New ATP tennis model analysis

Model, Sport Models | | December 22, 2010 at 1:50 am

We’ve already had a look at the new upgraded wta model, and the results since the upgrade were fantastic. Only 91 bets were suggested in the latter half of 2010 with the new wta model, but with a 21% return on investment, the new wta model is looking very promising. Our previous analysis of the new wta model is shown here.

But today we will be looking at the newly upgraded atp model. I’ve been working very hard to get it out there, and am still working on it today and for the next several weeks, but at last I can get some analysis done for you for the year 2010.

And the results are relatively pleasing. Shown down the bottom of this article are the statistics, but I will talk about them here first. To start off with, a 3.6% ROI was made, which is similar to the official 3.2% ROI, slightly higher. What is good though is that with the new model, nearly twice as many bets are made, which has resulted in nearly twice as big a profit.

Looking more closely at the data, profits were not found when the probability was below 20% and broke even when the probability was between 20% and 40%. Of course, this is a small sample size. Better results would be from more than one year, and whilst that will take me some time to analyse, I will get onto it.

Just like the “Federer factor” of yesteryear, there is reason to believe that betting when the probability is less than 10% is not profitable. This was also found in the wta analysis. Higher overlays resulted in higher profits which is good to hear, and when just looking at probabilities of 40%+, a 4.6% ROI was made.

Either way, results are quite promising, and there is still a lot of upgrading work to be done.

Prob#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.14212.4%$964.77-$378.01-39.2%
0.10.21091412.8% $5,164.11 -$406.34-7.9%
0.20.31483825.7% $9,099.94 $2,364.82 26.0%
0.30.42005125.5% $17,295.07 -$2,575.56 -14.9%
0.40.52379238.8% $27,537.19 $3,247.93 11.8%
0.50.621010650.5% $33,017.91 $2,358.17 7.1%
0.60.71699757.4% $32,900.37 $1,217.28 3.7%
0.70.814410270.8% $37,074.85 $2,755.21 7.4%
0.80.915011677.3% $57,527.75 $615.931.1%
0.91625385.5% $35,274.91 -$3.640.0%
147167045.5% $255,856.87 $9,195.80 3.6%
Odds#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
11.25736589.0% $35,798.65 $1,285.04 3.6%
1.251.519015078.9% $59,433.99 $2,585.77 4.4%
1.51.7516010364.4% $39,009.06 -$512.81-1.3%
1.7521226452.5% $21,210.95 $1,080.19 5.1%
22.251126658.9% $18,341.06 $4,663.48 25.4%
2.252.51325239.4% $19,964.65 -$1,782.06 -8.9%
2.531565334.0% $19,192.66 -$49.52-0.3%
342136530.5% $21,670.05 $2,714.38 12.5%
45902325.6% $7,344.60 $343.984.7%
510002232913.0% $13,891.20 -$1,132.65 -8.2%
147167045.5% $255,856.87 $9,195.80 3.6%
Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.07522414162.9% $31,865.84 $3,033.58 9.5%
0.0750.119611558.7% $31,006.94 $2,770.20 8.9%
0.10.1251748850.6% $30,053.85 -$836.70-2.8%
0.1250.151265241.3% $23,209.50 -$1,116.15 -4.8%
0.150.1751004242.0% $15,990.71 -$1,016.84 -6.4%
0.1750.2914549.5% $15,937.34 $1,894.61 11.9%
0.20.251526844.7% $29,288.88 $3,008.53 10.3%
0.250.3943436.2% $19,576.54 -$967.13-4.9%
0.30.41053634.3% $18,901.16 $2,740.67 14.5%
0.410002094923.4% $40,026.12 -$314.97-0.8%
147167045.5% $255,856.87 $9,195.80 3.6%
OverlayProb>=0.4#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.07517412571.8% $30,678.01 $2,797.46 9.1%
0.0750.115410769.5% $29,782.37 $3,058.02 10.3%
0.10.1251397755.4% $28,691.38 -$1,147.08 -4.0%
0.1250.15894550.6% $21,472.73 -$740.87-3.5%
0.150.175623150.0% $14,246.00 -$1,586.35 -11.1%
0.1750.2593559.3% $13,790.99 $1,414.57 10.3%
0.20.25986364.3% $25,561.42 $5,307.85 20.8%
0.250.3682841.2% $17,468.27 -$1,037.94 -5.9%
0.30.4512651.0% $15,004.66 $2,395.66 16.0%
0.41000782937.2% $26,637.15 -$270.44-1.0%
97256658.2% $223,332.98 $10,190.88 4.6%

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1 Comment

  1. admin says:

    oh and I forgot, profits acn be increased by $681 and reduced turnover of $1487 for not betting on games where a player has played less than 5 games.

    Thus taking the overall profits to 3.9% ROI

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