Sportpunter’s NRL Model Analysis

Model, Sport Models | | March 10, 2010 at 2:10 pm

Previously we looked at how the big outsiders have done well in NRL since 2002. Simply betting on all teams where the odds are greater then 4.00 would have netted a profit in excess of 19% ROI. But when does this occur? On home teams or away teams?

Shown below is a breakdown of how home and away teams have gone for underdogs (Odds greater or equal to 2) and for odds greater than 4.00

#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
Home Underdogs47519741.5% $17,912.18 $1,537.82 8.6%
Away Underdogs97532333.1% $32,339.72 -$439.72-1.4%
TOTAL145052035.9% $50,251.90 $1,098.10 2.2%
#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
Home Odds >=4591220.3% $1,178.51 -$28.51-2.4%
Away Odds >=42335624.0% $4,430.80 $1,119.20 25.3%
TOTAL2926823.3% $5,609.31 $1,090.69 19.4%

As you can see, simply betting on the home team when they are the underdog has netted a very nice 8.6% ROI from nearly 500 bets. Away underdogs has lost slightly. But interestingly, home teams with odds greater than 4.00 have lost slightly whilst the away team has gained. Of course, there are only 59 times when the home team has odds in excess of 4.00, as it is obviously a reasonably rare occasion.

Shown below is how the Sportpunter NRL model has gone since 2002.

Prob#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.28833.4%$867.49$332.3638.3%
0.20.32332510.7% $8,921.06 $1,265.24 14.2%
0.30.44656213.3% $24,096.96 $8,563.68 35.5%
0.40.573112917.6% $45,279.56 $9,156.24 20.2%
0.50.67339613.1% $42,324.67 -$2,906.11 -6.9%
0.60.74655912.7% $26,959.13 -$2,611.70 -9.7%
0.70.82333314.2% $14,388.42 $3,092.17 21.5%
0.81881213.6% $9,053.09 -$1,025.04 -11.3%
TOTAL303641913.8% $171,890.39 $15,866.85 9.2%
Odds#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
11.213932.2% $1,786.28 $272.2415.2%
1.21.4338103.0% $4,330.93 -$161.75-3.7%
1.41.6483224.6% $7,769.03 -$394.46-5.1%
1.61.8332288.4% $11,428.89 -$3,502.23 -30.6%
1.822944615.6% $14,792.83 $56.300.4%
22.54829619.9% $35,617.22 $1,444.35 4.1%
2.533859825.5% $38,644.51 $2,392.00 6.2%
350058311619.9% $57,520.70 $15,760.39 27.4%
TOTAL303641913.8% $171,890.39 $15,866.85 9.2%
Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.11958141.5% $16,841.12 -$874.69-5.2%
0.10.231813743.1% $38,296.59 $141.690.4%
0.20.32157534.9% $32,667.91 -$2,195.41 -6.7%
0.30.41244233.9% $22,999.75 -$536.12-2.3%
0.40.5853136.5% $17,724.55 $2,416.76 13.6%
0.50.6581729.3% $13,427.45 $0.530.0%
0.61682232.4% $17,256.92 $6,032.28 35.0%
1500431432.6% $12,676.09 $10,881.80 85.8%
TOTAL110641937.9% $171,890.39 $15,866.85 9.2%

nrl2As for how our model has gone, it is no surprise that it has done exceptionally well with the bigger odds. Shown below is how it has gone since 2002. Probabilities under 50% have made 24% ROI from 1517 bets. Betting at odds of 3.00 or more has made an incredible 27.4% ROI. Overlays of 40% or more have made 31% ROI from 254 bets.

The bias in the NRL is simply incredible. Simply by changing the way you bet, the possibilities are endless for NRL given the massive bias and a very strong model. Of course there might not be overlays on all outsiders, and the model shows that instead of making 19% ROI over the big overlays and odds, the model makes a lot more profit, and is independent of the bias, which in itself is a very important thing. In other words, if the market adjusts, the model will, and should still do well.

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1 Comment

  1. LRBC says:

    it might be telling us, how much pulling up is going on in NRL

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