Betfair have a new deal on their multi’s. If you make a five way multi bet before the 25th of Jan, then if you only get 4 of the multi’s correct, then betfair will refund your stake. Put simply, its a good deal.
If for example, we bet on five tennis players at 1.10 and lets assume that there is an 89% chance that each one of them will get up, this gives the bookmaker with a 2.1% edge.
However, the chances of all five coming home are 0.89^5 = 56%. The chances of four getting home is 5 * 0.89^4 * 0.11 = 34.5%. The odds one would get multing five 1.10 players together is 1.61
Hence, the expected return from a $20 bet is equal to $4.89. That means you have a 24% edge using the free return of the bet if four get through.
Only $20 can be refunded, and the bets have to be all on tennis. Click here to bet with betfair.
stralia Day once again which is one of my favourite days of the year! Why? Not because I love all things Australian – which I almost do – but because I especially love alternative music.
arly, this shows that had one bet $100 on each bet on the over, you would have lost around 4.9% ROI from nearly 5,500 bets. Alternatively, had you bet $100 on the unders, you would have made over $5,000 from nearly 5,500 bets. The bias is definetly there, that unders betting is if anything, the way to go.
Since going live on the 14/09/09, the soccer asian handicap model has basically broken even on 2677 bets. Considering the large profits made on the h2h betting, this is surprising, although it must be noted that asian handicapping is somewhat harder than simply betting on the team to win on the head. This is largely due to potential scoring ability of both teams.
Since going live on the 14/09/09 we have made 2482 bets on totals for a very small 0.2% ROI profit – basically break even. This therefore is a great reason to have a look at where the sportpunter totals model has gone good and where is has gone bad. The analysis of these bets is shown below:
e 14/9/09, sportpunter’s soccer predictions have gone very well indeed. Head to head betting has been the main avenue of success with 7.2% ROI made on 3451 bets. Totals betting has pretty much broken even in the same time frame, whilst asian handicap betting has lost marginally.
Happy New year for 2010!
Apart from the probability range 50-60%, all ranges profited. Large profits were in fact recorded. In fact, when the probability was above 60%, 6.9% ROI was recorded from over 4000 bets. That is a great result indeed. Amazingly, when the probability was above 70% and the overlay above 100%, then all 7 bets won for fantastic results. Higher overlays here resulted in greater profits which is a great thing for an accurate model to show.
Merry Christmas to all! Personally I can’t wait for 2010 and the new decade. Sportpunter have lots of plans ahead, and hopefully you will be with us to win the awards. Best of luck to all over the silly season and have a fun day and a great new year…..
Here one sees good profits amongst all groups. From 2.1% ROI in the 90%-100% range, to 8% ROI in the 80-90% range. There is little to be concerned of here. One may note that when the probability is under 70%, then the model has not been profitable when the overlay is under 10%. Punters may want to restrict their betting in these cases. However with massive profits obtained in the 10-15% overlay range when the probability is between 50 and 60%, and again between 70 and 80%, this could well be just a issue of random variation due to a small sample size.
With over ten years of live betting history on the net, and large profits almost every year, the Sportpunter AFL model is the best anywhere to be seen. More than 10% ROI had been made and is on sale now at the 
Sportpunter's tennis model has been one of the longest running. Operating since 2003 it has made around 5% ROI over the years. And with many matches being played, it is a model that tennis betting enthusiasts need behind them.