scored.

For those statistically inclined, the difference is in fact statistically significant. A simple one sample p test shows that the probability of such a result happening due to random variation is less than 1 in a thousand.

So the bias is there, and we have good reason to suggest why it occurs.

Equally interesting, is how the bias works amongst different goal lines. Shown below is the results should one have bet $100 on the overs and unders for different goal lines. Once again, the top table is the over bets, the bottom table is the unders (that makes sense!)

Line#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
4.5171165% $1,700.00 $342.0020.1%
5719389.554% $71,900.00 $2,630.00 3.7%
5.52513115146% $251,300.00 -$17,590.00 -7.0%
61402670.548% $140,200.00 -$8,088.00 -5.8%
6.574336749% $74,300.00 -$2,168.00 -2.9%
78029.537% $8,000.00 -$2,018.00 -25.2%
7.54375%$400.00$264.0066.0%
54782621.548% $547,800.00 -$26,628.00 -4.9%
Line#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
4.517635% $1,700.00 -$416.00-24.5%
5719329.546% $71,900.00 -$5,060.00 -7.0%
5.52513136254% $251,300.00 $6,771.00 2.7%
61402731.552% $140,200.00 $3,307.00 2.4%
6.574337651% $74,300.00 -$807.00-1.1%
78050.563% $8,000.00 $1,631.00 20.4%
7.54125%$400.00-$225.00-56.3%
54782856.552% $547,800.00 $5,201.00 0.9%

Most of the bets have a goal line of 5.5 or 6, but the overs for a run line of 5 and below made a nice profit. 736 bets were made for a 4% ROI. I have little doubt, that this is because of an over adjustment by the bookies to a smaller runline due to perhaps several previous low scoring games by the teams involved. Once again, this difference is statistically significant and not due to random variation. Similarly, betting unders with run lines of 7 or above resulted in a 16.7% ROI profit from 84 bets. And once again, this is statistically significant and not due to random variation.

Such over-exaggeration from recent matches has forced the lines to move, and this is where we as punters can pick up on and make several value bets. In this short article, we haven’t even studied the teams and we are already picking up value bets that are statistically significant. I see no reason why this trend should not continue.

What will be interesting, is how the overs and unders work with soccer, basketball and many other sports. Will there constantly be value in all these sports? Let me know with you comments below.

Posted in Blog, Gambling Blog | 10 Comments

Soccer asian handicap analysis

soccer3Since going live on the 14/09/09, the soccer asian handicap model has basically broken even on 2677 bets. Considering the large profits made on the h2h betting, this is surprising, although it must be noted that asian handicapping is somewhat harder than simply betting on the team to win on the head. This is largely due to potential scoring ability of both teams.

More analysis into this area, and using the totals predictions will be used in the asian handicap side of the model in the not too distant future. Results are shown below.

Odds#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
11.81426445% $25,888.29 -$1,668.54 -6%
1.81.8520010050% $32,878.86 $1,006.10 3%
1.851.932617453% $53,348.08 $5,724.75 11%
1.91.9534015546% $56,027.04 -$2,772.88 -5%
1.95233314744% $53,565.57 -$1,488.12 -3%
22.0536916244% $57,095.55 -$506.64-1%
2.052.137715842% $55,186.12 -$875.22-2%
2.12.1526411744% $39,293.64 $677.392%
2.152.21687142% $26,647.71 -$1,022.62 -4%
2.21001586441% $26,155.84 -$133.95-1%
TOTAL2677121245% $426,086.70 -$1,059.73 0%
Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.07546422448% $30,109.42 -$3.260%
0.0750.140819548% $37,006.19 $495.031%
0.10.12533013641% $38,305.81 -$3,950.31 -10%
0.1250.1531914144% $45,076.27 -$2,131.13 -5%
0.150.17526312046% $44,605.59 $429.601%
0.1750.21858043% $35,052.25 -$1,057.14 -3%
0.20.2251697444% $35,638.76 -$479.79-1%
0.2250.251366850% $32,083.88 $3,483.21 11%
0.250.31867942% $50,825.69 -$978.89-2%
0.31002179544% $77,382.84 $3,132.95 4%
TOTAL2677121245% $426,086.70 -$1,059.73 0%
Line#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
-5-1411946% $5,305.07 -$625.04-12%
-1-0.5793241% $10,821.20 $303.183%
-0.5062728445% $89,262.57 $746.721%
00.2542815837% $70,149.66 $3,508.22 5%
0.250.528616457% $40,260.58 -$585.09-1%
0.50.7543421349% $61,379.40 -$1,264.08 -2%
0.75131914445% $57,661.60 $1,932.09 3%
11.252228337% $45,215.30 -$1,238.05 -3%
1.251.51156052% $19,929.37 -$2,307.00 -12%
1.551265544% $26,101.95 -$1,530.68 -6%
TOTAL2677121245% $426,086.70 -$1,059.73 0%

