Bias in ATP Tennis Grass Odds – Tennis Analysis Part 5

grassWith only a small profit made over the past 5 years on grass for ATP tennis, we decided to take a closer look at the analysis. The table below shows the analysis of all our grass bets over the last five years for ATP, with a description to come

GrassProb#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.100-$-$--
0.10.200-$-$--
0.20.300-$-$--
0.30.4641320.3% $9,932.10 -$2,501.86 -25.2%
0.40.5712129.6% $15,373.58 -$1,434.54 -9.3%
0.50.61205142.5% $23,245.82 $403.271.7%
0.60.7984849.0% $23,385.33 -$3,053.37 -13.1%
0.70.8755573.3% $21,374.76 $3,572.91 16.7%
0.80.9595084.7% $23,212.61 $2,944.06 12.7%
0.91121083.3% $6,548.18 $223.713.4%
TOTAL49924849.7% $123,072.38 $154.180.1%
GrassOdds#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
11.4595288.1% $22,090.22 $2,357.08 10.7%
1.41.7996767.7% $24,957.82 $1,366.45 5.5%
1.72573561.4% $12,641.54 $1,042.50 8.2%
22.25632234.9% $13,595.17 -$3,051.67 -22.4%
2.252.5432148.8% $10,571.04 $1,478.16 14.0%
2.53482143.8% $13,061.99 $2,887.09 22.1%
34762330.3% $15,166.38 -$347.96-2.3%
4649714.3% $9,663.55 -$4,252.81 -44.0%
610500.0% $1,324.65 -$1,324.65 -100.0%
105000-$-$--
TOTAL49924849.7% $123,072.38 $154.180.1%

Clearly this shows something that has long been suggested, in that grass is a favourites game. No wonder Sampras, Federer and a stack of pre-modern era players continually win on the green top.

Our analysis suggests that only bets of 70%+ probability have been profitable. This accounted for 13.2% ROI, with 146 of the 499 bets in total (29%). Similarly, only betting on favourites (where the odds are less than 2.0) resulted in 215 bets with 8.0% ROI. Betting on underdogs at odds of 3.0 or more, or even 4.0 or more provided very bad returns. 54 bets at odds of 4.0 or more resulted in a 50.7% ROI loss, with only a win happening only one in 8 bets.

Clearly on grass, these bets should be avoided. Simply by not betting on large outsiders (4.0 or more) increases the return from 0.1% ROI up to 5.1% ROI which is very acceptable.

I will leave it up to the individual what bets one might want to take here, but I am contemplating writing it into the program that only bets of 70% or greater probability be suggested. Keep in mind that it is a very small sample size for grass, and this could be why part of the problem occurs.

Interestingly, if one were to bet $100 on all the favourites on grass over the past 5 years, then you would have turned over $141,000 for a profit of $4,797 which equates to 3.4% ROI. Should one have bet $100 on all the underdogs, then your $141,000 would have yielded a loss of $29,291 for a -20.8% ROI.

A big difference indeed. Similarly, if one was to bet to win $100, then betting on the favourites would have put you back $718,693 for a nice profit of $20,133 or a 2.8% ROI. Betting on the underdogs to win $100 would have seen you fork out $20,133 for a loss of $9,780 or -14.7% ROI.

Seems to me to be a very big bias there. Perhaps our probabilities are generally pretty right., however it is the bias in the results that is causing such skew. It is important of course, when looking at biases in results not to think that this bias will stay for the long term. Once people start realising that grass court tennis strongly favourites the better player, then the odds will start to accommodate for this.

It may take a while, but at this stage, only betting on strong favourites seems to be most profitable.

Let us know what you think in the comments below.

Sign up to the Sportpunter Tenns Model by 31/12/09 to receive a free Sportpunter Polo shirt and free entry, along with myself, into day 1 of the Australian Tennis Open.

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Tennis Analysis 2009 – Part 4

Last week we looked at the successful WTA 2009 season, however today we will look at how the tennis model went in the last five years since 2005 to give a better overall idea of how the model works. The data is shown below in the tables, and following this will be a good write up for discussion.

