New ATP Analysis from 2005-2011
The ATP tennis season starts in only a few days with the Hopman Cup set to start on new years day. Previously I had a look at how the new model had done last year with good results.
Today, I have the results going back to the start of 2005. Results are shown below, and I’ll give a brief description of them first.
Profits for when the probability was between 0 and 0.1 was obviously negative. With 270 bets and only 5 winners, it is of course highly recommended to leave these matches alone. A lot of the bets are at massive odds, that realistically have little chance to win. This is shown in the odds category where betting on players with odds greater than 7.5 resulted in a loss.
Profits seemed to increase with great overlays and I would imagine that this would further be highlighted if the zero to 0.1 probability bets were not in the sample.
A minimum overlay of 15% might well be the optimum for probabilities 10% to 30%, and in fact that is what the suggested bets and betting history will show.
Prob #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.1 270 5 1.90% $6,080.55 -$3,462.79 -56.90%
0.1 0.2 808 87 10.80% $39,215.37 $373.79 1.00%
0.2 0.3 1209 244 20.20% $82,855.81 $10,993.71 13.30%
0.3 0.4 1482 445 30.00% $136,613.29 $6,016.66 4.40%
0.4 0.5 1715 636 37.10% $206,894.21 $3,776.95 1.80%
0.5 0.6 1377 677 49.20% $230,447.70 $17,601.11 7.60%
0.6 0.7 1137 668 58.80% $222,172.69 $9,743.75 4.40%
0.7 0.8 907 631 69.60% $232,222.07 $17,415.11 7.50%
0.8 0.9 681 536 78.70% $250,970.27 $10,842.32 4.30%
0.9 1 282 248 87.90% $158,676.45 $6,192.29 3.90%
TOTAL 9868 4177 42.30% $1,566,148.40 $79,492.91 5.10%
Odds #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
1 1.4 921 764 83.00% $349,926.76 $15,135.42 4.30%
1.4 1.6 805 559 69.40% $206,926.76 $5,204.13 2.50%
1.6 1.8 799 513 64.20% $159,278.74 $14,859.49 9.30%
1.8 2.2 1100 591 53.70% $185,092.15 $9,983.50 5.40%
2.2 2.5 1013 437 43.10% $149,577.63 $3,975.98 2.70%
2.5 3 1270 489 38.50% $169,065.06 $17,318.02 10.20%
3 4 1428 438 30.70% $156,859.80 $4,848.55 3.10%
4 5 719 157 21.80% $63,775.33 $1,436.71 2.30%
5 7.5 832 153 18.40% $68,628.52 $7,958.27 11.60%
7.5 100 981 76 7.70% $57,017.63 -$1,227.16 -2.20%
TOTAL 9868 4177 42.30% $1,566,148.40 $79,492.91 5.10%
Overlay #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.075 1400 804 57.40% $177,990.66 $8,561.77 4.80%
0.075 0.1 1205 657 54.50% $168,810.25 $9,826.85 5.80%
0.1 0.125 974 504 51.70% $150,450.64 $6,318.34 4.20%
0.125 0.15 825 389 47.20% $136,818.35 $2,120.63 1.50%
0.15 0.2 1256 538 42.80% $196,062.10 $8,848.73 4.50%
0.2 0.25 969 391 40.40% $165,759.81 $8,594.11 5.20%
0.25 0.3 656 231 35.20% $114,563.01 $1,290.95 1.10%
0.3 0.4 868 294 33.90% $152,499.69 $14,343.89 9.40%
0.4 0.6 891 238 26.70% $161,940.72 $10,325.60 6.40%
0.6 4 823 131 15.90% $140,572.74 $9,942.45 7.10%
TOTAL 9867 4177 42.30% $1,565,467.98 $80,173.33 5.10%
Overlay Prob 0-0.2 #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.1 111 10 9.00% $1,360.89 -$435.68 -32.00%
0.1 0.15 90 8 8.90% $1,510.20 -$388.31 -25.70%
0.15 0.2 108 16 14.80% $2,455.59 $703.16 28.60%
0.2 0.25 85 9 10.60% $2,435.31 -$122.03 -5.00%
0.25 0.35 125 11 8.80% $4,150.59 -$410.67 -9.90%
