Analysis of 2011/2012 NBA Season model

Model, Sport Models | | July 13, 2012 at 1:16 pm

With the 2011/12 NBA season now complete and Miami Heat getting up to win, it’s probably time that we check out the Sportpunter NBA model and see how we went in this cut short season.

Results are good for the 2011/12 season, which backed up the record of the season prior. Line betting saw 522 bets made for a very healthy 4.8% return on investment. This is up from the borderline 0.7% ROI made the year before. A total of 1143 bets now have been made for 3.6% ROI as shown here.

Totals betting had 511 bets with a nice 2.5% ROI profit. Lower than the previous years of 5.4% ROI, but still good. Over 1000 bets in total at 4.7% ROI over two seasons is very pleasing indeed.

Head to head betting had some technical problems with odds not being readily available all the time. Hence only 165 bets were recorded at 2.4% ROI, but still in the 2 years we have had 621 bets at 3.4% ROI.

Either way, all h2h, totals and lines have made profit in each category and in each year, which is very pleasing indeed.

We should previously, that the model does especially good earlier in the season, and with this season starting late, it was hard to say how we would have gone. However results show that stopping betting after week 9 for h2h, week 7 for line betting and week 14 for totals provided the most profit. Quitting looking at the model at these times would have provided 26% ROI betting h2h, 22% ROI betting on the line and 5.4% ROI (with more bets) betting the totals.

Of course it is easy to say in hindsight when to stop betting the models predictions, but what is clear is that the advantage for the model is early on in the season.

Shown below is a short analysis of the 2011/12 season for NBA for totals betting. I shall summarise them here.

Firstly it looks as though the whole season went well, expect for the months of May and June. It seems like the model might not perform that well during the playoffs. There were lots of over bets during this time, and just like Ice Hockey and other American sports, it appears that lower scores could well appear during the playoffs (hence why more overs bets).

Interestingly overs lost 1% ROI overall, whilst unders betting made a staggering 15.9% ROI from 124 bets. As previously noted, we suggested a minimum 17.5% overlay betting the totals, and the same trend occurred again in 2011/12. Had we just bet totals at 17.5% overlay or greater, then we would have made 254 bets for a very handy 5.8% ROI. Not bad at all. If you had of averaged $1,000 a bet, then you would have profited over $14,000 for the year.

If you had stayed away from the playoffs as we previously suggested, then the profits would have been bigger. You would have made 226 bets for a very handy 7.3% ROI. Very nice. An average $1,000 bet would have netter you a season profit of $16,500. And that’s only totals betting.

So signs are good, and the model has performed well, and also has been consistent year to year in the two years operating. Hopefully this trend will continue.

Month#Bets$Bet$Profit%ROI
1234$10,302.49$867.758.40%
1113$29,511.80-$305.48-1.00%
2107$20,711.93$1,403.626.80%
3117$22,006.74$1,271.525.80%
491$17,203.32$494.212.90%
546$10,522.26-$923.45-8.80%
64$535.18-$49.27-9.20%
TOTAL512$110,793.72$2,758.902.50%
OverMonth#Bets$Bet$Profit%ROI
1228$9,136.67$263.882.90%
184$23,577.48-$2,413.28-10.20%
282$16,508.31$1,654.7410.00%
378$14,119.09$287.822.00%
466$13,662.32$388.762.80%
545$10,440.43-$1,003.64-9.60%
64$535.18-$49.27-9.20%
TOTAL387$87,979.48-$870.99-1.00%
UnderMonth#Bets$Bet$Profit%ROI
126$1,165.82$603.8651.80%
129$5,934.32$2,107.8035.50%
225$4,203.62-$251.12-6.00%
338$7,887.65$983.7012.50%
425$3,541.00$105.453.00%
51$81.83$80.1998.00%
60$-$--
TOTAL124$22,814.24$3,629.8815.90%
Overlay#Bets$Bet$Profit%ROI
0.050.07560$4,151.17-$497.65-12.00%
0.0750.161$5,597.41$463.648.30%
0.10.12550$5,998.20-$802.46-13.40%
0.1250.1555$8,177.85-$687.51-8.40%
0.150.17530$5,236.26-$500.49-9.60%
0.1750.234$6,697.64$2,091.3731.20%
0.20.2560$14,435.58$2,414.6416.70%
0.250.354$16,061.31$3,560.2822.20%
0.30.471$26,330.31-$805.74-3.10%
0.4235$18,053.92-$2,527.46-14.00%
Overlay >=17.5Month#Bets$Bet$Profit%ROI
1223$9,047.91$1,115.8612.30%
167$23,926.90-$752.90-3.10%
250$13,825.39$1,165.588.40%
346$14,451.80$3,780.3926.20%
440$11,823.82$51.780.40%
528$8,502.94-$627.62-7.40%
60$-$--
TOTAL254$81,578.76$4,733.095.80%

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