Minimum Overlay in College Basketball

With college basketball starting strong we thought we’d do some analysis on the college basketball since we started posting predictions way back in 2003. Since then, there have been a few years that have been haphazard, but more recently all bets have been recorded. Shown below is in the minimum overlays for betting the totals for NCAAB, both in total, as well as separated into betting overs and unders.

Min.Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
0.050.075153179752.1% $99,103.62 $4,120.77 4.2%
0.0750.1105450948.3% $95,895.09 -$2,481.29 -2.6%
0.10.12575139552.6% $87,707.70 $6,241.38 7.1%
0.1250.1548127156.3% $68,381.50 $10,387.54 15.2%
0.150.17532316651.4% $54,180.59 $3,368.48 6.2%
0.1750.221811552.8% $42,372.81 $3,478.15 8.2%
0.20.2524115162.7% $54,285.96 $15,218.38 28.0%
0.250.31065148.1% $30,223.88 -$382.19-1.3%
0.30.4552341.8% $18,949.47 -$1,467.36 -7.7%
0.42282278.6% $8,455.27 $2,698.42 31.9%
4788250052.2% $559,555.89 $41,182.28 7.4%
Min.OverlayOver#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
0.050.07555929352.4% $35,846.09 $1,677.59 4.7%
0.0750.133716348.4% $30,458.14 -$879.24-2.9%
0.10.12521912054.8% $25,311.17 $2,850.08 11.3%
0.1250.151398661.9% $19,708.85 $5,328.59 27.0%
0.150.175884146.6% $14,494.58 -$674.89-4.7%
0.1750.2472042.6% $9,128.23 -$951.54-10.4%
0.20.25532954.7% $11,583.52 $1,502.81 13.0%
0.250.321942.9% $5,822.24 -$483.01-8.3%
0.30.48337.5% $2,586.70 -$512.50-19.8%
0.421515100.0% $2,410.04 $2,147.94 89.1%
148677952.4% $157,349.55 $10,005.83 6.4%
Min.OverlayUnder#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
0.050.07597250451.9% $63,257.53 $2,443.18 3.9%
0.0750.171734648.3% $65,436.95 -$1,602.05 -2.4%
0.10.12553227551.7% $62,396.53 $3,391.30 5.4%
0.1250.1534218554.1% $48,672.65 $5,058.95 10.4%
0.150.17523512553.2% $39,686.01 $4,043.38 10.2%
0.1750.21719555.6% $33,244.58 $4,429.69 13.3%
0.20.2518812264.9% $42,702.44 $13,715.57 32.1%
0.250.3854249.4% $24,401.65 $100.820.4%
0.30.4472042.6% $16,362.77 -$954.86-5.8%
0.42251976.0% $6,045.23 $550.479.1%
3314173352.3% $402,206.34 $31,176.45 7.8%

Unders, as expected, has the majority of bets, but decent profits are made betting both the unders and the overs. A minimum overlay of 5% ROI seems quite substantial. Interestingly enough, I calculated what the %ROI would be if we received 5c lower odds (eg. 1.90 instead of 1.95) betting the totals.

Amazingly, this increased the %ROI, despite a lower profit. This is because a lower price, generally took away most of the 5-10% lower overlays and hence concentrated more on the larger overlays where good profit has been made. Any good model, should follow this rule, that larger overlays result, on average, to greater profits, and it seems that the college basketball model fits this way exactly.

Lets hope for more good profits, from the free predictions as given by the sportpunter model. All details regarding Sportpunter’s free college basketball picks are shown here:

NCAA

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