Prob#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.119063.2% $3,728.07 -$1,543.09 -41.4%
0.10.25535910.7% $23,399.44 -$1,463.45 -6.3%
0.20.374913818.4% $49,989.88 $5,159.04 10.3%
0.30.494725226.6% $81,583.50 -$1,741.03 -2.1%
0.40.5113245239.9% $132,703.21 $17,130.20 12.9%
0.50.6101846846.0% $155,022.50 -$2,533.05 -1.6%
0.60.7117669759.3% $208,008.26 $24,959.24 12.0%
0.70.8115578868.2% $262,276.93 $16,796.32 6.4%
0.80.9109687880.1% $326,980.41 $24,387.76 7.5%
0.9165258890.2% $268,285.25 $7,059.81 2.6%
TOTAL8668432649.9% $1,511,977.43 $88,211.76 5.8%
Odds#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
11.41828152483.4% $513,586.44 $15,529.65 3.0%
1.41.7144396166.6% $308,013.07 $14,762.71 4.8%
1.7285348657.0% $159,646.56 $11,411.08 7.1%
22.2560730450.1% $100,946.86 $5,873.29 5.8%
2.252.552422743.3% $82,575.69 $8,667.67 10.5%
2.5383932038.1% $115,599.20 $19,216.00 16.6%
3490226529.4% $102,345.92 $7,931.06 7.7%
4676815019.5% $73,501.21 -$2,436.01 -3.3%
6104886813.9% $33,770.24 $6,769.31 20.0%
1050414215.1% $21,270.79 $1,208.45 5.7%
TOTAL8666432649.9% $1,511,255.97 $88,933.22 5.9%
Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.052093134064.0% $183,203.55 $2,319.89 1.3%
0.050.1152586656.8% $238,399.74 -$1,461.40 -0.6%
0.10.15114361954.2% $236,813.66 $4,568.55 1.9%
0.150.286944451.1% $191,022.56 $12,426.28 6.5%
0.20.2563226241.5% $132,535.01 $1,245.57 0.9%
0.250.347620743.5% $110,754.95 $8,553.20 7.7%
0.30.464724537.9% $142,518.04 $14,694.49 10.3%
0.40.666120831.5% $142,630.93 $14,917.62 10.5%
0.6139710727.0% $91,419.04 $21,267.18 23.3%
152222712.2% $41,573.81 $5,540.56 13.3%
TOTAL8665432549.9% $1,510,871.29 $84,071.94 5.6%
SP Rules
Prob#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.100#DIV/0!$-$-#DIV/0!
0.10.200#DIV/0!$-$-#DIV/0!
0.20.300#DIV/0!$-$-#DIV/0!
0.30.43588523.7% $53,545.50 $118.820.2%
0.40.540614335.2% $80,857.79 $15,539.98 19.2%
0.50.683136543.9% $149,539.41 -$2,522.39 -1.7%
0.60.789652458.5% $196,012.13 $24,629.13 12.6%
0.70.882755066.5% $239,857.88 $17,242.93 7.2%
0.80.970855077.7% $281,611.15 $23,878.29 8.5%
0.9130125584.7% $177,364.58 $4,798.39 2.7%
TOTAL4327247257.1% $1,178,788.44 $83,685.14 7.1%
Odds#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
11.487470881.0% $362,378.30 $13,512.37 3.7%
1.41.7105770967.1% $289,108.94 $14,203.80 4.9%
1.7269039457.1% $154,359.41 $11,430.27 7.4%
22.2545521847.9% $95,924.73 $4,507.77 4.7%
2.252.525111947.4% $64,736.10 $9,260.96 14.3%
2.5331513342.2% $80,683.83 $19,251.44 23.9%
3440812931.6% $77,894.03 $8,573.85 11.0%
462485823.4% $46,451.25 $977.052.1%
61025416.0% $5,732.58 $3,486.90 60.8%
1050300.0%$828.41-$828.41-100.0%
TOTAL4326247257.1% $1,178,097.58 $84,376.00 7.2%
Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.0500#DIV/0!$-$-#DIV/0!
0.050.1104471568.5% $221,143.82 -$1,881.71 -0.9%
0.10.1577151566.8% $216,403.40 $5,165.77 2.4%
0.150.253135065.9% $165,433.92 $13,450.07 8.1%
0.20.2532018557.8% $105,244.40 $3,593.27 3.4%
0.250.338719750.9% $106,336.52 $9,666.94 9.1%
0.30.450222745.2% $134,139.31 $15,435.02 11.5%
0.40.644817639.3% $126,800.29 $12,029.77 9.5%
0.612559035.3% $78,306.41 $18,913.73 24.2%
15681725.0% $24,289.51 $8,003.12 32.9%
TOTAL4326247257.1% $1,178,097.58 $84,376.00 7.2%
Surface
Hard2161122156.5% $573,500.45 $40,488.75 7.1%
Clay132178559.4% $379,762.23 $27,217.00 7.2%
Grass34219055.6% $85,252.23 $7,370.91 8.6%
I.Hard45424554.0% $124,063.16 $1,686.88 1.4%
Carpet493163.3% $16,210.36 $6,921.60 42.7%
TOTAL4327247257.1% $1,178,788.44 $83,685.14 7.1%
Overlay Prob 20-30%Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.051032221.4%$768.30-$172.59-22.5%
0.050.11012221.8% $2,317.63 -$183.27-7.9%
0.10.15691217.4% $2,489.89 -$588.69-23.6%
0.150.2651421.5% $3,235.21 -$90.95-2.8%
0.20.25651015.4% $3,803.27 -$1,036.43 -27.3%
0.250.34736.4% $3,099.41 -$1,994.65 -64.4%
0.30.4681420.6% $5,393.18 $638.1211.8%
0.40.61082220.4% $10,904.54 $2,148.46 19.7%
0.61641320.3% $8,215.58 $3,479.08 42.3%
110059610.2% $9,762.86 $2,959.96 30.3%
TOTAL74913818.4% $49,989.88 $5,159.04 10.3%
Overlay Prob 30-40%Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.051654225.5% $2,234.42 -$564.29-25.3%
0.050.11354331.9% $4,878.81 -$94.21-1.9%
0.10.15973030.9% $5,355.23 $37.940.7%
0.150.21012827.7% $7,544.98 -$621.12-8.2%
0.20.25912426.4% $8,024.56 -$618.17-7.7%
0.250.3611931.1% $6,482.61 $866.5113.4%
0.30.4881820.5% $11,031.41 -$2,876.63 -26.1%
0.40.6972525.8% $14,327.34 $1,274.79 8.9%
0.61882123.9% $16,074.62 $2,909.39 18.1%
11002428.3% $5,629.51 -$2,055.24 -36.5%
TOTAL94725226.6% $81,583.50 -$1,741.03 -2.1%
Overlay Prob 40-50%Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.051888947.3% $3,671.80 $487.3313.3%
0.050.11697443.8% $9,228.96 $431.004.7%
0.10.151355641.5% $11,264.27 $373.133.3%
0.150.21265140.5% $13,691.23 $594.054.3%
0.20.251083936.1% $13,989.16 -$295.29-2.1%
0.250.3722534.7% $10,719.25 -$12.11-0.1%
0.30.41324836.4% $23,354.00 $1,495.65 6.4%
0.40.61214839.7% $25,129.48 $8,093.57 32.2%
0.61631625.4% $16,191.30 $165.001.0%
110018633.3% $5,463.77 $5,797.87 106.1%
TOTAL113245239.9% $132,703.21 $17,130.20 12.9%

