Soccer under betting minimum overlays based on League Level

Model, Sport Models | | February 18, 2010 at 10:00 am

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In a previous article we looked at how the soccer model goes betting totals for different groups based on popularity. Results showed that less popular leagues were in fact more profitable than popular leagues. The results was not as extreme as head to head betting, as still good profits were made in all divisions.

Considering that most people know that unders betting usually performs better than overs betting in most sports, it would be interesting to determine how the unders and overs has gone separately for soccer per group.

Shown below is how the unders totals betting as gone per group and for different overlays.

Unders
Group1Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.07523512955% $15,507.02 $1,484.42 10%
0.0750.11647948% $14,830.78 -$716.57-5%
0.10.1251397050% $16,378.79 $471.063%
0.1250.151024544% $14,649.70 -$1,292.21 -9%
0.150.175823441% $13,926.60 -$1,622.82 -12%
0.1750.2583459% $11,135.08 $2,015.61 18%
0.20.225473166% $10,377.52 $3,570.44 34%
0.2250.25392256% $9,435.56 $2,047.69 22%
0.250.3644164% $17,537.95 $6,104.01 35%
0.3100492143% $16,939.85 -$1,035.24 -6%
TOTAL97950652% $140,718.85 $11,026.39 7.8%
Group2Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.07535017751% $23,236.71 -$14.490%
0.0750.131415850% $29,054.18 $481.822%
0.10.1252099947% $24,645.08 -$47.200%
0.1250.151819452% $25,850.62 $2,312.97 9%
0.150.1751346448% $22,964.99 $290.371%
0.1750.21186555% $22,338.60 $3,131.25 14%
0.20.225673045% $14,334.52 -$107.36-1%
0.2250.25492551% $12,156.31 $1,522.49 13%
0.250.3542750% $15,117.55 $41.080%
0.3100582950% $20,231.79 $2,384.90 12%
TOTAL153476850% $209,930.35 $9,995.83 4.8%
Group3Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.07526414455% $18,023.91 $1,718.40 10%
0.0750.11789352% $17,073.77 $815.875%
0.10.1251377152% $16,845.12 $364.972%
0.1250.151205949% $17,273.23 $93.711%
0.150.1751105146% $18,653.02 -$570.05-3%
0.1750.2704057% $13,564.66 $2,719.88 20%
0.20.225361747% $7,603.66 $470.496%
0.2250.25231357% $5,613.94 $857.0315%
0.250.3261142% $6,441.79 -$128.40-2%
0.3100321959% $9,965.40 $3,292.17 33%
TOTAL99651852% $131,058.50 $9,634.07 7.4%
Group4Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.075903842% $6,452.71 -$1,417.26 -22%
0.0750.1733447% $7,386.66 -$474.14-6%
0.10.125612744% $7,626.83 -$854.81-11%
0.1250.15442557% $6,374.95 $829.0513%
0.150.175322063% $5,187.82 $1,450.40 28%
0.1750.2241458% $4,277.27 $1,005.09 23%
0.20.22513862% $2,773.08 $772.7528%
0.2250.257343% $1,609.78 -$183.87-11%
0.250.3161169% $3,645.09 $1,905.44 52%
0.31005240% $1,467.09 $165.9411%
TOTAL36518250% $46,801.28 $3,198.59 6.8%
Group5Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.075321650% $2,430.49 -$140.08-6%
0.0750.1261973% $2,320.74 $1,081.39 47%
0.10.125261454% $3,290.30 -$107.40-3%
0.1250.1520945% $2,784.82 $71.753%
0.150.17511436% $1,767.15 -$248.65-14%
0.1750.211873% $1,927.38 $924.7948%
0.20.22511764% $2,551.10 $861.5534%
0.2250.2522100%$417.65$488.73117%
0.250.34125%$992.15-$100.17-10%
0.31006467% $3,034.96 $641.3321%
TOTAL1498456% $21,516.74 $3,473.24 16.1%

Total unders results has been very good, with results spread evenly around the 4.8% ROI mark to 7.8% ROI mark between groups 1 and 4. Group 5 recorded a 16.1% ROI mark however this involves a small sample size.

For Group1, overlays less than 17.5% were not profitable, however the higher overlays recorded amazingly good results.

Group 2 shows profits throughout the ranges, as does Group 3, whilst Group 3 looks non profitable below a 12.5% overlay.

So what to do? Well I guess its up to the individual, but one method might be to keep the minimum overlay at 17.5% for Group1, and at 12.5% for all the other groups.

If one were to undertake this, then over the period since the start of last year, one would have bet 1541 bets, which is 38.3% of the total if a 5% minimum overlay was bet on. A $37.6k profit would have been recorded, at a rate of 11.9% ROI.

Very good figures indeed, but these are of course based on previous data, and choosing the minimum overlay after it has occurred, will produce a better result than betting live. But still these are very good results, and we will be looking at the over next.

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