Tennis Analysis 2009 – Part 6

Sport Models | | December 24, 2009 at 9:00 am

When looking at the ATP analysis for the favourites, the data is shown below with a brief discussion following:

Overlay Prob 50-60%Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.0531016854.2% $8,354.41 -$116.16-1.4%
0.050.123611448.3% $18,503.13 -$789.72-4.3%
0.10.1520911856.5% $24,715.32 $3,785.48 15.3%
0.150.21828446.2% $27,730.66 -$257.90-0.9%
0.20.251215041.3% $21,556.05 -$1,496.39 -6.9%
0.250.3924144.6% $18,652.49 $955.285.1%
0.30.41555736.8% $36,699.97 -$3,866.22 -10.5%
0.40.61427653.5% $40,041.90 $17,305.16 43.2%
0.61641929.7% $21,659.77 -$995.08-4.6%
11008225.0% $3,162.71 -$227.10-7.2%
TOTAL151972948.0% $221,076.40 $14,297.35 6.5%
Overlay Prob 60-70%Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.0539024663.1% $16,425.86 -$3.460.0%
0.050.133419458.1% $37,185.94 -$1,298.69 -3.5%
0.10.1520311154.7% $34,549.59 -$2,014.82 -5.8%
0.150.21248871.0% $26,857.46 $7,696.79 28.7%
0.20.25773748.1% $19,193.79 -$1,599.41 -8.3%
0.250.3472655.3% $12,921.87 $1,428.25 11.1%
0.30.4773950.6% $24,102.28 $1,531.27 6.4%
0.40.6794658.2% $29,149.85 $10,079.84 34.6%
0.61261142.3% $11,457.57 $1,702.99 14.9%
1100400.0% $2,020.76 -$2,020.76 -100.0%
TOTAL136179858.6% $213,864.96 $15,502.00 7.2%
Overlay Prob 70-80%Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.0539728772.3% $25,340.54 -$704.02-2.8%
0.050.123918376.6% $40,745.16 $4,501.75 11.0%
0.10.1516011370.6% $39,582.71 $2,358.64 6.0%
0.150.2905662.2% $27,059.35 -$443.73-1.6%
0.20.25594067.8% $20,527.97 $2,126.82 10.4%
0.250.3301756.7% $11,524.19 -$404.54-3.5%
0.30.4322268.8% $13,355.16 $3,451.87 25.8%
0.40.619736.8% $9,001.15 -$2,301.09 -25.6%
0.6117635.3% $9,372.89 -$1,989.66 -21.2%
1100100.0%$658.26-$658.26-100.0%
TOTAL104473170.0% $197,167.38 $5,937.79 3.0%
Overlay Prob 80-90%Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.0529024283.4% $31,962.03 $843.432.6%
0.050.116013081.3% $43,877.81 $2,154.22 4.9%
0.10.15857284.7% $31,825.82 $3,961.21 12.4%
0.150.2685580.9% $29,340.91 $4,022.53 13.7%
0.20.25262076.9% $12,844.48 $1,650.55 12.9%
0.250.314964.3% $7,416.68 -$254.63-3.4%
0.30.410660.0% $6,049.96 -$230.79-3.8%
0.40.68450.0% $4,853.90 -$588.57-12.1%
0.6144100.0% $2,600.35 $2,788.48 107.2%
1100100.0%$707.49-$707.49-100.0%
TOTAL66654281.4% $171,479.46 $13,638.93 8.0%
Overlay Prob 90-100%Overlay#Bets#Wins%Wins$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.0517817196.1% $47,492.24 $1,209.08 2.5%
0.050.1544787.0% $25,576.47 $248.171.0%
0.10.15201680.0% $12,661.32 -$170.12-1.3%
0.150.2141285.7% $8,747.44 $902.1110.3%
0.20.2566100.0% $4,002.88 $1,373.17 34.3%
0.250.300-$-$--
0.30.4100.0%$700.42-$700.42-100.0%
0.40.6100.0%$733.27-$733.27-100.0%
0.6100-$-$--
110000-$-$--
TOTAL27425292.0% $99,914.04 $2,128.72 2.1%

menstennisHere one sees good profits amongst all groups. From 2.1% ROI in the 90%-100% range, to 8% ROI in the 80-90% range. There is little to be concerned of here. One may note that when the probability is under 70%, then the model has not been profitable when the overlay is under 10%. Punters may want to restrict their betting in these cases. However with massive profits obtained in the 10-15% overlay range when the probability is between 50 and 60%, and again between 70 and 80%, this could well be just a issue of random variation due to a small sample size.

Interestingly, when the overlay is greater than 60% and the probability greater than 50%, a 4.1% ROI loss was made. It is hard to look to closely at this, because just the next step down – when the overlay is between 40 and 60% – for the same probabilities, a 28.3% ROI profit was made.

It is hard to get any conclusive analysis except for the fact that the model is strongly positive for ATP for favourites. A similar analysis for WTA will follow in the next post.

Let us know what you think in the comments below.

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6 Comments

  1. Bovina says:

    Thanks. I think its very interesting to see some numbers for the favourites as well. I am surprised by the 50-60% probs. It looks like all the real profit there is when the overlay is greater than 40%. I think I will change my betting strategy for that segment.

    When you talk about small sample size Jon, how many bets do you think are needed before a sample size is good and variation is not a factor?

  2. sportpunter says:

    its really hard to say bovina, probably around 500-1000 bets, which is of course very high. We can only approximate

  3. Bovina says:

    If we look at the 50-60% probs then. Theres about a 1000 bets combined between 5 and 40% overlay with no real profit. So isn’t that a good sample size and a fair call to say that we should only bet overlays greater than 40% in the 50-60% probs? Or am I missing something there?

  4. sportpunter says:

    yes for sure you make a good point, and it would probably be a godo wise decision to only bet 40% overlays plus in this braket. However it may not pan out that way. Look at the massive profits from 40-60% overlays, compared to 30-40% overlays. That is how much natural variation occurs.

    That said, I agree with you, that it might be better in the long term, to bet 40% min overlay for this bracket. At least you wont be wasting time betting bets that are break even or only marginally positive

  5. sportpunter says:

    Also another thing. considering the federer factor, it makes little sence to me, why the minimum overlay for the 50-60% range should be greater than the 40-50% range. Hence the random variation between ranges

  6. Bovina says:

    Thanks for the input Jon. I will use a more defensive strategy in ATP this season in an effort to get back on the winning track. Only time will tell if its a wise decision or if I am missing out on some nice profits in the lower overlays.

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