Sportpunter’s NBL Season 2000/11 analysis

Model, Sport Models | | May 2, 2011 at 1:58 pm

New Zealand have won the NBL championship for 2000/2011 defeating Cairns in the 3rd of 3 finals by 18 points. It was a well deserved win after finishing clear on top of the ladder at the end of the home and away season.

But how did Sportpunter’s NBL model go? Our totals betting seemed to go very well, picking up from a slump early in the season to finish off with a very impressive 9.4% ROI from 90 bets. However the amount won was similar to the amount lost on head to head betting.

Shown below is the amount that we bet for and bet against certain teams throughout the year:

Team #BetsFor #WinsFor %WinsFor $BetFor $ProfitFor %ROIFor
Adelaide 12 3 25% $  1,668.40 $   144.22 9%
Cairns 4 3 75% $  1,245.48 $1,205.29 97%
Gold Coast 1 0 0% $     124.99 -$   124.99 -100%
Melbourne 9 1 11% $  1,654.85 -$1,555.16 -94%
New Zealand 6 4 67% $  1,407.99 $   181.55 13%
Perth 14 4 29% $  3,733.49 -$1,500.75 -40%
Sydney 18 4 22% $  4,140.94 -$1,796.83 -43%
Townsville 8 6 75% $  1,944.89 $1,006.94 52%
Wollongong 14 7 50% $  2,853.70 $   389.43 14%
Team #BetsAg #WinsAg %WinsAg $BetAg $ProfitAg %ROIAg
Adelaide 4 2 50% $  1,238.32 $   183.83 15%
Cairns 11 4 36% $  1,970.91 -$   366.44 -19%
Gold Coast 18 11 61% $  4,632.89 $   912.14 20%
Melbourne 10 5 50% $  2,363.46 -$   256.27 -11%
New Zealand 15 2 13% $  3,010.63 -$1,673.52 -56%
Perth 8 2 25% $  1,391.42 -$   430.60 -31%
Sydney 4 2 50% $     984.02 -$     24.64 -3%
Townsville 10 4 40% $  2,412.05 $   234.59 10%
Wollongong 6 0 0% $     771.03 -$   629.39 -82%

Clearly we lost a lot betting on new team Sydney, whilst losing the most money betting against the premiership team New Zealand which is disappointing as they won their last 5 matches of the previous season.

Whilst there still is fantastic value I believe in the NBL model, I will be looking towards making the model quickly reflect off season changes in teams. As far as totals go however, I have no reason to suggest that they wouldn’t continue to be very profitable in what would have to be a very inefficient market.

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