AFL Grand Final

What a ripper gransaintsvgeelongd final it will be. That is, apart from the thunderstorms and possible hail that is meant to disrupt it.

I posted previously how, given this case, the unders might be the better bet, and indeed centrebet’s line has decreased from 170.5 down to 165.5. Maybe some of you took the advice and plundered on. However in a low scoring windy wet game there might be another market that one could use. In a wet and windy day, more behinds are usually kicked than goals, but it seems that the bookies prices for these have not yet been adjusted.

You can get odds of 3.80 for Geelong to first kick a behind and 3.90 for the saints to first kick a behind at Bet Choice and Sportsbet Oz respectively. This equates to a 51.9% chance of the first score being a behind. Whilst the saints have been pretty accurate in front of goal of late, everyone remembers the yips that have plagued Geelong of late.

Last years grand final for one, where they kicked 11 goals 23 points. But the reason why there might be an overlay here is not because of the accuracy of the players, but the likelihood that players might take a while to account for the wind, the greater chance that players will go for goal from 50 meters out only to see the wet ball drop short, and the probability that there will be several “rushed” behinds if the rain starts to pour.

It wouldn’t be much of an advantage I would think, perhaps a 55% chance of the first score behind a behind. But even with a 55% chance of a behind up front, that’s still a 5.9% overlay, and perhaps worth taking up.

The first shot on goal is always exciting anyway.

And the actual match? Well this has last year all over it, just with the teams in reverse. Last year Hawthorn finished second on the ladder, but come finals time got all their players back and thrashed the opposition in the finals matches. Sound like Geelong this year? Well last year Geelong only lost one game for the year and were the dominant team, but were a little shaky in the lead up games to the finals and even only narrowly defeated western bulldogs in the prelim. Sound like the saints this year?

You bet. The team going into this game with the most confidence would no doubt be Geelong, despite the saints being the premier side throughout the year. Either way it should be a cracker. I’m just hoping for a low scoring point kicking game. Oh, and a close one for interests sake.

Sportputer’s AFL betting history is shown here

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9 Responses to AFL Grand Final

  1. Hareeba says:

    Those same odds for first score are available for each quarter, so you can play it four times 🙂

  2. sportpunter says:

    yeah I’m a bit hesitant after quarter time. I dunno. I feel later the teams will understand how the wind and rain works and will not try to bomb it from 50 out. I dont have any stats, but I reckon a lot of the time in grand finals, players are on edge and try stupid things early in the game….maybe I’m wrong, not sure.

  3. efcbomber says:

    Nice write-up 🙂

    Got on the under early and like the idea of a behind 1st. Would love to see Cam Mooney 20m out right in front. He’s bound to miss 🙂

    Also agree about it not being so good for the other quarters. Nerves will be there at 0-all. Game could be over as a contest in the latter quarters and less nerves about.

  4. sportpunter says:

    yeah check out the stats as shown here in the last writeup about the quarter by quarter analysis:

    Shows that it is more likely for behinds earlier on, especially in finals and maybe even moreso in grandfinals.

  5. sportpunter says:

    so in the end I was a bit nervous with a high scoring first half, but the line bet won easily in the end. Close games in the wet are always going to be low scoring

  6. Lee Pyotr says:

    Hey I just wanted to let you know, I actually like the writing on your website. But I am employing Firefox on a machine running version 8.x of Ubuntu and the design aren’t quite satisfactory. Not a important deal, I can still essentially read the articles and look for for info, but just wanted to inform you about that. The navigation bar is kind of tough to apply with the config I’m running. Keep up the superb work!

  7. sportpunter says:

    thanks for the heads up Lee, I’ll get my tech guru onto it

  8. John Mullins says:

    Hi, with the AFL betting history tables, which odds are displayed (ie. are they all from the same betting agency? – and at what time period before the match?)



  9. sportpunter says:

    the are odds from PinnacleSports, done on Thursday midday

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