Uannakournikovanlike the mens analysis, all raw data without SP rules, showed good profits amongst almost all the probabilities (probabilities of 20% and below showed a loss), and all odds and overlays. Higher overlays resulted in higher returns which is a key for a good model to show.

When looking at the sportpunter rules, when the probability was between 30% and 40%, we basically broke even from 358 bets, we will look at this are more closely soon. All other probabilities showed good profits. Similarly all odds showed good profits, but also interestingly a loss was found when betting overlays between 5% and 10%. This loss was quite small (only -0.9% ROI), but with over 1000 bets it is sure to be significant. Perhaps a minimum 10% overlay for when probabilities are 50%+ should be undertaken.

All surfaces showed good profits.

When looking at the overlays when the probability of winning is between 20 and 30%, we can see that a minimum of 30% or 40% overlay shows a good profit. A minimum 40% overlay (to give some leeway to the big negative returns when the overlay is 20-30%) perhaps should be implemented.

For the 30% to 40% range, it would seem that the same 40%-50% minimum overlay range should be executed.

The 40-50% range interestingly shows a profit from even the 0% minium overlay. A 13.3%ROI when the overlay is less than 5% shows exactly what a low sample size can do. On average, the expected return could not be more than 5%, so the fact that the return in this period is so high is no doubt due to luck. There seems no reason why a minimum 10% overlay, to keep in line when the probability is greater than 50%, should not be used.

Hence, given the above, it is suggested that the new rules for WTA tennis betting in 2010 will be as follows:

Probability 40%+: min 10% overlay

Probability 20-40%, min 40% overlay.

Let us know what you think in the comments below.

Sign up to the Sportpunter Tennis Model by 31/12/09 to receive a free Sportpunter Polo shirt and free entry, along with myself, into day 1 of the Australian Tennis Open.

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Tennis Analysis 2009 – Part 3

agassiiWe previously looked at the year 2009 for ATP tennis, but now we will look at how well the model has gone over the past 5 years (since 2005). Note that this is based on head to head betting only and not set betting. Results are found below with commentary under that.