There is not a lot to talk about in the analysis as shown above. Lower odds are favoured, which could be because of smart money moving the odds to lower amounts. This shows that we might be on the right side of the market more often than not. Also the 2.2% ROI loss on odds of 2.15 and above accentuates this.

Overlays of 20% and 22.5% and above have resulted in profits of 2.6% and 3.5% ROI respectively which are good results.

Interestingly, betting on lines of 1.0 or greater showed strong losses: 463 bets for a 5.5% ROI loss. It would be interesting to see how this went betting on home or away teams. So conversely, betting on 0.25 lines or less resulted in a 2.2% ROI profit from over 1000 bets. Either way, the results are marginal at this stage for asian handicap betting. More data, and more analysis is clearly required.

Posted in Model, Sport Models | Leave a comment

Soccer totals analysis

soccer2Since going live on the 14/09/09 we have made 2482 bets on totals for a very small 0.2% ROI profit – basically break even. This therefore is a great reason to have a look at where the sportpunter totals model has gone good and where is has gone bad. The analysis of these bets is shown below:

#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
Over104148747% $130,107.14 $304.490%
Under144168948% $197,187.04 $279.840%
TOTAL2482117647% $327,294.18 $584.330%
Odds#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
11.81477954% $24,379.68 -$1,369.46 -6%
1.81.8518911259% $25,703.81 $3,588.02 14%
1.851.932214946% $44,835.19 -$2,324.64 -5%
1.91.9538418348% $52,219.54 $16.530%
1.95235317148% $44,853.77 $24.630%
22.0536316445% $49,265.87 -$1,987.09 -4%
2.052.128813145% $35,386.91 -$828.94-2%
2.12.152007538% $24,255.25 -$3,687.20 -15%
2.152.2854755% $10,708.99 $3,352.38 31%
2.21001516543% $15,685.17 $3,800.10 24%
TOTAL2482117647% $327,294.18 $584.330%
OverOdds#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
11.8331958% $6,503.67 -$556.57-9%
1.81.85361850% $4,914.23 -$255.14-5%
1.851.91004343% $13,181.89 -$1,409.46 -11%
1.91.951537851% $19,459.60 $1,995.70 10%
1.9521396849% $17,322.86 $564.773%
22.051728449% $22,433.94 $503.332%
2.052.11586843% $19,545.99 -$1,249.42 -6%
2.12.151304837% $14,657.53 -$2,933.88 -20%
2.152.2532751% $5,829.35 $977.2217%
2.2100673451% $6,258.08 $2,667.94 43%
TOTAL104148747% $130,107.14 $304.490%
UnderOdds#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
11.81146053% $17,876.01 -$812.89-5%
1.81.851539461% $20,789.58 $3,843.16 18%
1.851.922210648% $31,653.30 -$915.18-3%
1.91.9523110545% $32,759.94 -$1,979.17 -6%
1.95221410348% $27,530.91 -$540.14-2%
22.051918042% $26,831.93 -$2,490.42 -9%
2.052.11306348% $15,840.92 $420.483%
2.12.15702739% $9,597.72 -$753.32-8%
2.152.2322063% $4,879.64 $2,375.16 49%
2.2100843137% $9,427.09 $1,132.16 12%
TOTAL144168948% $197,187.04 $279.840%
Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.07558929049% $38,938.52 -$201.92-1%
0.0750.146622648% $42,670.36 $226.651%
0.10.12540618245% $48,350.67 -$2,677.48 -6%
