Soccer season probs for premiership
Along with out normal Soccer model
, we also predict odds for the premiership as well as finishing dead last.
Here are the probabilities and associated bets for the premiership after lasts round for several of the leagues
Australian A Leauge
| Team | P(Prem) | Odds | Overlay |
| Gold Coast United | 18.5% | 4 | – |
| Brisbane Roar | 16.4% | 9 | 47.5% |
| Melbourne Victory | 16.4% | 5.3 | – |
| Central Coast Mariners | 15.4% | 11 | 69.2% |
| Sydney | 14.1% | 5.5 | – |
| Perth Glory | 9.1% | 14 | 27.3% |
| Adelaide United | 6.9% | 15 | – |
| Newcastle Jets | 1.1% | 41 | – |
| Wellington Phoenix | 0.9% | 51 | – |
| North Queensland Fury | 0.9% | 101 | – |
So we have decent overlays on Brisbane, Central Coast and Perth for the outsider. More open market than most leagues, generally because of the finals system.
Spain
| Team | P(Prem) | Odds | Overlay |
| Barcelona | 71.4% | 1.72 | 22.9% |
| Real Madrid | 27.8% | 2.3 | – |
| Sevilla | 0.8% | 81 | – |
Barcelona look the good bet here, with a nice 22.9% overlay for them to win the season over Real Madrid.
Italy
| Team | P(Prem) | Odds | Overlay |
| Internazionale | 74.1% | 1.8 | 33.3% |
| Juventus | 17.2% | 2.63 | – |
| Milan | 3.8% | 18 | – |
| Sampdoria | 3.6% | 41 | 46.4% |
| Udinese | 1.1% | 201 | 123.3% |
| Fiorentina | 0.7% | 68 | – |
| Roma | 0.1% | 51 | – |
| Lazio | 0.1% | 251 | – |
Good money again on the favourite, with a reasonable outsider in Sampdoria. An overlay exists on Udinese, but at odds of $201, don’t get your hopes up.
English Premier League
| Team | P(Prem) | Odds | Overlay |
| Manchester United | 37.0% | 3 | 11.1% |
| Liverpool | 31.3% | 7 | 118.8% |
| Chelsea | 23.3% | 2.85 | – |
| Arsenal | 8.3% | 9 | – |
Last year we had big overlays on Man U throughout the season at reasonable odds. This year the big overlay exists on Liverpool, who after a terrible start, seems to be back on the winning side
France
| Team | P(Prem) | Odds | Overlay |
| Bordeaux | 54.1% | 3 | 62.2% |
| Olympique Lyon | 27.8% | 2.3 | – |
| Olympique Marseille | 16.7% | 5.5 | – |
| PSG | 0.9% | 23 | – |
| Stade Rennes | 0.3% | 67 | – |
| Toulouse | 0.3% | 151 | – |
Big overlay on league leader Bordeaux. Their odds keep on shortening with every match
Germany
| Team | P(Prem) | Odds | Overlay |
| Bayern M³nchen | 40.0% | 1.91 | – |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 18.5% | 11 | 103.7% |
| Hamburger SV | 14.1% | 6.5 | – |
| VfL Wolfsburg | 10.3% | 12 | 23.7% |
| Werder Bremen | 7.7% | 19 | 46.2% |
| Schalke 04 | 5.0% | 15 | – |
| Hoffenheim | 3.3% | 26 | – |
| VfB Stuttgart | 0.6% | 41 | – |
| Freiburg | 0.1% | 501 | – |
| Borussia Dortmund | 0.1% | 151 | – |
Early favourite Bayern Munchen has had a very indifferent start to the year, which gives us big overlays on Bayer Leverkusen and other outsiders.
Netherlands
| Team | P(Prem) | Odds | Overlay |
| PSV | 50.0% | 2.75 | 37.5% |
| Ajax | 35.7% | 2.75 | – |
| Twente | 12.0% | 7 | – |
| AZ | 2.8% | 15 | – |
| Utrecht | 0.1% | 48 | – |
50/50 chance by our predictions for PSV to take the top spot at the end of the year
Scotland
| Team | P(Prem) | Odds | Overlay |
| Celtic | 74.1% | 1.57 | 16.3% |
| Rangers | 26.3% | 2.75 | – |
Always a two horse race when it comes to the Scottish Premier League. Small overlay on Celtic to take the crown.
All the free soccer predictions are available here. And be sure to check back regularly for more updates.