Prob#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.118942.1% $4,778.43 -$3,399.26 -71.1%
0.10.2786688.7% $42,333.89 -$9,007.09 -21.3%
0.20.3134924117.9% $104,173.93 -$14,307.25 -13.7%
0.30.4169949329.0% $160,272.71 $19,313.19 12.1%
0.40.5182168637.7% $207,648.29 $9,381.66 4.5%
0.50.6151972948.0% $221,076.40 $14,297.35 6.5%
0.60.7136179858.6% $213,864.96 $15,502.00 7.2%
0.70.8104473170.0% $197,167.38 $5,937.79 3.0%
0.80.966654281.4% $171,479.46 $13,638.93 8.0%
0.9127425292.0% $99,914.04 $2,128.72 2.1%
TOTAL10708454442.4% $1,422,709.49 $53,486.02 3.8%
Odds#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
11.4116597683.8% $248,013.75 $15,401.77 6.2%
1.41.7139091365.7% $228,813.64 $5,914.79 2.6%
1.72105159156.2% $148,511.56 $11,403.99 7.7%
22.2580638948.3% $112,618.37 -$955.62-0.8%
2.252.583334641.5% $110,795.00 $8,389.34 7.6%
2.53130150438.7% $163,327.65 $16,543.76 10.1%
34147343329.4% $164,852.18 $3,537.74 2.1%
46123126921.9% $125,653.19 $4,389.55 3.5%
6108419811.7% $72,406.08 -$8,160.46 -11.3%
1050583254.3% $46,392.68 -$1,653.46 -3.6%
TOTAL10674454442.6% $1,421,384.12 $54,811.39 3.9%
Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.052326138759.6% $139,661.16 $1,851.31 1.3%
0.050.1174787750.2% $193,474.74 $1,648.74 0.9%
0.10.15130563648.7% $181,582.29 $10,205.66 5.6%
0.150.2101145344.8% $161,054.98 $12,461.96 7.7%
0.20.2574927737.0% $121,118.73 $231.770.2%
0.250.354620537.5% $88,346.28 $7,665.85 8.7%
0.30.488726830.2% $152,444.45 -$2,117.70 -1.4%
0.40.695027428.8% $176,300.91 $21,728.61 12.3%
0.6169512217.6% $129,348.98 -$5,250.53 -4.1%
15487459.2% $78,355.93 $6,081.39 7.8%
TOTAL10703454442.5% $1,421,688.45 $54,507.07 3.8%
SP Rules
Prob#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.100#DIV/0!$-$-#DIV/0!
0.10.200#DIV/0!$-$-#DIV/0!
0.20.300#DIV/0!$-$-#DIV/0!
0.30.473318224.8% $112,098.68 $19,377.83 17.3%
0.40.560019532.5% $119,527.89 $8,012.63 6.7%
0.50.6120956146.4% $212,722.00 $14,413.51 6.8%
0.60.797155256.8% $197,439.10 $15,505.46 7.9%
0.70.864744468.6% $171,826.84 $6,641.81 3.9%
0.80.937630079.8% $139,517.42 $12,795.50 9.2%
0.91968184.4% $52,421.80 $919.641.8%
TOTAL4632231550.0% $1,005,553.73 $77,666.36 7.7%
Odds#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
11.443336684.5% $151,740.47 $13,919.51 9.2%
1.41.788758866.3% $205,394.41 $6,139.88 3.0%
1.7276043056.6% $139,799.52 $11,302.77 8.1%
22.2556827648.6% $105,100.18 -$545.53-0.5%
2.252.533714843.9% $76,937.10 $8,671.25 11.3%
2.5344018341.6% $104,639.56 $13,928.57 13.3%
3468920930.3% $124,645.22 $5,210.46 4.2%
4644510022.5% $79,886.37 $3,893.37 4.9%
610621117.7% $14,269.76 $2,596.95 18.2%
105011436.4% $3,141.15 $12,549.13 399.5%
TOTAL4632231550.0% $1,005,553.73 $77,666.36 7.7%
Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.0500#DIV/0!$-$-#DIV/0!
0.050.1102366865.3% $165,888.52 $4,815.73 2.9%
0.10.1567743063.5% $143,334.75 $7,920.38 5.5%
0.150.247829561.7% $119,735.82 $11,919.80 10.0%
0.20.2528915352.9% $78,125.17 $2,054.73 2.6%
0.250.342418042.5% $81,424.72 $6,107.46 7.5%
0.30.464723336.0% $136,233.56 -$563.54-0.4%
0.40.662023237.4% $149,858.75 $23,924.03 16.0%
0.6134810028.7% $94,992.44 $10,412.65 11.0%
151242419.4% $35,373.86 $11,661.25 33.0%
TOTAL4630231550.0% $1,004,967.59 $78,252.50 7.8%
Surface
Hard156277749.7% $322,145.31 $20,833.36 6.5%
Clay172390552.5% $395,111.49 $41,832.59 10.6%
Grass49924849.7% $123,072.38 $154.180.1%
I.Hard58627446.8% $111,400.82 $12,675.63 11.4%
Carpet26111142.5% $53,351.54 $2,642.79 5.0%
TOTAL4631231550.0% $1,005,081.54 $78,138.55 7.8%
Overlay Prob 20-30%Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.051444229.2% $1,131.33 $249.7722.1%
0.050.11312720.6% $3,010.53 -$382.22-12.7%
0.10.151162420.7% $4,166.89 -$355.90-8.5%
0.150.21052120.0% $5,040.75 -$259.84-5.2%
0.20.25921516.3% $5,331.18 -$1,175.84 -22.1%
0.250.3782228.2% $5,453.54 $2,077.12 38.1%
0.30.41542818.2% $12,485.84 -$621.88-5.0%
0.40.61923317.2% $19,334.24 -$53.75-0.3%
0.61192168.3% $23,909.66 -$9,593.68 -40.1%
1100145139.0% $24,309.98 -$4,191.06 -17.2%
TOTAL134924117.9% $104,173.93 -$14,307.25 -13.7%
Overlay Prob 30-40%Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.052217634.4% $2,714.04 $86.493.2%
0.050.12558633.7% $9,527.28 $427.974.5%
0.10.151926935.9% $10,927.58 $1,806.14 16.5%
0.150.21464329.5% $11,077.38 -$253.71-2.3%
0.20.251523724.3% $13,927.74 -$2,131.53 -15.3%
0.250.31213730.6% $12,787.59 $1,170.30 9.2%
0.30.41934824.9% $24,011.70 -$1,173.60 -4.9%
0.40.61894624.3% $28,301.25 $1,007.25 3.6%
0.611553522.6% $29,241.76 $4,439.75 15.2%
1100751621.3% $17,756.39 $13,934.12 78.5%
TOTAL169949329.0% $160,272.71 $19,313.19 12.1%
Overlay Prob 40-50%Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.0531013944.8% $5,897.26 $76.591.3%
0.050.12668732.7% $14,222.59 -$3,138.70 -22.1%
0.10.1526011042.3% $22,166.91 $1,339.14 6.0%
0.150.22158640.0% $23,488.48 $1,049.76 4.5%
0.20.251706940.6% $22,345.16 $2,042.23 9.1%
0.250.31205041.7% $18,121.89 $3,212.80 17.7%
0.30.41796134.1% $31,314.07 $424.351.4%
0.40.61825329.1% $37,777.43 -$845.29-2.2%
0.61822530.5% $20,660.10 $4,466.18 21.6%
110037616.2% $11,654.40 $754.606.5%
TOTAL182168637.7% $207,648.29 $9,381.66 4.5%

A lot of things can be discussed here. Note that because of the “Federer Factor”, betting on tennis players with probabilities under 30% was not profitable. Likewise, bets on players with odds of 6.00 or more was not profitable, and most likely for the same reason. This same reason once again means that it is hard to distinguish between profitable bets for the overlays, as low probability players with large odds are also most likely to have a large overlay.

