Triple J hottest 100 2009 predictions

It’s coming around to Autriplejhottest100stralia Day once again which is one of my favourite days of the year! Why? Not because I love all things Australian – which I almost do – but because I especially love alternative music.

Now I know that this is a gambling website, and I do intend on having some gambling tips in this article, but what I am really talking about is the Triple J Hottest 100.

For those who don’t live on this sunbaked island, Triple J is an alternative youth based radio station that holds the most famous countdown of the best songs of the year. You can read all about the hottest 100 here: http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/hottest100/09/ and you can even get a vote in (which helps when you are betting on the best song as well!)

In the past, I’ve done pretty good out of the hottest 100. Last year I bet strongly on Kings of Leon’s Sex on Fire which started around odds of 1.75 only to drift to 2.00. In 2007 Muse’s Knights of Cydonia only defeated favourite Silverchair’s Sraight Lines by 8 votes, and I lost a small amount on that bet.

But its been good for me in the past. In 2006, I hit on the “all others” option, believing that it was crazy the Augie March’s One Crowded Hour wasn’t listed and picked up odds of 17 to 1.

Previous years to this showed that in order to make it to the number one position, it is all about timing and commercial radio play. In 1998 when the Offspring released Pretty Fly for a White Guy (ahh-haa, ahh-haa), the song got more than twice the amount of votes as the song in second position. The song was released on November 9th, only a month before the Hottest 100 voting began and was an instant success.

Some things die hard though, and about another month later and it was the most hated song on the radio.

Timing is everything.

Which brings me to this years list. If the voting had started and finished at the start of the year, then Lilly Allen’s Not Fair (17.00) would have easily won. Such classic lyrics and catchy tune would have won the hottest 100 by a country mile. But Allen is old hat now, and several other tunes are fresher on people’s minds. You can get 41.00 on the Gossips Heavy Cross, which would have also won had the vote been mid year. Every channel was playing this song non stop. At least 10 remixes from DJ’s wanting to jump on the wagon helped them gain more and more radio airplay. So overplayed they were that the song is virtually not played on radio today.

Similarly, everyone has forgotten that Eskimo Joe’s song Foreign land is actually votable. It was released in April and since then has long been forgotten. Sportingbet haven’t even priced them up, but the song would have been top 5 if the vote count was mid year.

Phoenix was voted by Triple J voters as the best album of the year, and despite having a few big hits from the album, all sound quite similar and don’t exactly stand out. They could well get three top 20 listings, but it is hard to see them get the number 1 spot.

Muse is second favourite (4.00) with their song Uprising. It’s their best song off the album and has had significant airplay. Muse, my favourite band of all time, released this song in early September. But interestingly, in 2007, they hit the number 1 position in the hottest 100 with Knights of Cydonia that was released at prime time – mid/late November. Arguably, Knights of Cydonia is a better song than Uprising (although not as commercially played), so Muse is not a bet for me.

Favourite to hit the number one spot is Mumford & Suns Little Lion Man which has come in massively from odds of 2.80 to 1.50. I wouldn’t have listed this song in my top 3, so a bet on them is in my opinion of little value.

So who has released their song late, that is catchy and that everybody loves? Probably the song Home by Edward Sharpe and the Magnetic Zero’s. Although the album with the song was released mid year, Home has only been played in the last few weeks. So much has this caught bookies by surprise in that bookmakers failed to price up the song, which meant that odds of 126.00 would have been available. Since then it is available at odds of 17.00 or even as short as third place favourite 6.50 at spotingbet. That is some odds movement!

I’m not sure how much commercial airplay it has received, but for me, in a no real standout Hottest 100 list, it provides the best value.

Go for The Gossip as an outsider at 41.00 and hit on Home. Two big outsiders. Don’t forget the prawns on the barbie (or my Australian speciality – Dim-sims cut in half), and don’t go easy on the beverages.

As for my top 10 songs of the year 2009? Here they are:

  1. Röyksopp – The Girl and the Robot
  2. Karnivool – Set Fire to the Hive
  3. Silversun Pickups – Panic Switch
  4. Manchester Orchestra – I’ve Got Friends
  5. Doves – Kingdom of Rust
  6. Muse – Uprising
  7. Lilly Allen – Not Fair
  8. Eskimo Joe – Foreign Land
  9. La Roux – Tigerlily
  10. Edward Sharpe & Magnetic Zeros – Home

Apologies to Sarah Blasko’s All I want, Dead Letter Circus’s Space on the Wall,  every song by Karnivool and Röyksopp and how Phoenix didn’t get on the list I’ve no idea.

Odds are available at Sportingbet, Centrebet and Betchoice.

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6 Responses to Triple J hottest 100 2009 predictions

  1. flosso says:

    Great analysis Jonno, and also very entertaining to see a non-sports article pop up here – if you’ve heard of Nate Silver he is a baseball predictions genius, and then turned his hand to the 2008 US elections, picking the winner of 49 of the 50 states and become an overnight celebrity in the process.

    Anyway back to the hottest 100 – I notice that Betfair now have a market on this (albeit suspended ATM), so the possibility exists to lay some of the songs you consider not value.

    I fully agree with you on the notion that the more recent songs get more votes – you see in every radio counter, especially “the best song of all time” type ones that the more recent songs are weighted towards to the top of the list.

    Although perhaps an exception to the rule was the 2007 Hottest 100 when Straight Lines by Silverchair finished 2nd to Muse (also my favourite band though I digress that United States of Eurasia is my fav off the new album) by only 13 votes – with a song that was released the March of the previous year.

    I couldn’t believe the Offspring won in 1998 with a song that I still rank as one of the most annoying of all time, but then I think the average Hottest 100 voter is not exactly the average JJJ listener – evidenced by the fact Alanis Morrisette once got 3 songs in the countdown one year, without any of her songs ever being played on JJJ.

  2. sportpunter says:

    yeah I think we are seeing a trend towards indpendant and alternative music of late being up the top. This could be because of the Invluence of radio station Nova, which plays some independant music and is almost a half way station between JJJ and Fox.

  3. sportpunter says:

    yes and Betfairs market is still suspended for some unknown reason:

    http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=100141414&ex=2&origin=MRL

  4. Steve says:

    Apparently the winner has been revealed early
    http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/01/22/oz-day-spoiler-abc-leaks-hottest-100-victor/

    Only follow the link if you want to know which song has won.

  5. sportpunter says:

    interestingly, all the books have taken the odds off the market. This is interesting as normally this never occurs and you get more head to head markets. Sounds like the leak is legit or at least, the bookies think it is

  6. % says:

    website book marked along with became aware of, We’ll article some sort of opinions with my own site shortly

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