Tennis Analysis 2009 – Part 4

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Last week we looked at the successful WTA 2009 season, however today we will look at how the tennis model went in the last five years since 2005 to give a better overall idea of how the model works. The data is shown below in the tables, and following this will be a good write up for discussion.

Unlike the mens analysis, all raw data without SP rules, showed good profits amongst almost all the probabilities (probabilities of 20% and below showed a loss), and all odds and overlays. Higher overlays resulted in higher returns which is a key for a good model to show.

When looking at the sportpunter rules, when the probability was between 30% and 40%, we basically broke even from 358 bets, we will look at this are more closely soon. All other probabilities showed good profits. Similarly all odds showed good profits, but also interestingly a loss was found when betting overlays between 5% and 10%. This loss was quite small (only -0.9% ROI), but with over 1000 bets it is sure to be significant. Perhaps a minimum 10% overlay for when probabilities are 50%+ should be undertaken.

All surfaces showed good profits.

When looking at the overlays when the probability of winning is between 20 and 30%, we can see that a minimum of 30% or 40% overlay shows a good profit. A minimum 40% overlay (to give some leeway to the big negative returns when the overlay is 20-30%) perhaps should be implemented.

For the 30% to 40% range, it would seem that the same 40%-50% minimum overlay range should be executed.

The 40-50% range interestingly shows a profit from even the 0% minium overlay. A 13.3%ROI when the overlay is less than 5% shows exactly what a low sample size can do. On average, the expected return could not be more than 5%, so the fact that the return in this period is so high is no doubt due to luck. There seems no reason why a minimum 10% overlay, to keep in line when the probability is greater than 50%, should not be used.

Hence, given the above, it is suggested that the new rules for WTA tennis betting in 2010 will be as follows:

Probability 40%+: min 10% overlay

Probability 20-40%, min 40% overlay.

Let us know what you think in the comments below.

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