Better to analyse the results under SP Rules, which looks at a 5% min overlay for all probabilities greater or equal to 50%, and a minimum 25% overlay for all probabilities between 30 and 50%.

Here we get some good results. A total of 7.7% ROI is very very good. Profits are found virtually amongst all probability and odds ranges. Similarly, all overlays had a good profit. It is good to see that the %ROI increased as the overlay increased which is what we would want.

As expected grass court only barely managed to make a profit, whilst all other surfaces did very well. Previously in the forum we talked about grass court and how favourites are more likely to win. Bets perhaps should be adjusted for this, we will talk about this more soon.

When looking at the near bet probabilities of 20% to 30%, we can see that no minimum overlays are profitable. Best to leave all these alone. Even the very high 100%+ overlays have not been profitable.

When the probability is between 30% and 40%, we note that higher range overlays are indeed very profitable. One can suggest a minimum 25% of perhaps 40% overlay for probabilities in this range, which is basically the same as what has previously been suggested.

Interesting to look at is the results for when the probability is between 40% and 50%. Higher overlays generally have a greater return despite the low sample size which is good, but results show that any bet under 10% overlay is not profitable. Previously we suggested bets only when the overlay is 25% or above for this range, but it seems that a minimum of 10% or even 15% to be conservative is more accurate.

I am thinking of changing the suggested bets to be as follows based on the above information:

Prob 50%: min 5% overlay

Prob 40%-50%: min 15% overlay

Prob 30%-40%: min 25% overlay

Let us know what you think in the comments below.

Sign up to the Sportpunter Tenns Model by 31/12/09 to recieve a free Sportpunter Polo shirt and free entry, along with myself, into day 1 of the Australian Tennis Open.

Posted in Model, Sport Models | 6 Comments

Betfair’s Christmas Bonus – Australian customers

Betfair-cricket-001Betfair have just started a christmas bonus page for all Australian (not NSW) and New Zealand customers. All you need to do is bet $5 on anything and each day you could win one of the prizes.

Prizes include:

  • Playstation 3’s & Xbox360’s
  • Ipods
  • Tickets to major sporting events such as the Australian Open
  • Account credits
  • much more

If you already have a betfair account then you can see all the prizes and which days they are on here

If you dont have a betfair account yet, sign up by following this link and get an extra signup bonus.

Specific Terms: Betfair’s Christmas Bonus.

  1. Due to legislative requirements, NSW residents are not eligible to participate in this promotion.
  2. All current Australian and New Zealand Betfair Pty Ltd (“Betfair”) customers (except for NSW residents) are eligible to participate in Betfair’s Christmas Bonus promotion.
  3. Prizes shown are for illustration purposes only, are subject to change and availability.
  4. Betfair reserves the right to replace any of the prizes with similar prizes of an equivalent value.
  5. The prizes are not transferable and there is no cash alternative available .
  6. All Australian customers who have claimed their prizes should receive their goods within 6 weeks of dispatch. The dispatch date will be within 1 week of the prize claim being submitted.
  7. All prizes will be dispatched to a delivery address of the customer’s choice provided it is in the same country as the customer’s Betfair registration details.
  8. Customers become eligible to win any of the prizes by placing a bet greater than the $5 minimum bet on certain dates. The relevant dates when bets must be placed in order to be eligible for the draw for that date are:
    Wed-16-Dec
    Fri-01-Jan
    Sat-16-Jan
    Sat-19-Dec
    Sat-02-Jan
    Sun-17-Jan
    Sun-20-Dec
    Sun-03-Jan
    Fri-22-Jan
    Mon-21-Dec
    Mon-04-Jan
    Sat-23-Jan
    Sat-26-Dec
    Tue-05-Jan
    Sun-24-Jan
    Sun-27-Dec
    Wed-06-Jan
    Tue-26-Jan
    Mon-28-Dec
    Sat-09-Jan
    Wed-27-Jan
    Tue-29-Dec
    Sun-10-Jan
    Sat-30-Jan
    Wed-30-Dec
    Fri-15-Jan
    Sun-31-Jan
  9. Customers must place a minimum bet of $5 on any exchange market during the above dates.
  10. The dates above refer to the 24 hours according to AEDT.
  11. There will be a separate draw on each of the above listed dates.
  12. Customers are only eligible to obtain one entry per each day draw.
  13. Customers will be notified by email and telephone if they have been successful in one of the draws.
Posted in News, Sportsbooks | Leave a comment

Australian Internet Censorship and Poker

internetcensorhipLast year, the Australian Labor party introduced an internet filtering system which it plans to implement to all Internet companies, thus making it illegal and impossible to view certain websites.

The main idea of the internet filtering service, or Great Australian Firewall, as it has been called, is to restrict access to child pornography, bestiality and violent sexual acts like rape. The morality and reasoning of such restrictions are debateable, but that is not the purpose of this article.

On March 18, 2009, Wikileaks published a list of websites that it claimed was the list of sites that the ACMA (Australian Communications and Media Authority) planned to ban, which was then adjusted some 6 days later.

On the internet forum Whirpool which discusses internet connections and companies, a post was made by a member linking to the Wikileaks published list of banned websites. The ACMA threatened Whirpool with $11,000 of fines per day if the link was not removed.

