NBA Sports Betting Model

Model, Sport Models | | October 26, 2010 at 1:24 pm

Sportpunter are about to release predictions for NBA with a brand new sports model.

NBA is one of the most bet sports in the world and with many games being played every day, the possibility of high turnover is great. Bookies will generally offer lines of 1.95 and better and liquidity isn’t regularly a major problem.

We have analysed the last 4 years of data using hold out samples of every year, and the following are the results. Keep in mind that this is the very early stages of the model. There are still plenty of other variables that we will be adding to it over the course of the season, but I’ve decided to release the predictions now as the season starts tonight (26/10/10).

And so now onto the analysis:

Line Betting

Overlay #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.075 463 218 47.1% $    30,579.81 -$      2,670.33 -8.7%
0.075 0.1 411 196 47.7% $    37,544.81 -$      2,397.97 -6.4%
0.1 0.125 415 204 49.2% $    49,046.83 -$      1,630.20 -3.3%
0.125 0.15 363 173 47.7% $    52,293.83 -$      3,440.39 -6.6%
0.15 0.175 324 142 43.8% $    55,308.76 -$      7,361.34 -13.3%
0.175 0.2 271 151 55.7% $    53,334.85 $      4,682.80 8.8%
0.2 0.25 482 245 50.8% $  113,096.65 -$            41.62 0.0%
0.25 0.3 325 164 50.5% $    93,989.38 -$         952.13 -1.0%
0.3 0.4 333 169 50.8% $  120,960.89 -$      1,976.26 -1.6%
0.4 1 215 113 52.6% $  107,136.50 $      2,569.09 2.4%
3602 1775 49.3% $  713,292.32 -$   13,218.34 -1.9%

So not that great results. However with a minimum 17.5% overlay a 0.9% ROI was made. But still a small profit.

Shown below is match number for line betting:

Match# #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 10 723 687 95.0% $     16,417.84 -$   1,118.60 -6.8%
10 20 479 254 53.0% $   101,078.79 $    2,644.10 2.6%
20 30 453 256 56.5% $     91,347.35 $    5,119.21 5.6%
30 40 436 214 49.1% $     82,024.54 -$   2,254.54 -2.7%
40 50 400 203 50.8% $     70,212.27 -$   2,386.61 -3.4%
50 60 411 219 53.3% $     71,438.12 -$       850.71 -1.2%
60 70 428 197 46.0% $     73,903.51 -$   7,315.95 -9.9%
70 80 436 238 54.6% $     69,936.70 -$   1,993.13 -2.8%
80 90 448 236 52.7% $     89,485.02 $    1,148.05 1.3%
90 5000 340 223 65.6% $     47,448.16 -$   6,210.17 -13.1%
4554 2727 59.9% $   713,292.32 -$ 13,218.34 -1.9%

So early matches is does well, whilst struggling from match 30 (of each team) and onwards. Using a 17.5% ROI min. overlay this is shown below

Match#, Overlay>=0.175 #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 10 35 17 48.6% $     11,991.91 -$       802.19 -6.7%
10 20 236 128 54.2% $     75,562.74 $    4,164.97 5.5%
20 30 222 121 54.5% $     67,222.83 $    3,491.21 5.2%
30 40 186 100 53.8% $     55,030.50 $    1,811.21 3.3%
40 50 147 75 51.0% $     42,253.13 -$       552.74 -1.3%
50 60 163 84 51.5% $     46,545.70 $        479.45 1.0%
60 70 166 77 46.4% $     45,366.55 -$   3,476.44 -7.7%
70 80 155 84 54.2% $     43,973.47 $    1,267.82 2.9%
80 90 198 104 52.5% $     65,387.43 $    3,750.64 5.7%
90 5000 118 52 44.1% $     35,184.01 -$   5,852.05 -16.6%
1626 842 51.8% $   488,518.27 $    4,281.89 0.9%

This shows better results, and reasonable profits throughout the season until the final matches. Presumably, these are the playoffs where it doesn’t do as well. So it makes 2.2% ROI without the final end of the season. I’m not sure however as this stage, why this is the case.

