When betting the AFL before the seasons starts, I like to make a few fun plays at the top 8 market. Not too much, but just enough for interests sake and to make some money. I don’t really like tying up my money for most of the year, so I only bet smaller amounts compared to my weekly head to head betting, but it seems like my bets are going quite well.
Most notably the carlton bet to miss the top8. It’s bizarre to think after round 3 they were premiership favourites. But here are the bets that I made, either backed or laid to make the top 8 before the season started. These are based on the probabilities of the Sportpunter AFL Model:
Team Bet/Lay Odds Units Bet/Lay Risk
Carlton Lay 1.31 35 10.85
Adelaide Bet 1.81 7.6 7.6
Brisbane Bet 7.6 2.4 2.4
North Melb Bet 2.3 6.7 6.7
Port Adelaide Bet 8.6 2.6 2.6
Richmond Bet 3.2 7.5 7.5
St. Kilda Bet 1.82 2.1 2.1
Essendon Lay 2.18 2.8 3.304
Fremantle Lay 1.9 7.7 6.93
Geelong Lay 1.27 4.5 1.215
Melbourne Lay 4.8 5.2 19.76
West Coast lay 1.44 3.1 1.364
72.323
Now considering that the odds have changed, we can now back or lay the other side to lock in a guaranteed profit (or loss) for each outcome. Should I attempt to do this now, this is what I would be looking at.
Team Bet/Lay Odds Available Units Bet/Lay ProfitInTop8 ProfitMissTop8
Carlton Bet 4.6 10.0 25.0 25.0
Adelaide Lay 1.04 13.2 5.6 5.6
Brisbane Lay 12.5 1.5 -0.9 -0.9
North Melb Lay 3 5.1 -1.6 -1.6
Port Adelaide Lay 50 0.4 -2.2 -2.2
Richmond Lay 2.4 10.0 2.5 2.5
St. Kilda Lay 2.7 1.4 -0.7 -0.7
Essendon Bet 1.1 5.5 -2.7 -2.7
Fremantle Bet 5 2.9 4.8 4.8
Geelong Bet 1.6 3.6 0.9 0.9
Melbourne Bet 200 0.1 5.1 5.1
West Coast Bet 1.04 4.3 -1.2 -1.2
34.7 34.7
So not bad. I risked 72.3 units before the season start and could now lock in a profit of 34.7 units or a percentage return of investment of 48%. Nice!
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