0.1250.1529613947% $41,922.61 $193.090%
0.150.1752239241% $37,678.03 -$4,454.93 -12%
0.1750.21688752% $31,992.66 $2,469.46 8%
0.20.225904853% $19,131.13 $3,428.33 18%
0.2250.25683450% $16,300.20 $1,017.18 6%
0.250.31024746% $26,662.57 $849.103%
0.3100743142% $23,647.43 -$265.15-1%
TOTAL2482117647% $327,294.18 $584.330%
OverOverlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.07526313250% $17,091.95 $1,093.67 6%
0.0750.11989347% $17,655.06 $364.372%
0.10.1251737342% $19,694.67 -$1,155.09 -6%
0.1250.151255544% $17,048.09 -$522.82-3%
0.150.175934751% $15,217.68 $1,359.81 9%
0.1750.2673146% $12,682.85 -$355.99-3%
0.20.225372465% $7,434.07 $2,719.71 37%
0.2250.2523835% $5,279.17 -$923.40-17%
0.250.3341338% $8,861.82 -$1,046.52 -12%
0.3100281139% $9,141.78 -$1,229.25 -13%
TOTAL104148747% $130,107.14 $304.490%
UnderOverlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.07532615848% $21,846.57 -$1,295.59 -6%
0.0750.126813350% $25,015.30 -$137.72-1%
0.10.12523310947% $28,656.00 -$1,522.39 -5%
0.1250.151718449% $24,874.52 $715.913%
0.150.1751304535% $22,460.35 -$5,814.74 -26%
0.1750.21015655% $19,309.81 $2,825.45 15%
0.20.225532445% $11,697.06 $708.626%
0.2250.25452658% $11,021.03 $1,940.58 18%
0.250.3683450% $17,800.75 $1,895.62 11%
0.3100462043% $14,505.65 $964.107%
TOTAL144168948% $197,187.04 $279.840%
Line#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
1.7500$-$-
21114843% $13,200.38 $1,367.00 10%
2.2561229648% $73,731.61 $492.661%
2.5103451450% $129,769.15 -$3,742.81 -3%
2.7533715747% $49,293.82 -$551.79-1%
32489137% $41,043.70 $1,060.73 3%
3.25673958% $10,664.44 $812.168%
3.5372054% $5,225.53 $1,874.34 36%
3.752150%$233.88-$61.78-26%
400$-$-
TOTAL2448116648% $323,162.51 $1,250.51 0%
OverLine#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
1.7500$-$-
2683044% $7,681.70 $711.019%
2.2543720447% $53,523.91 $2,045.61 4%
2.537918749% $48,014.00 -$1,715.29 -4%
2.75592441% $7,309.10 -$1,545.17 -21%
3521427% $7,428.93 -$982.98-13%
3.25161275% $2,200.17 $625.0628%
3.5211152% $1,853.53 $1,660.58 90%
3.752150%$233.88-$61.78-26%
400$-$-
TOTAL103448347% $128,245.22 $737.041%
UnderLine#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
1.7500$-$-
2431842% $5,518.68 $655.9912%
2.251759253% $20,207.70 -$1,552.95 -8%
2.565532750% $81,755.15 -$2,027.52 -2%
2.7527813348% $41,984.72 $993.382%
31967739% $33,614.77 $2,043.71 6%
3.25512753% $8,464.27 $187.102%
3.516956% $3,372.00 $213.766%
3.7500$-$-
400$-$-
TOTAL141468348% $194,917.29 $513.470%

From the first table it shows that overs and unders have been equally profitable or maybe equally level. There doesn’t seem to be any major pattern with reference to better odds to bet. Perhaps a case can be made for betting with larger odds ( > 2.15), however the small sample size and the face that betting at odds of 2.10 to 2.15 negates this argument.

Having a greater minimum overlay definetly helps here. With a minimum 17.5% overlay, 500 bets were made for a profit of 6.4% ROI, and with a minimum 20% overlay 334 bets were made for a 5.9% ROI profit.

