I hate to bang on about this in the third post, but its worth mentioning I believe. Previously I posted how I believe the grand final could well be a low scoring match as well as commenting about how there might be some value in first score being a behind so maybe I’ll back that last comment with a bit more information.
Since 2003 more goals have been kicked than behinds. In fact on average a team kicks 14.2 goals and 12.5 behinds. The quarter by quarter averages do not show up a pattern against this. The first quarter averages 3.3 goals, 2.9 behinds. The second quarter also 3.3 goals, 2.9 behind. The third quarter 3.5 goals 2.9 behinds and the last quarter is usually the highest scoring with on average 4.0 goals and 3.7 behinds.
So it makes sense that a bookie will price up the first scoring shot of a behind as less likely than a goal. But what about finals? In finals the game might well be more competitive. And whilst I haven’t done any analysis of goal and point scoring in closely rated teams, finals might well show a different pattern.
Indeed it does. In the 73 finals since 2003, the average team has scored in the first quarter 3.0 goals and 3.0 behinds. The second quarter has resulted in 2.9 goals and 2.8 behinds. The third quarter 3.4 goals 2.8 behind and the last “blow-out” quarter 4.8 goals and 2.8 behinds.
Interestingly enough, for the first quarter and almost the first half in finals, the number of behinds scored is equivalent to the number of goals. In the 2009 finals, the first quarter has resulted in on average 2.8 goals 3.5 behinds.
And with windy wet weather again being predicted, the chances of a first up behind are increased (eg. The windy game between Western Bulldogs and Brisbane resulted in 4 goals 8 kicked in the first quarter). Or even better, the wet grand final of Collingwood vs Brisbane of which one goal 8 was kicked in the first quarter.
Grand finals alone have higher scoring behinds in the first quarter than finals or any other match. Of the 7 grand finals since 2002, the average first quarter score per team is 2.9 goals, 3.3 behinds.
So there is value in the first quarter first scoring shot behind. Seems like in this instance, finals and grand finals, are a slightly different kettle of fish.