Outrage ensued as people started to realise that the list contained not only illegal sexual acts as described above, but also other websites like anti-abortion, poker and gambling websites.

Several other websites apparently on the list of banned websites were standard pornography sites, youtube links, certain Wikipedia pages, euthanasia websites and certain fringe religious sites like satanic, anti-Christian  and fetish sites.

The Labor Federal Government said that of the 1370 blocked websites, 674 were related to child pornography and 506 of the websites were classified as either R18+ or X18+, which is actually perfectly legal to view in Australia.

So why are we being restricted from perfectly legal adult sites that might not fit in with the Labor parties morality code? And what is it with gambling websites?

Is gambling online illegal in Australia? Well actually no. It is illegal for companies outside Australia to offer gambling to Australians, but not illegal for Australian companies to offer gambling to Australians because the Australian Government can regulate it.

Hence it is not illegal for Australians to play poker, but illegal for international poker companies to allow Australians to play. Betfair for example, in order to obtain a gambling licence in Australia had to disallow Australians from playing poker on their website. So this means that the internet filtering system aims to stop overseas companies doing illegal activity (even though they have no jurisdiction for them there) and stops Australians doing perfectly legal activities.

Word is, although I can’t say for sure, that the list of banned websites includes some of the biggest poker websites and casinos on the internet. You know the ones. It also bans a website that merely lists the possible poker websites that there are.

So not only is the Australian government possibly banning websites that are perfectly legal, but they are also possibly banning websites that list other websites that are perfectly legal.

What is the next stage? Banning websites that criticise the government? One has to wonder why certain youtube videos (which never display violence or sexual acts) or Wikipedia pages are presumably on the banned list.

But why stop there? It seems that the government are intent on banning any website that they can’t financially or moralistically regulate. Will UK bookies be the next to be on the banned list? Will we able to bet at Pinnacle or Olympic?

Will Australia do the same thing in reverse, as in ban Australian websites that show illegal activity in other countries? Perhaps we should ban all Australian websites that show females wearing pants, because it is illegal to do so in Sudan and is still today punishable by 40 lashes? Its laughable, but once a filtering system is in, who knows what webpages will be put on the list. Perhaps this article will not be able to be viewed in the future.

This has to stop. Whilst the banning of illegal activities like child pornography, bestiality and violent sexual acts is – as mentioned before – a debatable step, banning websites that are perfectly legal should be in itself, illegal.

As punters, some of us earn either a living or a livelihood from gambling. Others use it for making a little cash on the side or making the sports we watch more entertaining. Every punter should be strongly against such communist style internet censorship, and everyone of us should protest against this regulation with a loud voice.

Censorship of legal activates is a step against our democratic ways and freedom of life.

Got an opinion on Australian Internet Censorship? Place your comments below.

Posted in Blog, Gambling Blog | 2 Comments

Tennis Analysis 2009 – Part 2

tennisHere we have a brief look at the stats for the WTA betting for the year 2009. Sportpunter did very well betting on the women which is shown below with a return of 5.8%. It was higher mid year, but had a small down trend later in the year, which was unfortunate as this was the same time that ATP fell as well. Still, one can’t argue with a 5.8% ROI profit, and hopefully more profits were made betting sets as well.

Analysis shows good profits over all probability ranges, odds and overlays, which is always a great sign. When overlays were above 40%, returns increased to 34% ROI which is quite massive.

It was good to see that nice profits were made betting on the favourites, with odds of less than 1.70. This was particularly good, because in 2008 this failed to eventuate with so many big name players losing.

All the results point to hopefully another good 2010 season.

Sign up here for Sportpunter’s tennis model in 2010

ProbBetween#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.100-$-$--
0.10.200-$-$--
0.20.300-$-$--
0.30.400-$-$--
0.40.5591932.2% $11,137.74 $1,861.75 16.7%
0.50.61646841.5% $27,064.64 -$1,958.75 -7.2%
0.60.71729454.7% $34,986.74 $3,213.40 9.2%
0.70.816311168.1% $43,856.18 $3,248.58 7.4%
0.80.915111878.1% $56,174.85 $4,925.12 8.8%
0.91534381.1% $30,300.05 $502.601.7%
TOTAL76245359.4% $203,520.20 $11,792.71 5.8%
OddsBetween#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
11.419915477.4% $77,872.65 $3,119.27 4.0%
1.41.721414768.7% $54,292.54 $5,753.23 10.6%
1.721316650.4% $24,477.42 -$3.700.0%
22.25863439.5% $16,370.74 -$3,538.70 -21.6%
2.252.5402050.0% $9,424.78 $1,938.46 20.6%
2.53471736.2% $11,343.38 $1,617.50 14.3%
34401332.5% $8,498.58 $1,946.02 22.9%
465240.0% $1,240.11 $960.6377.5%
61000-$-$--
105000-$-$--
TOTAL76245359.4% $203,520.20 $11,792.71 5.8%
OverlayBetween#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.0500-$-$--
0.050.124815964.1% $51,417.67 -$1,751.13 -3.4%
0.10.1516411368.9% $43,882.89 $3,842.21 8.8%
0.150.21077166.4% $34,885.53 $3,530.73 10.1%
0.20.25533056.6% $16,413.36 $1,616.28 9.8%
0.250.3582543.1% $17,733.97 -$1,818.63 -10.3%
0.30.4632438.1% $17,702.70 -$998.16-5.6%
0.40.6421842.9% $12,297.80 $2,021.13 16.4%
0.61251352.0% $8,541.72 $5,994.83 70.2%
15200.0%$644.55-$644.55-100.0%
TOTAL76245359.4% $203,520.20 $11,792.71 5.8%

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Tennis Analysis 2009 – Part 1

tennis2Following the 2009 Tennis season, I’im going to have a look at how we did during the season.