Interestingly, and maybe quite expected, most of these profits were made betting unders than overs. It has been the case in many sports, especially for example, baseball or ice hockey, that overs are bet more than unders and hence a bias occurs in the odds. It will be interesting, and we will look at it, to see if such a bias occurs here.

Overs with a minimum 17.5% and 20% overlays resulted in a -1.9% ROI and -1.6% ROI respectively, whilst Unders with the same overlays resulted in a 11.2% a and 10% ROI respectively.

Keeping in mind that the above unders bets were only 313 bets for 17.5%,  and 212 bets for 20% minimum overlays. Hence about 10% of the original number of bets.

Whilst restricting yourself to only 10% of the suggested bets might mean a leaner betting season, it could mean greater profits over the long term. The small sample size is something also to keep into account.

I wouldn’t completely change your betting strategy just yet. An analysis of the potential bias, and perhaps the bias in the greater or smaller leagues, would be well worth looking at first, which we will do.

Also interesting is the lines. Overs are profitable at 2.25 line’s and below. (505 bets at 4.5% ROI), whilst unders are profitable at the line of 2.75 and above (541 bets at 3.9% ROI).

Clearly to me this shows the market overcompensating for recent matches. I’ve seen this happen a lot in other under/over markets like baskeball and ice hockey, and it seems to be happening here. It could be just one high or low scoring match that makes the punters get on board, and the odds are moved to much in one direction for just the one match. This over compensation, gives us a good edge, and we will look at the bias in this in more detail in the future as well.

In conclusion, it would be great if overall the totals model recorded slightly better results, but perhaps restricting yourself to higher overlay under bets, as well as perhaps over bets at smaller lines, then one can obtain a greater profit.

To sign up to the soccer model, please click here.

Posted in Model, Sport Models | 3 Comments

Soccer h2h analysis

Since going live on thsoccer1e 14/9/09, sportpunter’s soccer predictions have gone very well indeed. Head to head betting has been the main avenue of success with 7.2% ROI made on 3451 bets. Totals betting has pretty much broken even in the same time frame, whilst asian handicap betting has lost marginally.

So why not do some analysis into the areas with different combinations on certain variables. This might well help us make more educated bets, not bet on certain matches given certain circumstances and also help me play with the model to produce better results.

So first up in this 3 part series, is the analysis of head to head betting. Whilst not as in depth as totals and asian will be, some will say it doesn’t need to be given the great results. The summary is given below:

Prob#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.13413%$623.66-$500.41-80%
0.10.24535211% $16,805.12 -$3,356.96 -20%
0.20.383816520% $50,147.00 $1,906.43 4%
0.30.475624833% $59,659.08 $10,980.07 18%
0.40.562824239% $63,689.76 $224.780%
0.50.641518545% $59,765.49 $327.381%
0.60.719110957% $39,813.69 $7,634.84 19%
0.70.8816681% $20,297.35 $6,001.79 30%
0.80.9463576% $16,103.92 $526.603%
0.919889% $4,595.03 $88.812%
TOTAL3451111132% $331,500.10 $23,833.33 7%
Odds#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
1238023662% $72,990.08 $5,278.45 7%
22.552222944% $66,091.76 $2,143.26 3%
2.5349219039% $50,778.77 $5,299.75 10%
33.534812636% $30,687.02 $5,695.46 19%
3.543199931% $22,340.90 $3,684.09 16%
44.52555923% $19,230.48 $919.025%
4.552273616% $16,484.11 -$2,267.86 -14%
562715320% $17,456.93 -$164.70-1%
6105618014% $32,747.12 $4,706.04 14%
101007634% $2,692.93 -$1,460.18 -54%
TOTAL3451111132% $331,500.10 $23,833.33 7%
Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.07551118536% $27,793.94 -$710.45-3%
0.0750.142515136% $29,669.53 -$1,034.00 -3%
0.10.1559722337% $44,953.42 $4,472.91 10%
0.150.251319037% $49,199.68 $5,591.83 11%
0.20.360918030% $68,067.43 $3,726.22 5%
0.30.43248426% $42,444.75 $966.182%
0.40.51693722% $21,878.11 $1,045.73 5%
0.50.752204420% $31,451.66 $2,880.24 9%
0.751631117% $10,129.65 $1,540.50 15%
110020630% $5,911.93 $5,354.17 91%
TOTAL3451111132% $331,500.10 $23,833.33 7%

