Nadal’s form hasn’t been the greatest since the US Open. That sentence in itself is very debatable. I mean, after all, he won the AIG Open Tennis Championships in Japan and has a 8-2 win loss record. He did however lose both matched to 10-1 outsiders Melzer and Garcia-Lopez, and fended off several match points against, against Troicki in the semi finals in Japan.
Only a brave man would bet constantly against Nadal, but when its not clay, and its post US Open, there could be a case for it.
If we bet to win $1000 on Nadal for all his matches post US Open over the years (in the months of October and November), then we would have made 56 bets, and turned over $427,500 for a loss of $23,397. That’s a loss of around 5.5% ROI.
That’s not a massive loss, but if you were betting to win $1,000 against Nadal on all matches post US open then you would have still made 56 bets, but this time turned over $30,892. But more importantly, this time you would have profiteered $6057 for a % return of 19.6. Even if you do not consider his loss to Melzer last night – which is the reason for my enquiry – a 16% ROI profit would have been made.
The sample size of 56 bets is small, but it is something to think of. Perhaps his motivation isn’t quite the same as normal, or perhaps there is value for him off the red top. Either way, there could be an edge against Nadal and perhaps other high flyer players like Federer post US Open.