Sportpunter’s AFL Model Analysis

The AFL season is set to start again this Thursday and with my personal favourite model, we will be predicting from day 1. The tigers play Carlton in the traditional first up game, and we hope (or maybe we don’t) that it will a little closer game. IT may well be the year of the tiger, but any resemblance to Richmond is surely coincidental. Many people have put their stamp on the bulldogs to bark, and as punters we do indeed hope that the dogs – in another form – will.

But first up we will have a look at how the model has gone betting on the head to head, and determine exactly where the profits and losses can be further analysed.

Shown below is the analysis of Sportpunter’s AFL model from day 1, with exceptional results shown.

136569251% $259,275.82 $32,720.52 12.6%
136569251% $259,275.82 $32,720.52 12.6%
136569251% $259,275.82 $32,720.52 12.6%

afl2Profits are generally recorded throughout all probabilities and all odds, which is great too see. And just like any good model, higher overlays result in higher profits, with a return of 27.6% ROI from 250 bets for overlays greater than 35%.

It seems therefore that the model is right on the market with regards to head to head betting. But has the model done better betting on the line? We will look at that next.

Related Posts with Thumbnails
This entry was posted in Model, Sport Models. Bookmark the permalink.

7 Responses to Sportpunter’s AFL Model Analysis

  1. Hareeba says:

    Those are excellent numbers Jon.
    None of your other model analyses have shown such consistence of profits across the board.
    I don’t see any reason to attempt filtering for H2H betting on those figures.
    It will be interesting to see if the line betting shows us anything different.

  2. sportpunter says:

    yep thats the gem of the model and sport I believe. The line betting is very interesting tomorrow

  3. Craig Eyles says:

    This is a great model. Hope you have plenty of profit this year.
    Designing a margin model, so I hope we both have a good year.

  4. Hareeba says:

    Yes, interesting again.
    Despite the display being badly distorted – particularly the home v away stats ?
    You didn’t do home v away on the H2H which might show similar tendencies? If so then the model isn’t adequately adjusting for home advantage perhaps?

  5. sportpunter says:

    Hareeba, you commented too soon! the page is fixed now and easy reading. I will look at home away stats for h2h next

  6. Hareeba says:

    Apologies for beating the gun there but I had been looking out for that analysis and pounced on it 🙂
    Another thing which occurs to me is that there could well be a marked difference between home state and interstate away results.
    I recall a few years back we simply didn’t back teams travelling interstate – particularly to WA.
    Victorian teams playing “away” at the G or the dome are virtually only nominally away teams. Pussy Park is a different matter :(.

  7. sportpunter says:

    No need to apologise, I was just trying to work out how you reliased it was up so soon! Do you use the RSS feed?
    Right you are again Hareeba about HGA but also with interstate travel, my analysis which will be shown tomorrow as well, indicate a lot bigger bias when hosting a travelling side.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.