As shown above, profits were made in vitually all fields. Big outsiders with probability less than 20% yielded a loss, as too did odds of over 10, and this might be looked at closer. In particular would be interesting is how big outsiders faired when away and home. I would imagine that home based big outsiders (although this very rarely and probably never occurs), would give a positive result.

In fact betting at odds of 4.5 or more only resulted in a profit if 1.1% ROI. Still a profit, but it would seem the best results occur with odds lower than this amount and realistic opportunities for a win. Are outsiders bet more than favourites so that mug punters try to win big? The favourite/longshot bias might well be playing a significant factor here, in that the shorter the odds the more likely of a potential profit, irrespective of any of Sportpunter’s suggested bets. We’ll have a look at that in the future, but for now, it seems that betting on all ranges of odds and probabilities is successful, moreso on favourites.

Higher overlays resulted in greater profits which is great to see. A good model should clearly show this. The 91% ROI profit for 100%+ overlays is interesting, and on closer examination, there are a few daggers or maybe nuggets in a few bets. I note that following bets made with high overlays and strong probabilities:

DateLeagueTeam1Team2OddsProb$BetResult$ProfitOverlayCheck?Error?
23/10/2009wales1RhylCefn Druids782.2%792.160-792.16475.3%XX
7/11/2009wales1Port Talbot TownCaersws4.567.3%579.2812027.5202.7%XX
26/10/2009greece2Ethnikos Asteras FCPAE AO Kerkyra5.2556.1%457.640-457.64194.5%X
22/11/2009ecuador1Manta FCLiga de Quito3.576.4%670.1411675.36167.5%X?
29/11/2009russia1Rubin KazanKuban Krasnodar3.265.7%501.0931102.4110.2%X

Clearly the two wales bets have the odds around the wrong way, and hence these would not have been normal bets. The Greek bet seems legit, the Russia bet is possibly legit, whilst I cannot find odds on the Ecuador bet either confirming or denying its legitimacy.

These will come up from time to time in the program, so its important to look out for them. Either way, in 3500 bets, only 5 bets are suspect which is good. The profit for this according to the betting history would decrease the profit by $1235 only. So we still have great results for higher overlays.

Interestingly overlays less than 10% lost around 3% ROI. There might be a case for having a minimum overlay of 10% or probably better 7.5% considering the large profits made in the next section 10-20% overlays.

Either way, these are great results for head to head betting, and we will look closer at totals betting in the next post.

To sign up to the soccer model, please click here.

Posted in Model, Sport Models | 2 Comments

Happy New Year 2010

2010Happy New year for 2010!

And what do sportpunter have in store?

Well tennis has just started, so check out the subscriptions for 2010 to join in the rewards.

AFL/NRL and Super 14s will be back. NHL continues along its way, as does NBA and NCAA Basketball.

Golf will continue along with Soccer, and we will be releasing odds for netball as well, a sport in which we cleaned up last year.

Baseball will be completly re-evaluated, and we will have a NBA model. There is also a possibility of having European Basketball and well as European Ice Hockey. Horse Racing is on the agenda, and isn’t far off completion.

Either way, there are plenty of opportunities for Sportpunter in 2010, which should be our biggest and busiest year for a while!

Happy New Year!

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Tennis Analysis 2009 – Part 7

Shown below is the tables for the favourites for WTA tennis over the last five years and following of which is a brief description.

