Soccer minimum totals overlays based on League Level

Model, Sport Models | | February 15, 2010 at 2:44 pm

We previously looked at betting h2h in soccer and its returns based on league popularity. This time we will look at totals betting using the same five groups of leagues that we used previously. Results pre group are shown below:

Group1Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.07542720047% $27,700.42 -$291.36-1%
0.0750.134016348% $30,566.84 $15.200%
0.10.12527712445% $32,219.92 -$266.23-1%
0.1250.151928444% $27,110.07 -$1,159.39 -4%
0.150.1751345440% $22,526.63 -$3,180.66 -14%
0.1750.2915055% $17,203.03 $2,310.45 13%
0.20.225683754% $14,697.33 $2,454.50 17%
0.2250.25512855% $12,096.57 $2,369.23 20%
0.250.3774761% $20,925.85 $5,892.19 28%
0.3100552444% $18,891.16 -$944.17-5%
TOTAL171281147% $223,937.82 $7,199.76 3.2%
Group2Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.07571834848% $45,745.87 $560.321%
0.0750.159930050% $53,660.59 $3,018.15 6%
0.10.12544520346% $50,743.54 -$50.400%
0.1250.1536716846% $51,158.29 -$254.340%
0.150.17527012948% $44,874.35 $1,323.17 3%
0.1750.221511051% $40,348.63 $4,054.60 10%
0.20.2251265846% $27,048.37 $203.131%
0.2250.25864653% $21,066.58 $3,506.14 17%
0.250.3925155% $25,176.64 $3,714.70 15%
0.3100764053% $25,825.44 $4,569.56 18%
TOTAL2994145349% $385,648.30 $20,645.03 5%
Group3Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.07551226953% $34,341.27 $2,657.12 8%
0.0750.138019150% $35,142.24 $923.913%
0.10.12531415750% $36,999.64 $1,690.36 5%
0.1250.1525211947% $35,736.14 -$247.22-1%
0.150.17523810544% $39,883.60 -$2,336.56 -6%
0.1750.21517449% $29,029.51 $1,378.82 5%
0.20.225965355% $19,897.77 $3,063.42 15%
0.2250.25714158% $16,755.73 $3,498.78 21%
0.250.3843542% $21,434.81 -$621.04-3%
0.3100914651% $31,191.06 $4,972.08 16%
TOTAL2189109050% $300,411.77 $14,979.67 5%
Group4Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.0751728047% $12,145.65 -$1,952.15 -16%
0.0750.11477350% $14,475.37 -$124.11-1%
0.10.1251255947% $14,854.52 -$790.82-5%
0.1250.15874552% $12,474.38 $733.546%
0.150.175684160% $11,139.96 $2,578.65 23%
0.1750.2563563% $10,283.77 $2,990.36 29%
0.20.225331958% $6,439.81 $1,427.89 22%
0.2250.25271141% $6,190.96 -$779.70-13%
0.250.3352263% $9,155.46 $2,896.74 32%
0.310017847% $5,599.23 $806.8214%
TOTAL76739351% $102,759.11 $7,787.22 8%
Group5Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.075462452% $3,905.12 -$115.81-3%
0.0750.1372362% $3,618.17 $748.2721%
0.10.125382361% $5,491.03 $469.749%
0.1250.15271141% $3,802.24 -$407.98-11%
0.150.17512542% $1,943.30 -$88.35-5%
0.1750.213969% $2,402.52 $1,022.62 43%
0.20.22513969% $3,018.51 $1,295.99 43%
0.2250.254375%$902.67$388.3943%
0.250.36117% $1,551.49 -$659.51-43%
0.31006467% $3,034.96 $641.3321%
TOTAL20211255% $29,670.01 $3,294.69 11%

soccer6For starters once again we have good profit in all the different groups which is great, and also once again the percent return seems to increase as the group size becomes less popular from 3% ROI in Group 1 up to 11% ROI in Group 5.

Looking within groups we can also find some interesting results. In Group 1, a loss was made betting totals with an overlay of 17.5% or less. A 3% ROI loss was made in this circumstance, however it is noted that when the overlay is above this figure, a 14.4% ROI profit has been made. Same sizes are relatively smallish here, with 342 bets with a 17.5% ROI minimum overlay for Group1, but analysis seems to suggest that a greater minimum overlay for totals bet in group1 might be advantageous.

This minimum overlay doesn’t seem to occur in Group2 with all areas producing great profits. Higher overlays recorded greater %ROI’s which is great to see. Similar results are shown in Group3.

Group4 has negative results for overlays less than 12.5% ROI, but considering the great results of neighbouring groups3 and 5, one could say that this is merely due to random variation. Just goes to show that even with hundreds of bets, random variation still plays a very large part. Group5 has limited data, but it would seem that all bets seem to be profitable across the overlays.

So the conclusion to be made here? I would say bet all groups at minimum 5% overlay, however increase that minimum to 17.5% or 20% for the most popular leagues that you think deserve to be in Group1.

As for expected profits. All are pretty consistent over the groups. Group1 has an expected ROI, or average overlay of 12.8%. Group2 has 12.7%, Group3 13.5%, Group4 13.0% and Group5 13.1%.

This is quite surprising that it is so low considering the large %ROI achieved in some of the groups. Put simply this means that the optimal Kelly fractional to bet with in each of these groups is as follows:

Group1 – 12.8 / 3.2 = 3.97

Group2 – 2.37

Group3 – 2.71

Group4 – 1.72

Group5 – 1.18

This in my opinion shows how strong the Sportpunter totals model actually is. Considering your bank balance, I don’t recommend on betting anywhere near a 1.18 Kelly fractional – this is very close to betting at full Kelly. A small sample size might have something to do with it, but the results are very promising indeed. I’m sure the optimal Kelly fraction would decrease for Gorup1 if a minimum overlay of 20% was implemented for the bets

Either way, I see no reason to not have a consistent Kelly fraction amongst all of the groups.

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6 Comments

  1. flosso says:

    Another great analysis Jonno.

    It would also been inetresting to see this further split by the under and over bets as unders seem to be performing a bit better at this stage.

  2. sportpunter says:

    yep you are right. Unders always seems to go better than overs in most sports.

  3. Brett says:

    It would also be interesting to see how Asian handicaps stand up to this sort of analysis by grouping also Jon. A possibility for another article?

  4. sportpunter says:

    yes it will be coming up after this

  5. dooncan says:

    Very interesting reading… Is there anyway to set up a quicker method to assigning kelly % & overlays to the different level leagues besides maually checking them off? Maybe a worksheet similar to the league one which allows you to choose tiers?

  6. sportpunter says:

    yes I am starting a new calculator as we speak that will be able to move leagues into different groups.

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