Tennis Analysis 2009 – Part 1

tennis2Following the 2009 Tennis season, I’im going to have a look at how we did during the season.

First up is the ATP, which started well, had a terrible mid to late season and then finished with a good couple of weeks at the end.

The breakdown of all the bets that were made are shown below. This shows a couple of interesting things. Profits were not nearly as big as previous years where in 2008 11.2% ROI was made. Higher probabilities didn’t make a profit, however the amount of bets means we can’t read too much into this. What is interesting is that betting at odds of 3.00 or more failed to make a profit. This is shown in the overlays as well, where our big 100% overlays made a loss with only one win from 23 bets. This is normally our bread and butter. This area, 100%+ overlays was really where the model fell down. I will be analysing the data in more detail to determine why this was the case. With so few bets it could well be just a case of random variation, just not in our favour.

ProbBetween#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.100-$-$--
0.10.200-$-$--
0.20.300-$-$--
0.30.41603622.5% $23,783.56 -$812.79-3.4%
0.40.51183933.1% $23,499.31 $81.330.3%
0.50.624110945.2% $38,708.44 $1,651.39 4.3%
0.60.71939750.3% $39,843.12 $1,802.93 4.5%
0.70.81258366.4% $34,859.76 $103.990.3%
0.80.9614268.9% $23,443.95 -$1,477.48 -6.3%
0.91201575.0% $11,696.24 -$316.00-2.7%
TOTAL91842145.9% $195,834.39 $1,033.38 0.5%
OddsBetween#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
11.4765876.3% $28,100.02 $1,499.16 5.3%
1.41.716210564.8% $38,157.77 $165.040.4%
1.721557447.7% $29,553.76 -$2,124.56 -7.2%
22.251316045.8% $23,323.53 -$2,351.40 -10.1%
2.252.5673044.8% $14,866.31 $2,371.88 16.0%
2.53763748.7% $16,998.01 $6,244.11 36.7%
341393625.9% $24,865.40 -$1,152.12 -4.6%
461042120.2% $18,092.43 -$1,952.16 -10.8%
610700.0% $1,590.43 -$1,379.85 -86.8%
1050100.0%$286.72-$286.72-100.0%
TOTAL91842145.9% $195,834.39 $1,033.38 0.5%
OverlayBetween#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.0500-$-$--
0.050.119111962.3% $29,393.27 $744.112.5%
0.10.151478155.1% $29,596.59 -$751.29-2.5%
0.150.2885259.1% $23,948.53 $1,634.18 6.8%
0.20.25542648.1% $14,394.36 -$800.55-5.6%
0.250.3903842.2% $17,413.68 $1,352.18 7.8%
0.30.41394633.1% $29,823.96 -$1,146.67 -3.8%
0.40.61264233.3% $28,892.49 $4,651.68 16.1%
0.61601626.7% $15,256.10 $707.124.6%
152314.3% $7,115.39 -$5,357.37 -75.3%
TOTAL91842145.9% $195,834.39 $1,033.38 0.5%

We will have the WTA analysis in the next post, which is a lot more encouraging. Full results to come.

Sign up here for Sportpunter’s tennis model in 2010

Related Posts with Thumbnails
This entry was posted in Model, Sport Models. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.