Overlay Prob 50-60% Overlay #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.05 187 103 55.1% $ 5,483.09 -$ 10.66 -0.2%
0.05 0.1 162 80 49.4% $ 12,680.28 -$ 707.00 -5.6%
0.1 0.15 133 58 43.6% $ 15,630.88 -$ 1,676.76 -10.7%
0.15 0.2 112 56 50.0% $ 16,990.05 $ 1,084.17 6.4%
0.2 0.25 95 38 40.0% $ 17,478.96 -$ 1,711.20 -9.8%
0.25 0.3 72 38 52.8% $ 15,026.87 $ 3,258.93 21.7%
0.3 0.4 105 43 41.0% $ 25,222.41 -$ 143.63 -0.6%
0.4 0.6 101 36 35.6% $ 28,447.42 -$ 1,337.69 -4.7%
0.6 1 37 16 43.2% $ 12,353.15 $ 4,420.16 35.8%
1 100 14 0 0.0% $ 5,709.38 -$ 5,709.38 -100.0%
TOTAL 1018 468 46.0% $ 155,022.50 -$ 2,533.05 -1.6%
Overlay Prob 60-70% Overlay #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.05 280 173 61.8% $ 11,996.12 $ 330.11 2.8%
0.05 0.1 250 145 58.0% $ 28,475.35 -$ 1,734.85 -6.1%
0.1 0.15 198 127 64.1% $ 34,366.97 $ 3,514.39 10.2%
0.15 0.2 122 73 59.8% $ 26,611.34 $ 2,299.14 8.6%
0.2 0.25 71 39 54.9% $ 18,286.69 $ 545.70 3.0%
0.25 0.3 65 32 49.2% $ 18,320.56 -$ 613.62 -3.3%
0.3 0.4 80 52 65.0% $ 25,310.97 $ 9,249.30 36.5%
0.4 0.6 68 33 48.5% $ 25,483.01 $ 2,872.70 11.3%
0.6 1 36 21 58.3% $ 15,962.25 $ 8,185.80 51.3%
1 100 5 2 40.0% $ 2,504.13 $ 1,001.42 40.0%
TOTAL 1175 697 59.3% $ 207,317.40 $25,650.10 12.4%
Overlay Prob 70-80% Overlay #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.05 328 238 72.6% $ 22,419.04 -$ 446.60 -2.0%
0.05 0.1 245 175 71.4% $ 41,611.68 $ 664.78 1.6%
0.1 0.15 174 116 66.7% $ 43,669.92 $ 8.47 0.0%
0.15 0.2 141 89 63.1% $ 43,376.03 -$ 724.98 -1.7%
0.2 0.25 84 52 61.9% $ 29,897.96 -$ 167.22 -0.6%
0.25 0.3 65 49 75.4% $ 25,359.42 $ 7,087.85 27.9%
0.3 0.4 52 31 59.6% $ 22,439.19 $ 1,638.99 7.3%
0.4 0.6 39 23 59.0% $ 18,788.79 $ 3,357.03 17.9%
0.6 1 25 13 52.0% $ 13,567.25 $ 3,113.33 22.9%
1 100 2 2 100.0% $ 1,147.62 $ 2,264.67 197.3%
TOTAL 1155 788 68.2% $ 262,276.93 $16,796.32 6.4%
Overlay Prob 80-90% Overlay #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.05 388 328 84.5% $ 45,369.26 $ 509.47 1.1%
0.05 0.1 254 199 78.3% $ 71,665.46 -$ 301.59 -0.4%
0.1 0.15 180 142 78.9% $ 68,259.20 $ 2,722.35 4.0%
0.15 0.2 118 98 83.1% $ 54,059.94 $ 7,407.69 13.7%
0.2 0.25 48 38 79.2% $ 24,366.01 $ 3,564.47 14.6%
0.25 0.3 39 24 61.5% $ 20,764.83 -$ 1,424.64 -6.9%
0.3 0.4 40 31 77.5% $ 23,005.45 $ 5,496.37 23.9%
0.4 0.6 18 10 55.6% $ 11,497.32 -$ 410.20 -3.6%
0.6 1 6 3 50.0% $ 4,157.84 $ 120.05 2.9%
1 100 5 5 100.0% $ 3,835.10 $ 6,703.78 174.8%
TOTAL 1096 878 80.1% $ 326,980.41 $24,387.76 7.5%
Overlay Prob 90-100% Overlay #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.05 351 333 94.9% $ 90,920.67 $ 2,261.42 2.5%
0.05 0.1 133 116 87.2% $ 66,711.05 $ 196.95 0.3%
0.1 0.15 86 72 83.7% $ 54,476.43 $ 597.32 1.1%
0.15 0.2 38 34 89.5% $ 24,396.55 $ 3,384.05 13.9%
0.2 0.25 22 18 81.8% $ 15,214.77 $ 1,361.51 8.9%
0.25 0.3 13 10 76.9% $ 9,662.98 $ 504.02 5.2%
0.3 0.4 5 4 80.0% $ 3,775.88 $ 574.97 15.2%
0.4 0.6 4 1 25.0% $ 3,126.92 -$ 1,820.43 -58.2%
0.6 1 0 0 $ $
1 100 0 0 $ $
TOTAL 652 588 90.2% $ 268,285.25 $ 7,059.81 2.6%

