NRL Model Analysis

Model, Sport Models | | March 21, 2011 at 12:50 pm

NRL betting has got off to a good start, thanks to Manly getting up at 3.77,

here’s an analysis of the model:

.

.

.

.

.

Prob#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.222313.6%$867.49$332.3638.3%
0.20.31222722.1% $9,597.37 $898.429.4%
0.30.42427229.8% $26,368.45 $8,620.20 32.7%
0.40.538314738.4% $51,333.72 $9,164.64 17.9%
0.50.626110741.0% $47,838.49 -$5,022.92 -10.5%
0.60.71326750.8% $29,086.76 -$2,830.09 -9.7%
0.70.8563664.3% $16,182.56 $2,043.48 12.6%
0.81211257.1% $9,053.09 -$1,025.04 -11.3%
TOTAL123947138.0% $190,327.92 $12,181.06 6.4%
Odds#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
11.233100.0% $1,786.28 $272.2415.2%
1.21.4151066.7% $4,330.93 -$161.75-3.7%
1.41.6372567.6% $8,415.76 -$295.73-3.5%
1.61.8683551.5% $13,373.83 -$3,871.09 -28.9%
1.82985253.1% $16,042.58 $134.200.8%
22.524810542.3% $39,243.61 -$1.950.0%
2.5330811537.3% $44,412.42 $1,188.48 2.7%
350046212627.3% $62,722.52 $14,916.66 23.8%
TOTAL123947138.0% $190,327.92 $12,181.06 6.4%
Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.123510544.7% $19,437.49 $44.170.2%
0.10.235715142.3% $43,020.19 -$645.09-1.5%
0.20.32338436.1% $35,131.41 -$1,293.81 -3.7%
0.30.41304333.1% $24,420.98 -$1,524.04 -6.2%
0.40.51013332.7% $21,179.11 $383.381.8%
0.50.6621829.0% $14,352.58 -$199.45-1.4%
0.61742229.7% $19,143.15 $4,146.06 21.7%
1500471531.9% $13,643.01 $11,269.84 82.6%
TOTAL123947138.0% $190,327.92 $12,181.06 6.4%
Home
Prob#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.2200.0%$55.64-$55.64-100.0%
0.20.320630.0% $1,442.73 $349.5524.2%
0.30.4571729.8% $6,390.00 $382.766.0%
0.40.51276349.6% $16,048.84 $7,170.37 44.7%
0.50.61275240.9% $23,222.42 -$4,133.22 -17.8%
0.60.7905257.8% $19,646.02 $938.904.8%
0.70.8372362.2% $10,371.37 -$393.92-3.8%
0.8114857.1% $5,178.72 -$1,039.82 -20.1%
TOTAL47422146.6% $82,355.73 $3,218.97 3.9%
Odds#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
11.222100.0% $1,237.72 $173.5014.0%
1.21.412758.3% $3,426.61 -$400.60-11.7%
1.41.6271866.7% $5,949.01 -$75.81-1.3%
1.61.8472757.4% $8,666.31 -$1,116.28 -12.9%
1.82553156.4% $9,920.17 $988.2410.0%
22.51245746.0% $21,597.78 $764.203.5%
2.531115145.9% $16,887.13 $2,792.08 16.5%
3500962829.2% $14,671.00 $93.640.6%
TOTAL47422146.6% $82,355.73 $3,218.97 3.9%
Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.11005050.0% $10,548.51 -$306.22-2.9%
0.10.21538152.9% $22,379.53 $1,694.53 7.6%
0.20.3824048.8% $14,761.85 $2,113.08 14.3%
0.30.4532343.4% $11,748.33 $613.895.2%
0.40.5351440.0% $8,367.51 $1,568.84 18.7%
0.50.622940.9% $6,047.36 $1,671.31 27.6%
0.612015.0% $5,914.82 -$5,034.76 -85.1%
15008225.0% $2,400.34 $598.3024.9%
TOTAL47322046.5% $82,168.23 $2,918.97 3.6%
Away
Prob#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.220315.0%$811.84$388.0047.8%
0.20.31022120.6% $8,154.64 $548.876.7%
0.30.41855529.7% $19,978.45 $8,237.44 41.2%
0.40.52568432.8% $35,284.88 $1,994.27 5.7%
0.50.61345541.0% $24,616.07 -$889.70-3.6%
0.60.7421535.7% $9,440.75 -$3,768.99 -39.9%
0.70.8191368.4% $5,811.19 $2,437.41 41.9%
0.817457.1% $3,874.37 $14.790.4%
TOTAL76525032.7% $107,972.19 $8,962.09 8.3%
Odds#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
11.211100.0%$548.56$98.7418.0%
1.21.433100.0%$904.32$238.8526.4%
1.41.610770.0% $2,466.74 -$219.91-8.9%
1.61.821838.1% $4,707.53 -$2,754.82 -58.5%
1.82432148.8% $6,122.41 -$854.04-13.9%
22.51244838.7% $17,645.83 -$766.15-4.3%
2.531976432.5% $27,525.28 -$1,603.60 -5.8%
35003669826.8% $48,051.52 $14,823.02 30.8%
TOTAL76525032.7% $107,972.19 $8,962.09 8.3%
Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.11355540.7% $8,888.99 $350.393.9%
0.10.22047034.3% $20,640.66 -$2,339.63 -11.3%
0.20.31514429.1% $20,369.57 -$3,406.89 -16.7%
0.30.4772026.0% $12,672.65 -$2,137.92 -16.9%
0.40.5661928.8% $12,811.61 -$1,185.46 -9.3%
0.50.640922.5% $8,305.23 -$1,870.77 -22.5%
0.61542138.9% $13,228.33 $9,180.82 69.4%
1500471531.9% $13,643.01 $11,269.84 82.6%

Related Posts with Thumbnails

2 Comments

  1. Hareeba says:

    How many seasons does this cover?
    The results pages show 8 seasons and 892 h2h bets but this analysis has 1239 bets?

  2. Hareeba says:

    Actually, on closer examination of the history I find it doesn’t add up. I had deducted the current season’s 8 bets from the 900 total but if I add the 9 completed seasons I get 1192 !

Leave a Reply