2010 Triple J Hottest 100 – who will be this years winner? Predictions and odds

The 2011 predictions and odds article is here
If your looking to place a bet on the Triple J Hottest 100, then sign up at sportingbet.
The triple J hottest 100 is on again for Australian music fans, and hopefully this year we wont get the result before the result is played. Triple j crew got a major slap on the wrist last year when they accidently posted on their website, several days before the actual release time, that Mumford and Suns song Little Lion Man had won.

Congratulations, went the webpage. Turns out some staff member had already created the winning webpage for the group and had accidently uploaded it a week early. As a consequence, the odds for Momford and Suns went from $11 into $2.20 and then the entire market got taken off the bookmakers.

Will there be any insider trading this year? It takes a brave bookmaker to price up the market, but I guess with small turnover the advertising possibilities outweighs the potential loss. Already I notice, that Sportingbet have odds available and have already done a publicity piece at the herald sun website.

Interestingly, they claim that Big Jet Plane by Angus and Julia Stone has been heavily backed by bookmakers. Surprising this when you consider that their price has actually gone out from a starting price of 3.5 to 3.75. I guess Sportingbet want you to think that they are a good thing. But Angus and Julia stone are also the peoples choice at the hottest 100. Being Australian for starters helps, and also having that urban alternative look and feel adds another positive for them.

On the downside is the fact that their songs on their album, despite being a great collection, don’t really stand out by themselves. This is after all a song contest, not an album contest. No better way of highlighting this is to show the 2.50 favourite Cee-Lo Green’s controversial hit Fuck You. Controversial I guess, only because of the language. But can anyone think of any other songs that Cee-Lo Green has sung? Probably not, although we all should know of his writing of Gnarls Barkley’s Crazy.

Keep in mind that Crazy was, also surprisingly, the 2.50 favourite to win in 2006 but came in 6th

So as punters what should we do when betting on the hottest 100? Well, last year, if you had followed the trends you would have collected very well. So what are the trends at the moment? The biggest mover is Duck Sauce’s Barbara Streisand. It started at odds of 51, and is now into 11s.

Had the competition been run a few weeks ago it probably could have won, however, as time goes by, this song gets more annoying, and I can’t see it making the top spot. Plans by Birds of Tokyo has come in from 11 into 6.5. Probably the most liked typical band of the year, the birds are a great chance to take the converted prize. Sparkadia has come in from 26 into 15, whilst John Butlers Revolution has drifted from 9 to 10.

Whilst not being a massive John Butler fan (that’s a surprise to some of you who have seen me I’m sure!), I kinda like his Revolution. Along with Plans, they are the only two songs with a possibility of winning that mould into the older style of triple j music.

So my suggestion? Hmm….I think I’ll watch the markets a little more, and write another post about the countdown soon. Oh and of course, if you make a bet, make sure that you vote for them too!

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Current Odds courtesy of Sportingbet:

F U – CEE-LO GREEN 2.5
BIG JET PLANE – ANGUS & JULIA STONE 3.75
PLANS – BIRDS OF TOKYO 6.5
TOKYO VAMPIRES AND WOLVES – THE WOMBATS 9
REVOLUTION – JOHN BUTLER TRIO 10
BARBARA STREISAND – DUCK SAUCE 11
CLAP YOUR HANDS – SIA 11
SUNDAY BEST – WASHINGTON 12
HURT ME – THE JEZABELS 14
DANCE THE WAY I FEEL -OU EST LE SWIMMING POOL 14
SOLITUDE IS BLISS – TAME IMPALA 14
ROCK IT – LITTLE RED 14
TALKING LIKE IM FALLING DOWN STAIRS – SPARKADIA 15
BANG BANG BANG – MARK RONSON & THE BUSINESS INTL 17
ADDICTED -BLISS N ESSO 17
RICH KIDS – WASHINGTON 21
PUNCHING IN A DREAM – THE NAKED AND FAMOUS 21
MAGIC FOUNTAIN – ART VS SCIENCE 21
LUCIDITY – TAME IMPALA 26
THE BIKE SONG – MARK RONSON & THE BUSINESS INTL 26
RADIOACTIVE – KINGS OF LEON 26
THERES NOTHING IN THE WATER WE CANT FIGHT – CLOUD CONTROL 26
MY EAGLE – CHILDREN COLLIDE 26
WE NO SPEAK AMERICANO – YOLANDA BE COOL & DCUP 26
CLOSE TO YOU – JOHN BUTLER TRIO 34
FOREVER & EVER AMEN – THE DRUMS 34
THE SUBURBS – ARCADE FIRE 34
TEENAGE CRIME – ADRIAN LUX 34
NA NA NA (NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA) – MY CHEMICAL ROMANCE 34
JACKSONS LAST STAND – OU EST LE SWIMMING POOL 34
SHE NEVER WANTS TO DANCE – CITY RIOTS 34
BLACK CROW – ANGUS & JULIA STONE 34
RADAR DETECTOR – DARWIN DEEZ 34
BABY IM GETTING BETTER – GYROSCOPE 34
BIG – DEAD LETTER CIRCUS 41
CONGRATULATIONS – MGMT 41
I CAN CHANGE – LCD SOUNDSYSTEM 41
OVERPASS – JOHN STEEL SINGERS 41
ABC NEWS THEME REMIX – PENDULUM 41
HOLD ON – ANGUS & JULIA STONE 41
IT CAN WAIT – ILLY 41
WAY BACK HOME – BAG RAIDERS 41
MACE SPRAY – THE JEZABELS 41
ECHOES – KLAXONS 41
LETTER – DAN SULTAN 41
EYES WIDE OPEN – GOTYE 41
RABBIT SONG – BOY & BEAR 51
SAVE OUR TOWN – PHILADELPHIA GRAND JURY 51
SOMEBODY TO LOVE ME – MARK RONSON & THE BUSINESS INTL 51
ONE – YEASAYER 51
BARRICADE – INTERPOL 51
I FEEL BETTER – HOT CHIP 51
SLOW MOTION – LITTLE RED 67
WILD AT HEART – BIRDS OF TOKYO 67
AUDIENCE – COLD WAR KIDS 67
MIAMI – FOALS 67
GIVING UP THE GUN – VAMPIRE WEEKEND 67
LETS GO SURFING – THE DRUMS 67
DRUNK GIRLS – LCD SOUND SYSTEM 67
NOT IN LOVE – CRYSTAL CASTLES FT. ROBERT SMITH 67
BROKEN BONES – THE HOLIDAYS 67
YOUNGBLOODS OR ANCHORS – THE AMITY AFFLICTION 81
PUMPED UP KIDS – FOSTER THE PEOPLE 81
SLEEPWALKER – PARKWAY DRIVE 81
AFTER DARK – THE COUNT & SINDEN 101



Who’s your pick for this years title? Add your selection in the comments section below.

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10 Responses to 2010 Triple J Hottest 100 – who will be this years winner? Predictions and odds

  1. Steve says:

    It’s usually the song that’s most popular now, so i would say F you and Plans have a really good chance. I’ll go for the longer shot and bet on Plans.

  2. admin says:

    yep thats what I talked about last year as well. There is a massively strong bias towards current good songs as compared to older ones.

  3. admin says:

    CEE-LO GREEN has drifted out to 3.25 now, making it almost equal with aussie favourite ANGUS & JULIA STONE

  4. Fdasco says:

    LITTLE RED – ROCK IT 3.50

    GET ON IT. IT WILL WIN 100%

  5. admin says:

    with growing support too. Its come in from 17.00 into 4.50, and is easily the biggest mover now

  6. john says:

    have to say, can’t see why dan sultan – the letter is in there. it came out last year and is not on the list.

    as for me, i’m leaning towards birds of tokyo, jbt or little red.

  7. admin says:

    There are some massive movers,

    Rock It – Little Red, is now favourite. Opened at 17.00, now into 2.80

    Teenage Crime – Adrian Lux, opened at 34, now 3.0

  8. Dominic says:

    F U will not win. The song is too poppy and is polarising amongst triple j listeners. Amazed with how much teenage crime has come in. Great song tho… I would have placed a bet earlier had I known how long the odds were 🙁

  9. matt says:

    Boy & Bear – fall at your feet.
    Don’t write it off, made plenty of peoples top 10 list.

  10. Omar Gardino says:

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