AFL Grand Final

What a ripper grand final it will be. That is, apart from the thunderstorms and possible hail that is meant to disrupt it.

I posted previously how, given this case, the unders might be the better bet, and indeed centrebet’s line has decreased from 170.5 down to 165.5. Maybe some of you took the advice and plundered on. However in a low scoring windy wet game there might be another market that one could use. In a wet and windy day, more behinds are usually kicked than goals, but it seems that the bookies prices for these have not yet been adjusted.

You can get odds of 3.80 for Geelong to first kick a behind and 3.90 for the saints to first kick a behind at Bet Choice and Sportsbet Oz respectively. This equates to a 51.9% chance of the first score being a behind. Whilst the saints have been pretty accurate in front of goal of late, everyone remembers the yips that have plagued Geelong of late.

Last years grand final for one, where they kicked 11 goals 23 points. But the reason why there might be an overlay here is not because of the accuracy of the players, but the likelihood that players might take a while to account for the wind, the greater chance that players will go for goal from 50 meters out only to see the wet ball drop short, and the probability that there will be several “rushed” behinds if the rain starts to pour.

It wouldn’t be much of an advantage I would think, perhaps a 55% chance of the first score behind a behind. But even with a 55% chance of a behind up front, that’s still a 5.9% overlay, and perhaps worth taking up.

The first shot on goal is always exciting anyway.

And the actual match? Well this has last year all over it, just with the teams in reverse. Last year Hawthorn finished second on the ladder, but come finals time got all their players back and thrashed the opposition in the finals matches. Sound like Geelong this year? Well last year Geelong only lost one game for the year and were the dominant team, but were a little shaky in the lead up games to the finals and even only narrowly defeated western bulldogs in the prelim. Sound like the saints this year?

You bet. The team going into this game with the most confidence would no doubt be Geelong, despite the saints being the premier side throughout the year. Either way it should be a cracker. I’m just hoping for a low scoring point kicking game. Oh, and a close one for interests sake.

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