AFL Grand Final

What a ripper gransaintsvgeelongd final it will be. That is, apart from the thunderstorms and possible hail that is meant to disrupt it.

I posted previously how, given this case, the unders might be the better bet, and indeed centrebet’s line has decreased from 170.5 down to 165.5. Maybe some of you took the advice and plundered on. However in a low scoring windy wet game there might be another market that one could use. In a wet and windy day, more behinds are usually kicked than goals, but it seems that the bookies prices for these have not yet been adjusted.

You can get odds of 3.80 for Geelong to first kick a behind and 3.90 for the saints to first kick a behind at Bet Choice and Sportsbet Oz respectively. This equates to a 51.9% chance of the first score being a behind. Whilst the saints have been pretty accurate in front of goal of late, everyone remembers the yips that have plagued Geelong of late.

Last years grand final for one, where they kicked 11 goals 23 points. But the reason why there might be an overlay here is not because of the accuracy of the players, but the likelihood that players might take a while to account for the wind, the greater chance that players will go for goal from 50 meters out only to see the wet ball drop short, and the probability that there will be several “rushed” behinds if the rain starts to pour.

It wouldn’t be much of an advantage I would think, perhaps a 55% chance of the first score behind a behind. But even with a 55% chance of a behind up front, that’s still a 5.9% overlay, and perhaps worth taking up.

The first shot on goal is always exciting anyway.

And the actual match? Well this has last year all over it, just with the teams in reverse. Last year Hawthorn finished second on the ladder, but come finals time got all their players back and thrashed the opposition in the finals matches. Sound like Geelong this year? Well last year Geelong only lost one game for the year and were the dominant team, but were a little shaky in the lead up games to the finals and even only narrowly defeated western bulldogs in the prelim. Sound like the saints this year?

You bet. The team going into this game with the most confidence would no doubt be Geelong, despite the saints being the premier side throughout the year. Either way it should be a cracker. I’m just hoping for a low scoring point kicking game. Oh, and a close one for interests sake.

Sportputer’s AFL betting history is shown here

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Tennis Players using twitter

twittertennisMany of us would love to know how the players we are betting on are feeling on a daily basis. To get this sort of information we would need to search for news stories of injuries that were usually at best a few days old.

With the advent of social media sites such as Myspace, Facebook, and now Twitter, we no longer need to rely on these other sources of information. Why bother getting injury news from someone else when you can get it from the players themselves the moment it happens? By following these players on Twitter you can learn quite alot about their current fitness level, how they are feeling about upcoming matches and their daily life.

Below is every ATP and WTA player I could find that currently has a twitter account.

Remember to add the Sportpunter twitter page as well to get news of new posts,upcoming contests and results on a daily basis.

ATP Players

WTA Players

Retired Players

Events

If we have missed anyone you know about, Please add them to the comments section as we will be updating this list on a monthly basis.

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AFL Grand Final Unders

aflpremiershipcup

Centrebet are the first to give out over/under odds and I like the look of the unders here. 1.90 available for under 170.5 points. Now that might sound like a small total, but both clubs have by far the best two defences in the competition. When they played in round 14, only 176 points were scored, and yet that was played in the nice indoor conditions of the docklands.

But this is outdoor, and the forecast for Saturday isn’t looking that great. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne will have this Saturday experience: “Scattered showers and the chance of thunderstorms with hail. Winds west to northwesterly averaging up to 40 km/h”

So a windy, possibly wet day, which all goes for a low scoring contest. Not only that, but Geelongs last three matches against Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and Fremantle ranked in total scores of 167, 178 and 148. Average 164. Whilst St. Kilda’s last four matches against Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Melbourne and North Melbourne scored in total 113, 132, 181 and 123 points respectively. Average 137

Looks to me to be value. Expect the odds to come in if the weather predictions become more likely to be true.

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Brownlow Medal 2009

Whilst sportpunter garyabletthave not come up with any specific predictions for the Brownlow medal, one of our regular clients, Flosso has come up with his predictions which you can download in the forum. He’s done pretty good in past years, and this year he reckons Ablett will take out the crown.

Not a very adventurous prediction, but the probability that he suggests means a significant overlay. I managed to get on with odds of $3.10 at betfair, and the odds have come in a bit since.

Check out flosso’s predictions here:

http://www.sportpunter.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5196

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Australian basketball set to start

Australian basketball is back. And it will be extremely interesting how the season unfolds considering all the post season drama. No Sydney team, and the length of quarters reduced from 12 minutes to 10. This should have an interesting effect on totals betting. Logic tells you that the total scores of teams should reduce by 16.6%, however the pre season tournament showed that this is not the case for a number of different reasons.

Last year the average score per game was 193.9 points. Pre season the average score was 172. IF we are to reduce the average 193.9 by 40/48 then we get 161.6 which is less than the 172.

Sportpunter NBL Season with predictions

Sportpunter NBL Season with predictions

The reason could be because the better players will get more percentage game time on the court. Also, players might be more prone to create fouls which stop the clock.

For my predictions, I’m going to use this 172 as a constant average to start off with, which means a reduction in points by 11.3%. Also of course I will take careful note on the what odds, if at all, the bookmakers price the totals up.

Still the free NBL predictions are available here, and the season starts Thursday!

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Massive Soccer Wins

Sportpunter’s soccer models have had a facelift and what great results we have seen. The betting histories for the soccer model is shown here and results are staggering. This year alone we’ve made nearly 5% ROI on over 6600 bets, betting head to heads. Similarly with totals betting  8% ROI has been made with nearly 5000 bets.soccerball

Last weekend alone was amazing for punters who followed the model. 180 bets were made on head to head betting, for a return of 18% ROI. Wins included

Burnley d. Sutherland (EPL) @ 2.99 (45.4% chance)

Morecambe d. Notts County (eng leadue 2) @ 4.20 (36.6% chance)
Asteras Tripolis d. Panionios (Greek Premier) @ 5.48 (27.7% chance)
Queens d. Dundee (Scottish 1st div) @ 3.57 (42.5% chance)

Totals also performed fantastically as well with over 150 bets and profits of about 6% ROI.

All the bets with 67 leagues world wide are updated every day and are completely free. Go here for all the latest information: http://www.sportpunter.com/soccer/

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New Sportpunter Website

Welcome to thnewsportpunterwebsitee new sportpunter website. For those who have been around, you will know that Sportpunter has been operating online since 2002. That’s a long time, but the website was getting a little old and has now been designed to enable some good changes that we plan on undertaking.

For example, the front page will from now on be more of a blog, with articles about our models, gambling in general and sports betting news. Clients are also welcome to post articles should they wish and everyone is welcome to post comments.

We will also have short updates on twitter when new articles are written as well as giving out information about when sports are updated.

We plan on making sportpunter the best sports gambling website in Australia and possibly the world. It will be stacking with sports betting information, which, along with my own personal Sports gambling models will make it the one stop place to gain all sorts of information about gambling from.

There’s bound to be a few teething problems on the new site, but we will get there. Let us know what you think and if you have any suggestions.

Already I know of some sportpunter clients who have given up their day job to become professional gamblers, and I hope you can join me on the sportpunter ride.

Jump on board!

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