First up is the ATP, which started well, had a terrible mid to late season and then finished with a good couple of weeks at the end.

The breakdown of all the bets that were made are shown below. This shows a couple of interesting things. Profits were not nearly as big as previous years where in 2008 11.2% ROI was made. Higher probabilities didn’t make a profit, however the amount of bets means we can’t read too much into this. What is interesting is that betting at odds of 3.00 or more failed to make a profit. This is shown in the overlays as well, where our big 100% overlays made a loss with only one win from 23 bets. This is normally our bread and butter. This area, 100%+ overlays was really where the model fell down. I will be analysing the data in more detail to determine why this was the case. With so few bets it could well be just a case of random variation, just not in our favour.

ProbBetween#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.100-$-$--
0.10.200-$-$--
0.20.300-$-$--
0.30.41603622.5% $23,783.56 -$812.79-3.4%
0.40.51183933.1% $23,499.31 $81.330.3%
0.50.624110945.2% $38,708.44 $1,651.39 4.3%
0.60.71939750.3% $39,843.12 $1,802.93 4.5%
0.70.81258366.4% $34,859.76 $103.990.3%
0.80.9614268.9% $23,443.95 -$1,477.48 -6.3%
0.91201575.0% $11,696.24 -$316.00-2.7%
TOTAL91842145.9% $195,834.39 $1,033.38 0.5%
OddsBetween#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
11.4765876.3% $28,100.02 $1,499.16 5.3%
1.41.716210564.8% $38,157.77 $165.040.4%
1.721557447.7% $29,553.76 -$2,124.56 -7.2%
22.251316045.8% $23,323.53 -$2,351.40 -10.1%
2.252.5673044.8% $14,866.31 $2,371.88 16.0%
2.53763748.7% $16,998.01 $6,244.11 36.7%
341393625.9% $24,865.40 -$1,152.12 -4.6%
461042120.2% $18,092.43 -$1,952.16 -10.8%
610700.0% $1,590.43 -$1,379.85 -86.8%
1050100.0%$286.72-$286.72-100.0%
TOTAL91842145.9% $195,834.39 $1,033.38 0.5%
OverlayBetween#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.0500-$-$--
0.050.119111962.3% $29,393.27 $744.112.5%
0.10.151478155.1% $29,596.59 -$751.29-2.5%
0.150.2885259.1% $23,948.53 $1,634.18 6.8%
0.20.25542648.1% $14,394.36 -$800.55-5.6%
0.250.3903842.2% $17,413.68 $1,352.18 7.8%
0.30.41394633.1% $29,823.96 -$1,146.67 -3.8%
0.40.61264233.3% $28,892.49 $4,651.68 16.1%
0.61601626.7% $15,256.10 $707.124.6%
152314.3% $7,115.39 -$5,357.37 -75.3%
TOTAL91842145.9% $195,834.39 $1,033.38 0.5%

We will have the WTA analysis in the next post, which is a lot more encouraging. Full results to come.

Sign up here for Sportpunter’s tennis model in 2010

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Soccer world cup draw: who has the hardest group

worldcupEveryone has been talking about the new draw that has been released for the soccer world cup and who has the hardest group. Like every year, the Australians are complaining that we have the toughest group. Even the FIFA world cup website suggests that Germany and Brazil are in arguably the toughest two groups. Perhaps the other teams in those groups don’t have it tough for some reason.

But who has the toughest group? And who has the easiest run? Well we can roughly work that out once and for all. Using the World Football Elo Ratings, we can add up all the rankings for all the teams and determine which group will be the hardest.

Results are shown below:

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup D
South Africa1508Argentina1876England1957Germany1933
Mexico1875Nigeria1741United States1784Australia1773
Uruguay1793South Korea1733Algeria1580Serbia1805
France1863Greece1757Slovenia1641Ghana1683
7039710769627194
Group EGroup FGroup GGroup H
Netherlands2002Italy1928Brazil2081Spain2067
Denmark1774Paraguay1739North Korea1510Switzerland1764
Japan1774New Zealand1538Cote d’Ivoire1763Honduras1729
Cameroon1771Slovakia1636Portugal1843Chile1858
7321684171977418

Group H

7418

Group E

7321

Group G

7197

Group D

7194

Group B

7107

Group A

7039

Group C

6962

Group F

6841

So there we have it, according to the Elo ratings, Group H which consists of Spain, Switzerland, Honduras and Chile have the toughest group, whilst group F which consists of Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand and Slovakia have the easiest draw.

And Australia? Germany and Brazil? Group D and G are listed as third and fourth. A little tough, but nothing to write home about.

Check out all the free sportpunter soccer predictions here.

Posted in Blog, Gambling Blog | 4 Comments

Top 10 sportspeople of the 2000s: 1. Roger Federer

rogerfedererThe number one sportsperson of the last ten years is none other than Swiss champion Roger Federer. It’s taken a lot of research and heated discussion amongst friends, but sportpunter believes that the Fed is well deserved of the number one position. Let me tell you why.