womenstennisApart from the probability range 50-60%, all ranges profited. Large profits were in fact recorded. In fact, when the probability was above 60%, 6.9% ROI was recorded from over 4000 bets. That is a great result indeed. Amazingly, when the probability was above 70% and the overlay above 100%, then all 7 bets won for fantastic results. Higher overlays here resulted in greater profits which is a great thing for an accurate model to show.

Interesting however is the 50-60% range, which failed to make a profit. Unfortunately none of the 14 bets with 100%+ overlay actually won, which one would think is fairly rare. Could it be that there was some injury news that might have stopped some punters making the plunge on these bets?

Once again, I feel that we could be nick-picking a bit here. When the probability was between 40-50%, and again between 60-70% a 12.9% ROI and 12.4% ROI was found respectively.  If we combine the 40% to 70% ranges, 3325 bets was made for a total of 8.1% ROI.

This is a great result, so I don’t feel that we should be looking to harshly at the 50-60% range considering that its neighbours all performed so well.

What could be interesting to some is the 2.5% ROI made on 351 bets when the probability is above 90%, and the overlay below 5%.  It could well be that all suggested bets with any overlay when the probability is large is profitable due to a very strong favourite/longshot bias.

In fact, should one have bet $100 on every favourite with odds under 1.10 in the past five years, you would have picked up a nice but small profit of $402 or 0.4% ROI. Sportputer clients might think about betting on all overlays for short priced favourites.

In summary, all bets for favourites for the WTA are very profitable, and hopefully we will see a great tennis season again in 2010.

Let us know what you think in the comments below.

Sign up to the Sportpunter Tenns Model by 31/12/09 to receive a free Sportpunter Polo shirt and free entry, along with myself, into day 1 of the Australian Tennis Open.

Posted in Sport Models | Leave a comment

Merry Christmas!

merrychristmasMerry Christmas to all! Personally I can’t wait for 2010 and the new decade. Sportpunter have lots of plans ahead, and hopefully you will be with us to win the awards. Best of luck to all over the silly season and have a fun day and a great new year…..

Jonathan Lowe…

Sportpunter

Posted in News | 1 Comment

Tennis Analysis 2009 – Part 6

When looking at the ATP analysis for the favourites, the data is shown below with a brief discussion following:

