More ATP analysis – Favourites by Overlays

Previously we talked about how the new upgraded ATP model did based on certain probabilities and overlays. This analysis is shown here.

Today we shall show you how the ATP model goes for favourites based on overlay. Shown below are tables, each one for when a bet is suggested for certain probabilities. We can have a look at the overlays of these occurrences and judge based on this, what minimum overlay we should be using.

What is shown is that quite clearly, the model does very well when it has a player as a favourite. From the 4383 bets, it has made 5.7% ROI. What is equally good, is that there seems to be no minimum overlay, and hence, the 5% minimum that is usually used at Sportpunter will still apply.

So in theory, for all favourites as determined by Sportpunter, bet with a minimum of 5% overlay.

OverlayProb 0.5-0.6#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.131818558.2% $24,668.78 $3,489.91 14.1%
0.10.1524012351.3% $28,433.10 $1,119.19 3.9%
0.150.218610053.8% $28,269.73 $4,090.53 14.5%
0.20.251708248.2% $30,415.72 $2,296.54 7.6%
0.250.352088741.8% $44,453.79 $266.080.6%
0.350.51445941.0% $37,467.71 $2,260.91 6.0%
0.50.6461941.3% $13,954.90 $2,408.58 17.3%
0.60.75341132.4% $11,132.50 -$97.82-0.9%
0.751211047.6% $7,486.97 $4,427.64 59.1%
1410110.0% $4,164.50 -$2,660.46 -63.9%
TOTAL137767749.2% $230,447.70 $17,601.11 7.6%
OverlayProb 0.6-0.7#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.141826663.6% $47,485.80 $2,042.82 4.3%
0.10.1526516662.6% $44,497.87 $3,112.06 7.0%
0.150.21337959.4% $29,197.94 $2,034.15 7.0%
0.20.25995454.5% $25,190.69 $622.152.5%
0.250.35914448.4% $26,448.90 -$493.63-1.9%
0.350.5803948.8% $27,576.78 $2,132.60 7.7%
0.50.621942.9% $8,251.63 $161.332.0%
0.60.7517635.3% $7,235.12 -$548.22-7.6%
0.7517457.1% $3,245.68 $2,043.34 63.0%
146116.7% $3,042.28 -$1,362.86 -44.8%
TOTAL113766858.8% $222,172.69 $9,743.75 4.4%
OverlayProb 0.7-0.8#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.137827572.8% $65,235.40 $2,242.65 3.4%
0.10.1523616569.9% $59,060.55 $3,468.46 5.9%
0.150.21158372.2% $34,649.50 $4,977.26 14.4%
0.20.25714360.6% $25,337.36 -$652.73-2.6%
0.250.35553461.8% $22,489.73 $1,360.70 6.1%
0.350.5301756.7% $13,680.08 $1,117.06 8.2%
0.50.68562.5% $3,802.64 $1,254.17 33.0%
0.60.757571.4% $3,896.64 $2,220.04 57.0%
0.7515480.0% $2,745.06 $2,752.61 100.3%
14100.0%$644.69-$644.69-100.0%
TOTAL90663169.6% $231,541.65 $18,095.53 7.8%
OverlayProb 0.8-0.9#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.130325383.5% $84,348.14 $5,067.13 6.0%
0.10.1518414981.0% $69,646.29 $4,961.56 7.1%
0.150.2845869.0% $37,497.69 -$1,968.40 -5.2%
0.20.25514078.4% $25,307.02 $3,376.75 13.3%
0.250.35382360.5% $20,620.05 -$1,763.12 -8.6%
0.350.515960.0% $9,437.95 -$27.99-0.3%
0.50.63266.7% $2,090.27 $396.5119.0%
0.60.7511100.0%$735.97$684.4593.0%
0.7512150.0% $1,286.90 $115.449.0%
TOTAL68153678.7% $250,970.27 $10,842.32 4.3%
OverlayProb 0.9-1#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.117416293.1% $87,158.11 $5,649.52 6.5%
0.10.15604778.3% $37,442.73 -$2,264.83 -6.0%
0.150.2201680.0% $13,511.50 $165.011.2%
0.20.25121083.3% $8,583.08 $936.1610.9%
0.250.35121191.7% $8,815.22 $2,426.65 27.5%
0.350.53133.3% $2,376.79 -$1,240.97 -52.2%
0.50.611100.0%$789.02$520.7566.0%
TOTAL28224887.9% $158,676.45 $6,192.29 3.9%

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