Roger Federer has won a record 15 Grand Slams, breaking the record of 14 held by Pete Sampras at Wimbledon in 2009. He is only one of six tennis players to achieve a career grand slam which is winning at least one of every major tennis tournament. He achieved this after winning the French Open this year. Federer and Agassi are the only two players to achieve this feat in the open era.

Since 2003 Federer has won at least one grand slam in every single year. He has reached the grand slam final 21 times, more than any other player, and is currently on a roll of reaching the semi-finals or better in his last 22 grand slams. That roll goes back to the Wimbledon in 2004. He has reached the final in 17 of the last 18 grand slams.

Federer is currently ranked number one in the world, and held that status for an all time record of 237 weeks from February 2004 to August 2008. Steffi Graf has the next longest streak with 186 consecutive weeks.

His record on the green top is spectacular. He equalled Bjorn Borg’s record of winning the most consecutive Wimbledon’s in the open era from 2003 to 2007. From 2002 to 2008 Federer did not lose a game in grass. Sixty-five matches in a row.

Along with the success comes the money and awards. He has made the most prize money than any other tennis player, and has been awarded the Laurens Sportsman of the year four times since the year 2000 (other winners were Tiger Woods and Michael Schumacher twice, Lance Armstrong and Usain Bolt once).

Every one of his grand slam victories were in the last decade. Federer is, in sportpunter’s opinion, the best sportsperson in the last ten years. Who do you think was the best sportsperson this decade? Make your comments below.

The next article will be the people who missed out on the top then and why.

Check out Sportpunter’s tennis betting model and record here.

Previous Top 10 Sportspeople

2. Tiger Woods

3. Michael Phelps

4. Lance Armstrong

5. Valentino Rossi

6. Michael Schumacher

7. Zinedine Zidane

8. Serena Williams

9. Kenenisa Bekele

10. Shaquille O’Neal

Posted in Blog, Gambling Blog | 2 Comments

Top 10 sportspeople of the 2000s: 2. Tiger Woods

tigerwoodsComing in at number two in sportpunter’s Top 10 sportspeople of the last decade is American golfer Tiger Woods.

Eldrick “Tiger” Woods has won in total 71 PGA Tour events, the third highest of all time, and 14 major golf tournaments, four behind legend Jack Nicklaus. Since 1986, when gold rankings appeared, he has accumulated the most number of weeks at number 1 position, a total of 576 weeks. He currently is ranked number 1 in the world and has held that position since June 12 2005.

Awards for his success seems to follow. He has been awarded PGA player of the year for a record ten times, The Bryon Nelson award (lowest average score) a record eight times and has led the money earning list in the golf calendar year for a record nine seasons.

Along with all this success comes a fairly hefty pay check. In the year 2008 he was the worlds highest earning athlete, earning approximately $110 Million from winnings and endorsements.

Whilst Woods announced himself on the playing field in 1999/2000, winning five tournaments in a row, it was his sixth victory in a row at the Pebble Beach that was to be mostly remembered. Woods was behind by seven shots with only seven holes to play. He achieved four under par for the last four holes to record a massive come from behind two stroke victory.

In the same year at the 2000 US Open, Woods led by ten shots coming into the final round. Even the Open Championship of the same year, Woods won by eight shots. He continued to win the 2000 PGA Championship after coming from behind again, making seven under par from his last 12 holes. He joined Ben Hogan as being the only player in golf history to win three major tournaments in any calendar year.

Woods hadn’t just announced his appearance, he told everybody else they had better catch up to his standards. Never before had odds for a player to win a golf tournament been so low. Woods dramatically popularised the sport, and being one of the only black people to grace the courses, opened up a completely new demographic into watching and playing.

It didn’t stop there. 2001 saw him win the Masters, which meant he was the only person of all time that had held all four major golf championships at the one time. 2002 saw Woods defend his Masters title, but the following couple of years Woods took a little slump.

In changing some small adjustments to his swing to reduce stress on one of his knees, he fell behind Vijay Singh who overtook Woods on the money list and Golf Rankings.

He bounced back in 2005, but in 2006 his father and long term mentor died. Woods took some time off and then came back and failed to make the cut at the US Open. This being the first time in his career and broke the record of 39 consecutive cuts made at major championships.

However he came back again to win the PGA Championship and Open Championship that same year.

Of course sometimes greats can slip up. On November 27, 2009, Woods was taken to hospital after an early morning car accident near his home. His car ran into a fire hydrant and tree at a speed less than 33mph. Woods retired from his own charity golf tournament and any other tournament for the rest of the year. After the press has got a hold of certain “family” matters, Woods apologist to the public and his wife for certain “transgressions.”

Shortly we will be making a list of the top 10 sports scandals of the last decade. Perhaps this one will make it?

Either way, Woods has dominated the sport, changed the way the game is played and that tells me that he is a worthy pick for the top 10 sportspeople of the last decade. So who will be number one? Tomorrow we shall see.

Previous Top 10 Sportspeople

3. Michael Phelps

4. Lance Armstrong

5. Valentino Rossi

6. Michael Schumacher

7. Zinedine Zidane

8. Serena Williams

9. Kenenisa Bekele

10. Shaquille O’Neal

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Posted in Blog, Gambling Blog | 2 Comments