Overlay Prob 50-60%Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.0531016854.2% $8,354.41 -$116.16-1.4%
0.050.123611448.3% $18,503.13 -$789.72-4.3%
0.10.1520911856.5% $24,715.32 $3,785.48 15.3%
0.150.21828446.2% $27,730.66 -$257.90-0.9%
0.20.251215041.3% $21,556.05 -$1,496.39 -6.9%
0.250.3924144.6% $18,652.49 $955.285.1%
0.30.41555736.8% $36,699.97 -$3,866.22 -10.5%
0.40.61427653.5% $40,041.90 $17,305.16 43.2%
0.61641929.7% $21,659.77 -$995.08-4.6%
11008225.0% $3,162.71 -$227.10-7.2%
TOTAL151972948.0% $221,076.40 $14,297.35 6.5%
Overlay Prob 60-70%Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.0539024663.1% $16,425.86 -$3.460.0%
0.050.133419458.1% $37,185.94 -$1,298.69 -3.5%
0.10.1520311154.7% $34,549.59 -$2,014.82 -5.8%
0.150.21248871.0% $26,857.46 $7,696.79 28.7%
0.20.25773748.1% $19,193.79 -$1,599.41 -8.3%
0.250.3472655.3% $12,921.87 $1,428.25 11.1%
0.30.4773950.6% $24,102.28 $1,531.27 6.4%
0.40.6794658.2% $29,149.85 $10,079.84 34.6%
0.61261142.3% $11,457.57 $1,702.99 14.9%
1100400.0% $2,020.76 -$2,020.76 -100.0%
TOTAL136179858.6% $213,864.96 $15,502.00 7.2%
Overlay Prob 70-80%Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.0539728772.3% $25,340.54 -$704.02-2.8%
0.050.123918376.6% $40,745.16 $4,501.75 11.0%
0.10.1516011370.6% $39,582.71 $2,358.64 6.0%
0.150.2905662.2% $27,059.35 -$443.73-1.6%
0.20.25594067.8% $20,527.97 $2,126.82 10.4%
0.250.3301756.7% $11,524.19 -$404.54-3.5%
0.30.4322268.8% $13,355.16 $3,451.87 25.8%
0.40.619736.8% $9,001.15 -$2,301.09 -25.6%
0.6117635.3% $9,372.89 -$1,989.66 -21.2%
1100100.0%$658.26-$658.26-100.0%
TOTAL104473170.0% $197,167.38 $5,937.79 3.0%
Overlay Prob 80-90%Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.0529024283.4% $31,962.03 $843.432.6%
0.050.116013081.3% $43,877.81 $2,154.22 4.9%
0.10.15857284.7% $31,825.82 $3,961.21 12.4%
0.150.2685580.9% $29,340.91 $4,022.53 13.7%
0.20.25262076.9% $12,844.48 $1,650.55 12.9%
0.250.314964.3% $7,416.68 -$254.63-3.4%
0.30.410660.0% $6,049.96 -$230.79-3.8%
0.40.68450.0% $4,853.90 -$588.57-12.1%
0.6144100.0% $2,600.35 $2,788.48 107.2%
1100100.0%$707.49-$707.49-100.0%
TOTAL66654281.4% $171,479.46 $13,638.93 8.0%
Overlay Prob 90-100%Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.0517817196.1% $47,492.24 $1,209.08 2.5%
0.050.1544787.0% $25,576.47 $248.171.0%
0.10.15201680.0% $12,661.32 -$170.12-1.3%
0.150.2141285.7% $8,747.44 $902.1110.3%
0.20.2566100.0% $4,002.88 $1,373.17 34.3%
0.250.300-$-$--
0.30.4100.0%$700.42-$700.42-100.0%
0.40.6100.0%$733.27-$733.27-100.0%
0.6100-$-$--
110000-$-$--
TOTAL27425292.0% $99,914.04 $2,128.72 2.1%

menstennisHere one sees good profits amongst all groups. From 2.1% ROI in the 90%-100% range, to 8% ROI in the 80-90% range. There is little to be concerned of here. One may note that when the probability is under 70%, then the model has not been profitable when the overlay is under 10%. Punters may want to restrict their betting in these cases. However with massive profits obtained in the 10-15% overlay range when the probability is between 50 and 60%, and again between 70 and 80%, this could well be just a issue of random variation due to a small sample size.

Interestingly, when the overlay is greater than 60% and the probability greater than 50%, a 4.1% ROI loss was made. It is hard to look to closely at this, because just the next step down – when the overlay is between 40 and 60% – for the same probabilities, a 28.3% ROI profit was made.

It is hard to get any conclusive analysis except for the fact that the model is strongly positive for ATP for favourites. A similar analysis for WTA will follow in the next post.

Let us know what you think in the comments below.

Sign up to the Sportpunter Tenns Model by 31/12/09 to receive a free Sportpunter Polo shirt and free entry, along with myself, into day 1 of the Australian Tennis Open.

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