0.35 0.5 176 16 9.10% $8,104.21 -$374.65 -4.60%
0.5 0.6 84 6 7.10% $4,333.08 -$641.25 -14.80%
0.6 0.75 87 7 8.00% $5,096.42 $276.30 5.40%
0.75 1 82 3 3.70% $5,347.98 -$2,486.94 -46.50%
1 4 130 6 4.60% $10,501.65 $791.08 7.50%
TOTAL 1078 92 8.50% $45,295.92 -$3,088.99 -6.80%
Overlay Prob 0.1-0.2 #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.1 96 10 10.40% $1,289.74 -$364.53 -28.30%
0.1 0.15 67 8 11.90% $1,347.95 -$226.06 -16.80%
0.15 0.2 80 16 20.00% $2,168.07 $990.69 45.70%
0.2 0.25 66 8 12.10% $2,202.99 -$145.83 -6.60%
0.25 0.35 90 11 12.20% $3,567.83 $172.09 4.80%
0.35 0.5 138 14 10.10% $7,335.59 -$632.19 -8.60%
0.5 0.6 61 5 8.20% $3,760.12 -$655.05 -17.40%
0.6 0.75 62 6 9.70% $4,328.38 $295.60 6.80%
0.75 1 63 3 4.80% $4,792.98 -$1,931.94 -40.30%
1 4 85 6 7.10% $8,421.71 $2,871.01 34.10%
TOTAL 808 87 10.80% $39,215.37 $373.79 1.00%
Overlay Prob 0.2-0.3 #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.1 227 51 22.50% $5,293.21 -$251.41 -4.70%
0.1 0.15 150 28 18.70% $5,335.41 -$971.12 -18.20%
0.15 0.2 157 35 22.30% $7,593.57 $316.79 4.20%
0.2 0.25 103 24 23.30% $6,092.63 $801.26 13.20%
0.25 0.35 155 31 20.00% $11,192.80 $198.60 1.80%
0.35 0.5 150 31 20.70% $13,427.05 $1,953.83 14.60%
0.5 0.6 62 17 27.40% $6,650.09 $4,512.18 67.90%
0.6 0.75 82 14 17.10% $9,606.00 $1,529.46 15.90%
0.75 1 62 4 6.50% $7,993.57 -$4,009.06 -50.20%
1 4 61 9 14.80% $9,671.47 $6,913.19 71.50%
TOTAL 1209 244 20.20% $82,855.81 $10,993.71 13.30%
Overlay Prob 0.3-0.4 #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.1 301 108 35.90% $10,964.17 $990.40 9.00%
0.1 0.15 238 76 31.90% $13,474.79 $307.47 2.30%
0.15 0.2 196 54 27.60% $14,726.02 -$1,086.34 -7.40%
0.2 0.25 184 55 29.90% $16,533.88 $670.11 4.10%
0.25 0.35 212 69 32.50% $23,528.11 $4,894.55 20.80%
0.35 0.5 173 50 28.90% $24,104.62 $3,923.07 16.30%
0.5 0.6 46 10 21.70% $7,211.39 -$241.99 -3.40%
0.6 0.75 55 12 21.80% $9,778.40 $551.16 5.60%
0.75 1 49 9 18.40% $9,734.73 -$306.07 -3.10%
1 4 28 2 7.10% $6,557.17 -$3,685.71 -56.20%
TOTAL 1482 445 30.00% $136,613.29 $6,016.66 4.40%
Overlay Prob 0.3-0.4 #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.1 375 151 40.30% $20,286.42 -$406.73 -2.00%
0.1 0.15 336 131 39.00% $27,868.06 -$905.50 -3.20%
0.15 0.2 257 97 37.70% $28,160.57 -$383.43 -1.40%
0.2 0.25 194 74 38.10% $25,864.12 $665.91 2.60%
0.25 0.35 260 97 37.30% $40,834.71 $3,164.18 7.70%
0.35 0.5 163 49 30.10% $31,400.11 -$2,024.05 -6.40%
0.5 0.6 54 16 29.60% $11,811.20 $227.01 1.90%
0.6 0.75 24 5 20.80% $5,708.33 -$1,311.98 -23.00%
0.75 1 27 11 40.70% $7,287.18 $4,892.26 67.10%
1 4 25 5 20.00% $7,673.52 -$140.71 -1.80%
TOTAL 1715 636 37.10% $206,894.21 $3,776.95 1.80%
Both of the last two tables show “Overlay Prob 0.3-0.4”
I suspect the latter one should be for probs of 40%+ ?
ahh yes you are right hareeba. the last one is probs 40%-50%
Hello! I’m french. I have a passion for sportbettings. I just discover your website which seems very intersting. Please, Could you explain what you mean by “overlay”? I’ve tried to find the definition on the web, but I haven’t found it.
I’m sorry for my english, which is quite unperfect.
Hi parieurweb, an overlay is a percentage advantage that you have.
It is calculated as follows: Probability * odds – 1