We previously looked at betting h2h in soccer and its returns based on league popularity. This time we will look at totals betting using the same five groups of leagues that we used previously. Results pre group are shown below:
Group1 Overlay #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.075 427 200 47% $27,700.42 -$291.36 -1%
0.075 0.1 340 163 48% $30,566.84 $15.20 0%
0.1 0.125 277 124 45% $32,219.92 -$266.23 -1%
0.125 0.15 192 84 44% $27,110.07 -$1,159.39 -4%
0.15 0.175 134 54 40% $22,526.63 -$3,180.66 -14%
0.175 0.2 91 50 55% $17,203.03 $2,310.45 13%
0.2 0.225 68 37 54% $14,697.33 $2,454.50 17%
0.225 0.25 51 28 55% $12,096.57 $2,369.23 20%
0.25 0.3 77 47 61% $20,925.85 $5,892.19 28%
0.3 100 55 24 44% $18,891.16 -$944.17 -5%
TOTAL 1712 811 47% $223,937.82 $7,199.76 3.2%
Group2 Overlay #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.075 718 348 48% $45,745.87 $560.32 1%
0.075 0.1 599 300 50% $53,660.59 $3,018.15 6%
0.1 0.125 445 203 46% $50,743.54 -$50.40 0%
0.125 0.15 367 168 46% $51,158.29 -$254.34 0%
0.15 0.175 270 129 48% $44,874.35 $1,323.17 3%
0.175 0.2 215 110 51% $40,348.63 $4,054.60 10%
0.2 0.225 126 58 46% $27,048.37 $203.13 1%
0.225 0.25 86 46 53% $21,066.58 $3,506.14 17%
0.25 0.3 92 51 55% $25,176.64 $3,714.70 15%
0.3 100 76 40 53% $25,825.44 $4,569.56 18%
TOTAL 2994 1453 49% $385,648.30 $20,645.03 5%
Group3 Overlay #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.075 512 269 53% $34,341.27 $2,657.12 8%
0.075 0.1 380 191 50% $35,142.24 $923.91 3%
0.1 0.125 314 157 50% $36,999.64 $1,690.36 5%
0.125 0.15 252 119 47% $35,736.14 -$247.22 -1%
0.15 0.175 238 105 44% $39,883.60 -$2,336.56 -6%
0.175 0.2 151 74 49% $29,029.51 $1,378.82 5%
0.2 0.225 96 53 55% $19,897.77 $3,063.42 15%
0.225 0.25 71 41 58% $16,755.73 $3,498.78 21%
0.25 0.3 84 35 42% $21,434.81 -$621.04 -3%
0.3 100 91 46 51% $31,191.06 $4,972.08 16%
TOTAL 2189 1090 50% $300,411.77 $14,979.67 5%
Group4 Overlay #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.075 172 80 47% $12,145.65 -$1,952.15 -16%
0.075 0.1 147 73 50% $14,475.37 -$124.11 -1%
0.1 0.125 125 59 47% $14,854.52 -$790.82 -5%
0.125 0.15 87 45 52% $12,474.38 $733.54 6%
0.15 0.175 68 41 60% $11,139.96 $2,578.65 23%
0.175 0.2 56 35 63% $10,283.77 $2,990.36 29%
0.2 0.225 33 19 58% $6,439.81 $1,427.89 22%
0.225 0.25 27 11 41% $6,190.96 -$779.70 -13%
0.25 0.3 35 22 63% $9,155.46 $2,896.74 32%
0.3 100 17 8 47% $5,599.23 $806.82 14%
TOTAL 767 393 51% $102,759.11 $7,787.22 8%
Group5 Overlay #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.075 46 24 52% $3,905.12 -$115.81 -3%
0.075 0.1 37 23 62% $3,618.17 $748.27 21%
0.1 0.125 38 23 61% $5,491.03 $469.74 9%
0.125 0.15 27 11 41% $3,802.24 -$407.98 -11%
0.15 0.175 12 5 42% $1,943.30 -$88.35 -5%
0.175 0.2 13 9 69% $2,402.52 $1,022.62 43%
0.2 0.225 13 9 69% $3,018.51 $1,295.99 43%
0.225 0.25 4 3 75% $902.67 $388.39 43%
0.25 0.3 6 1 17% $1,551.49 -$659.51 -43%
0.3 100 6 4 67% $3,034.96 $641.33 21%
TOTAL 202 112 55% $29,670.01 $3,294.69 11%
For starters once again we have good profit in all the different groups which is great, and also once again the percent return seems to increase as the group size becomes less popular from 3% ROI in Group 1 up to 11% ROI in Group 5.
Looking within groups we can also find some interesting results. In Group 1, a loss was made betting totals with an overlay of 17.5% or less. A 3% ROI loss was made in this circumstance, however it is noted that when the overlay is above this figure, a 14.4% ROI profit has been made. Same sizes are relatively smallish here, with 342 bets with a 17.5% ROI minimum overlay for Group1, but analysis seems to suggest that a greater minimum overlay for totals bet in group1 might be advantageous.
This minimum overlay doesn’t seem to occur in Group2 with all areas producing great profits. Higher overlays recorded greater %ROI’s which is great to see. Similar results are shown in Group3.
Group4 has negative results for overlays less than 12.5% ROI, but considering the great results of neighbouring groups3 and 5, one could say that this is merely due to random variation. Just goes to show that even with hundreds of bets, random variation still plays a very large part. Group5 has limited data, but it would seem that all bets seem to be profitable across the overlays.
So the conclusion to be made here? I would say bet all groups at minimum 5% overlay, however increase that minimum to 17.5% or 20% for the most popular leagues that you think deserve to be in Group1.
As for expected profits. All are pretty consistent over the groups. Group1 has an expected ROI, or average overlay of 12.8%. Group2 has 12.7%, Group3 13.5%, Group4 13.0% and Group5 13.1%.
This is quite surprising that it is so low considering the large %ROI achieved in some of the groups. Put simply this means that the optimal Kelly fractional to bet with in each of these groups is as follows:
Group1 – 12.8 / 3.2 = 3.97
Group2 – 2.37
Group3 – 2.71
Group4 – 1.72
Group5 – 1.18
This in my opinion shows how strong the Sportpunter totals model actually is. Considering your bank balance, I don’t recommend on betting anywhere near a 1.18 Kelly fractional – this is very close to betting at full Kelly. A small sample size might have something to do with it, but the results are very promising indeed. I’m sure the optimal Kelly fraction would decrease for Gorup1 if a minimum overlay of 20% was implemented for the bets
Either way, I see no reason to not have a consistent Kelly fraction amongst all of the groups.
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Another great analysis Jonno.
It would also been inetresting to see this further split by the under and over bets as unders seem to be performing a bit better at this stage.
yep you are right. Unders always seems to go better than overs in most sports.
It would also be interesting to see how Asian handicaps stand up to this sort of analysis by grouping also Jon. A possibility for another article?
yes it will be coming up after this
Very interesting reading… Is there anyway to set up a quicker method to assigning kelly % & overlays to the different level leagues besides maually checking them off? Maybe a worksheet similar to the league one which allows you to choose tiers?
yes I am starting a new calculator as we speak that will be able to move leagues into different groups.