The NBA season finished not that long ago with Dallas claiming the championship over Miami. For the inaugural year of Sportspunter’s predictions it definitely was a good one. Head to head betting made a very nice 3.9% ROI, line betting. Line betting made a small profit at 0.2% ROI whilst totals betting recorded a very healthy 5.3% ROI throughout the year.
Full betting histories are available here: http://www.sportpunter.com/result-history/basketball-results/nba/
We previously did some articles on release of the new model outlining how we thought the model would go. We showed here and here that betting on the line should prove marginal profits, which is what we achieved last year. We predicted that totals should achieve around the 1.5% to 4.5% results. This year outperformed previous results which is good to see.
We also predicted that most of the profits would come in the early stages of the season which is what we found in the 2010/11 season. Unfortunately I was unable to gain head to head odds before the start of the year, however with head to head results performing better than the line betting this season, this might be the way to go in the future.
Either way, a very good start to the model, and we should hopefully see better results to come in future years. A full statistical analysis shall be performed closer to the start of the next season.
Nice going! Looking forward to next season already. Please do similar statistical analysis for NCAAB, and perhaps try HEAD-TO-HEAD there too instead of line betting.
Let’s hope the 2011/12 season actually goes ahead…this lockout talk is a tad worrying.