TOTALS

Overlay #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.075 507 247 48.7% $    33,237.67 -$      1,282.57 -3.9%
0.075 0.1 454 218 48.0% $    41,579.86 -$      1,827.24 -4.4%
0.1 0.125 388 195 50.3% $    45,877.17 -$         890.34 -1.9%
0.125 0.15 415 218 52.5% $    60,085.24 $      2,303.57 3.8%
0.15 0.175 332 148 44.6% $    56,212.59 -$      6,722.61 -12.0%
0.175 0.2 288 149 51.7% $    56,821.42 $      2,390.14 4.2%
0.2 0.25 438 225 51.4% $  102,933.24 $      2,437.00 2.4%
0.25 0.3 280 149 53.2% $    80,059.75 $      4,300.85 5.4%
0.3 0.4 257 137 53.3% $    92,639.37 $      5,186.56 5.6%
0.4 1 118 62 52.5% $    60,841.90 $      3,144.00 5.2%
3477 1748 50.3% $  630,288.21 $      9,039.36 1.4%

Better results with totals, with 1.4% ROI being made, and a 4.4% ROI being made with overlays 17.5%+ which equates to about 345 bets a year.

Match# #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 10 731 691 94.5% $     18,563.54 -$       654.80 -3.5%
10 20 464 260 56.0% $   100,121.97 $  11,777.17 11.8%
20 30 413 220 53.3% $     73,884.28 $    4,041.46 5.5%
30 40 400 193 48.3% $     69,437.21 -$       470.12 -0.7%
40 50 400 197 49.3% $     74,868.48 $        741.11 1.0%
50 60 403 199 49.4% $     67,550.22 $    2,126.65 3.1%
60 70 385 196 50.9% $     66,644.49 -$       997.44 -1.5%
70 80 417 220 52.8% $     66,179.22 -$   1,887.76 -2.9%
80 90 415 211 50.8% $     63,349.98 -$   4,580.94 -7.2%
90 5000 320 207 64.7% $     36,933.73 -$   1,664.59 -4.5%
4348 2594 59.7% $   637,533.11 $    8,430.73 1.3%

Results show great results early, with great profits being made up to around match 60, 2/3rds of the year. Results drop off in the latter half of the season, similar to line betting. With min 17.5%+ overlay as shown below, results are improved a little and a profit was even made for betting in the playoffs. I don’t think one can read too much into below because of the smaller sample size, but results for totals seems promising.

Match#, Overlay>=0.175 #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 10 45 23 51.1% $     14,328.68 -$       658.90 -4.6%
10 20 234 135 57.7% $     73,876.11 $  10,425.28 14.1%
20 30 168 88 52.4% $     46,446.51 $    3,509.33 7.6%
30 40 144 72 50.0% $     39,222.07 $        405.70 1.0%
40 50 167 90 53.9% $     48,856.41 $    2,866.70 5.9%
50 60 142 83 58.5% $     38,072.68 $    5,520.38 14.5%
60 70 144 68 47.2% $     39,584.95 -$   2,141.00 -5.4%
70 80 137 66 48.2% $     37,877.87 -$       842.00 -2.2%
80 90 130 63 48.5% $     35,048.44 -$   1,940.56 -5.5%
90 5000 84 42 50.0% $     23,973.62 $        647.61 2.7%
1395 730 52.3% $   397,287.34 $  17,792.54 4.5%
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5 Comments

  1. admin says:

    NBA predictions will probably start around mid next week

  2. admin says:

    predictions now up. Probabilities available from the download of this calc:

    http://www.sportpunter.com/basketball/nba/nbacalc.xls

  3. Jacques Topps says:

    Are there any forums about this that I could go to?

  4. admin says:

    yes the sportpunter forum!: http://www.sportpunter.com/forum

  5. cin takvimi says:

    Very interesting points you have observed , thankyou for putting up.

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