Tennis Analysis 2009 – Part 4

Last week we looked at the successful WTA 2009 season, however today we will look at how the tennis model went in the last five years since 2005 to give a better overall idea of how the model works. The data is shown below in the tables, and following this will be a good write up for discussion.

Prob#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.119063.2% $3,728.07 -$1,543.09 -41.4%
0.10.25535910.7% $23,399.44 -$1,463.45 -6.3%
0.20.374913818.4% $49,989.88 $5,159.04 10.3%
0.30.494725226.6% $81,583.50 -$1,741.03 -2.1%
0.40.5113245239.9% $132,703.21 $17,130.20 12.9%
0.50.6101846846.0% $155,022.50 -$2,533.05 -1.6%
0.60.7117669759.3% $208,008.26 $24,959.24 12.0%
0.70.8115578868.2% $262,276.93 $16,796.32 6.4%
0.80.9109687880.1% $326,980.41 $24,387.76 7.5%
0.9165258890.2% $268,285.25 $7,059.81 2.6%
TOTAL8668432649.9% $1,511,977.43 $88,211.76 5.8%
Odds#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
11.41828152483.4% $513,586.44 $15,529.65 3.0%
1.41.7144396166.6% $308,013.07 $14,762.71 4.8%
1.7285348657.0% $159,646.56 $11,411.08 7.1%
22.2560730450.1% $100,946.86 $5,873.29 5.8%
2.252.552422743.3% $82,575.69 $8,667.67 10.5%
2.5383932038.1% $115,599.20 $19,216.00 16.6%
3490226529.4% $102,345.92 $7,931.06 7.7%
4676815019.5% $73,501.21 -$2,436.01 -3.3%
6104886813.9% $33,770.24 $6,769.31 20.0%
1050414215.1% $21,270.79 $1,208.45 5.7%
TOTAL8666432649.9% $1,511,255.97 $88,933.22 5.9%
Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.052093134064.0% $183,203.55 $2,319.89 1.3%
0.050.1152586656.8% $238,399.74 -$1,461.40 -0.6%
0.10.15114361954.2% $236,813.66 $4,568.55 1.9%
0.150.286944451.1% $191,022.56 $12,426.28 6.5%
0.20.2563226241.5% $132,535.01 $1,245.57 0.9%
0.250.347620743.5% $110,754.95 $8,553.20 7.7%
0.30.464724537.9% $142,518.04 $14,694.49 10.3%
0.40.666120831.5% $142,630.93 $14,917.62 10.5%
0.6139710727.0% $91,419.04 $21,267.18 23.3%
152222712.2% $41,573.81 $5,540.56 13.3%
TOTAL8665432549.9% $1,510,871.29 $84,071.94 5.6%
SP Rules
Prob#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.100#DIV/0!$-$-#DIV/0!
0.10.200#DIV/0!$-$-#DIV/0!
0.20.300#DIV/0!$-$-#DIV/0!
0.30.43588523.7% $53,545.50 $118.820.2%
0.40.540614335.2% $80,857.79 $15,539.98 19.2%
0.50.683136543.9% $149,539.41 -$2,522.39 -1.7%
0.60.789652458.5% $196,012.13 $24,629.13 12.6%
0.70.882755066.5% $239,857.88 $17,242.93 7.2%
0.80.970855077.7% $281,611.15 $23,878.29 8.5%
0.9130125584.7% $177,364.58 $4,798.39 2.7%
TOTAL4327247257.1% $1,178,788.44 $83,685.14 7.1%
Odds#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
11.487470881.0% $362,378.30 $13,512.37 3.7%
1.41.7105770967.1% $289,108.94 $14,203.80 4.9%
1.7269039457.1% $154,359.41 $11,430.27 7.4%
22.2545521847.9% $95,924.73 $4,507.77 4.7%
2.252.525111947.4% $64,736.10 $9,260.96 14.3%
2.5331513342.2% $80,683.83 $19,251.44 23.9%
3440812931.6% $77,894.03 $8,573.85 11.0%
462485823.4% $46,451.25 $977.052.1%
61025416.0% $5,732.58 $3,486.90 60.8%
1050300.0%$828.41-$828.41-100.0%
TOTAL4326247257.1% $1,178,097.58 $84,376.00 7.2%
Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.0500#DIV/0!$-$-#DIV/0!
0.050.1104471568.5% $221,143.82 -$1,881.71 -0.9%
0.10.1577151566.8% $216,403.40 $5,165.77 2.4%
0.150.253135065.9% $165,433.92 $13,450.07 8.1%
0.20.2532018557.8% $105,244.40 $3,593.27 3.4%
0.250.338719750.9% $106,336.52 $9,666.94 9.1%
0.30.450222745.2% $134,139.31 $15,435.02 11.5%
0.40.644817639.3% $126,800.29 $12,029.77 9.5%
0.612559035.3% $78,306.41 $18,913.73 24.2%
15681725.0% $24,289.51 $8,003.12 32.9%
TOTAL4326247257.1% $1,178,097.58 $84,376.00 7.2%
Surface
Hard2161122156.5% $573,500.45 $40,488.75 7.1%
Clay132178559.4% $379,762.23 $27,217.00 7.2%
Grass34219055.6% $85,252.23 $7,370.91 8.6%
I.Hard45424554.0% $124,063.16 $1,686.88 1.4%
Carpet493163.3% $16,210.36 $6,921.60 42.7%
TOTAL4327247257.1% $1,178,788.44 $83,685.14 7.1%
Overlay Prob 20-30%Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.051032221.4%$768.30-$172.59-22.5%
0.050.11012221.8% $2,317.63 -$183.27-7.9%
0.10.15691217.4% $2,489.89 -$588.69-23.6%
0.150.2651421.5% $3,235.21 -$90.95-2.8%
0.20.25651015.4% $3,803.27 -$1,036.43 -27.3%
0.250.34736.4% $3,099.41 -$1,994.65 -64.4%
0.30.4681420.6% $5,393.18 $638.1211.8%
0.40.61082220.4% $10,904.54 $2,148.46 19.7%
0.61641320.3% $8,215.58 $3,479.08 42.3%
110059610.2% $9,762.86 $2,959.96 30.3%
TOTAL74913818.4% $49,989.88 $5,159.04 10.3%
Overlay Prob 30-40%Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.051654225.5% $2,234.42 -$564.29-25.3%
0.050.11354331.9% $4,878.81 -$94.21-1.9%
0.10.15973030.9% $5,355.23 $37.940.7%
0.150.21012827.7% $7,544.98 -$621.12-8.2%
0.20.25912426.4% $8,024.56 -$618.17-7.7%
0.250.3611931.1% $6,482.61 $866.5113.4%
0.30.4881820.5% $11,031.41 -$2,876.63 -26.1%
0.40.6972525.8% $14,327.34 $1,274.79 8.9%
0.61882123.9% $16,074.62 $2,909.39 18.1%
11002428.3% $5,629.51 -$2,055.24 -36.5%
TOTAL94725226.6% $81,583.50 -$1,741.03 -2.1%
Overlay Prob 40-50%Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.051888947.3% $3,671.80 $487.3313.3%
0.050.11697443.8% $9,228.96 $431.004.7%
0.10.151355641.5% $11,264.27 $373.133.3%
0.150.21265140.5% $13,691.23 $594.054.3%
0.20.251083936.1% $13,989.16 -$295.29-2.1%
0.250.3722534.7% $10,719.25 -$12.11-0.1%
0.30.41324836.4% $23,354.00 $1,495.65 6.4%
0.40.61214839.7% $25,129.48 $8,093.57 32.2%
0.61631625.4% $16,191.30 $165.001.0%
110018633.3% $5,463.77 $5,797.87 106.1%
TOTAL113245239.9% $132,703.21 $17,130.20 12.9%

