We previously looked at how well Sportpunter models had gone in the first half of this year. The results were very good indeed with the average bank increase of about 250% to 400% of your starting bank depending on your strategy. Now, we will look at the strategies and determine which is the best one – well at least discuss it with a little bit of data.
The following graph is how one would have gone betting a moving bank (after every week), different moving banks for each sport, and a constant bank for 1/15th Kelly divisor. Considering that all methods are betting on the same bets, they all generally follow each other.
The moving bank scenario finished with the highest profit for the first six months for 2012 despite a lot more variability over that time. When things were going good, and you could put a few good weeks in a row together, this is when the moving bank strategy excelled. However, the contrary is also true. Given a losing streak, the moving bank suffered more so that the constant bank. This is true also to some degree for the moving different banks, though hardly as extreme.
Of course how much profit one made during a certain amount of time is very dependent for the moving bank scenario on the last few weeks, whilst with a constant bank, as the name suggests, each week is consistently as important in the final profit amount. However more interestingly is the graph below which shows the finished banks (from $10,000) for each of the three methods.
Clearly the above graph shows that the constant (and moving different bank method) are preferable in the first half of 2012 if the Kelly Divisor is less than about 12. For larger more conservative divisors, a moving bank is preferable.
Now naturally, the above analysis implies that you use the same Kelly Divisor on all the sports. One might decide against this as they are more confident on certain sports and sports models than others. But despite this, the point has been proven to some degree, that a constant bank is preferable for smaller and more risky Kelly Divisors, whilst a moving bank is more preferable for more conservative Kelly divisors.
This to me, makes logical sense. But what is the best Kelly divisors and strategies for all the sports? Well soon we shall be providing an excel spreadsheet for you to play around with, but next up we will be looking at the Sportpunter model’s record going back several years.