AFL futures betting: Top 8 Finals

News, Sport News | | July 2, 2012 at 3:12 pm

When betting the AFL before the seasons starts, I like to make a few fun plays at the top 8 market. Not too much, but just enough for interests sake and to make some money. I don’t really like tying up my money for most of the year, so I only bet smaller amounts compared to my weekly head to head betting, but it seems like my bets are going quite well.

Most notably the carlton bet to miss the top8. It’s bizarre to think after round 3 they were premiership favourites. But here are the bets that I made, either backed or laid to make the top 8 before the season started. These are based on the probabilities of the Sportpunter AFL Model:

TeamBet/LayOddsUnits Bet/LayRisk
CarltonLay1.313510.85
AdelaideBet1.817.67.6
BrisbaneBet7.62.42.4
North MelbBet2.36.76.7
Port AdelaideBet8.62.62.6
RichmondBet3.27.57.5
St. KildaBet1.822.12.1
EssendonLay2.182.83.304
FremantleLay1.97.76.93
GeelongLay1.274.51.215
MelbourneLay4.85.219.76
West Coastlay1.443.11.364
72.323

Now considering that the odds have changed, we can now back or lay the other side to lock in a guaranteed profit (or loss) for each outcome. Should I attempt to do this now, this is what I would be looking at.

TeamBet/LayOdds AvailableUnits Bet/LayProfitInTop8ProfitMissTop8
CarltonBet4.610.025.025.0
AdelaideLay1.0413.25.65.6
BrisbaneLay12.51.5-0.9-0.9
North MelbLay35.1-1.6-1.6
Port AdelaideLay500.4-2.2-2.2
RichmondLay2.410.02.52.5
St. KildaLay2.71.4-0.7-0.7
EssendonBet1.15.5-2.7-2.7
FremantleBet52.94.84.8
GeelongBet1.63.60.90.9
MelbourneBet2000.15.15.1
West CoastBet1.044.3-1.2-1.2
34.734.7

So not bad. I risked 72.3 units before the season start and could now lock in a profit of 34.7 units or a percentage return of investment of 48%. Nice!

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