Uannakournikovanlike the mens analysis, all raw data without SP rules, showed good profits amongst almost all the probabilities (probabilities of 20% and below showed a loss), and all odds and overlays. Higher overlays resulted in higher returns which is a key for a good model to show.

When looking at the sportpunter rules, when the probability was between 30% and 40%, we basically broke even from 358 bets, we will look at this are more closely soon. All other probabilities showed good profits. Similarly all odds showed good profits, but also interestingly a loss was found when betting overlays between 5% and 10%. This loss was quite small (only -0.9% ROI), but with over 1000 bets it is sure to be significant. Perhaps a minimum 10% overlay for when probabilities are 50%+ should be undertaken.

All surfaces showed good profits.

When looking at the overlays when the probability of winning is between 20 and 30%, we can see that a minimum of 30% or 40% overlay shows a good profit. A minimum 40% overlay (to give some leeway to the big negative returns when the overlay is 20-30%) perhaps should be implemented.

For the 30% to 40% range, it would seem that the same 40%-50% minimum overlay range should be executed.

The 40-50% range interestingly shows a profit from even the 0% minium overlay. A 13.3%ROI when the overlay is less than 5% shows exactly what a low sample size can do. On average, the expected return could not be more than 5%, so the fact that the return in this period is so high is no doubt due to luck. There seems no reason why a minimum 10% overlay, to keep in line when the probability is greater than 50%, should not be used.

Hence, given the above, it is suggested that the new rules for WTA tennis betting in 2010 will be as follows:

Probability 40%+: min 10% overlay

Probability 20-40%, min 40% overlay.

Let us know what you think in the comments below.

Sign up to the Sportpunter Tennis Model by 31/12/09 to receive a free Sportpunter Polo shirt and free entry, along with myself, into day 1 of the Australian Tennis Open.

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