AFLLive
Australian Football League
Model-based betting analysis · since 2006
Find the price that's wrong.
Sportpunter builds statistical models across 12 competitions, from the AFL and NRL to the NFL, NBA, NHL and EuroLeague. We compare our prices with the bookmakers', flag the overlays, and publish every bet and every result.
Then AU$149/Month (approx US$99/Month). Cancel any time before the trial ends and pay nothing.
20years of published results
12competitions modelled
4markets: H2H, line, totals, props
14days free to try it
Sports we cover
One membership. Every season of the year.
When the footy finishes, the NFL, NBA and NHL are in full swing. A Sportpunter membership follows the calendar, so there's always a model running.
Australian football & rugby league
AFLWLive
AFL Women's
NRLLive
National Rugby League
NRLWLive
NRL Women's
North America
NFLLive
National Football League
NCAAFLive
College football
NBALive
National Basketball Association
NHLLive
National Hockey League
WNBALive
Women's National Basketball Association
NCAABComing
College basketball
England, Europe & the NBL
ESLLive
English Super League (rugby league)
NBLLive
National Basketball League
EuroLeagueFrom 25 Nov
EuroLeague Basketball
How it works
We only bet when the price is wrong.
Every recommendation comes from the same three steps. No tipsters, no gut feel, no hype.
Step 1 · Model
We price every game ourselves
Each sport has its own statistical model, built on years of results and player data. It gives every outcome a probability before we look at the market.
Step 2 · Overlay
We compare with the bookmaker
When the bookmaker's price is bigger than our model says it should be, that's an overlay. Small overlays are ignored.
overlay = probability × price − 1
Step 3 · Stake
We size the bet to the edge
Bigger edges get bigger stakes, using Kelly staking. Every bet is published to members before the game and graded on our results pages afterwards.
The record
Twenty years, all of it public.
We've published every model bet since 2006, good runs and bad. Check the results yourself before you join.
| 2026 market | Bets | Return |
|---|---|---|
| NRLW Line | 49 | +27.2% |
| NRL Head-to-head (Rd 1–18) | 49 | +16.9% |
| AFL Line (Rd 1–15) | 72 | +16.6% |
| NHL Team markets | 31 | +15.7% |
| AFL Disposal unders (props) | 223 | +15.7% |
| NRL Totals | 16 | +12.5% |
| NRLW Head-to-head | 47 | +8.2% |
| AFL Head-to-head (Rd 1–11) | 49 | +7.4% |
| NRL Line (Rd 1–18) | 12 | +6.2% |
| NBL Line | 29 | +4.2% |
| WNBA Player Props | 746 | +2.7% |
| NBL Totals | 22 | −2.6% |
| NFL Team markets | 113 | −10.3% |
| AFLW Totals | 40 | −13.9% |
| AFLW Line | 52 | −16.8% |
| NBL Head-to-head | 23 | −22.8% |
| NRLW Totals | 37 | −30.2% |
| AFLW Head-to-head | 47 | −40.8% |
| All official bets | 1,657 | +2.7% |
Return = profit ÷ total amount bet. Every official 2026 bet from 1 Jan to 2 Nov 2026, updated weekly. AFL and NRL head-to-head and line count the part of the season we recommend betting (AFL H2H to Round 11, AFL line to Round 15, NRL to Round 18). Models we only paper-track are not included. Past results do not guarantee future returns.
+8.7%AFL head-to-head and line, 2017–2026, inside the round guide (1,047 bets)
+7.5%NRL head-to-head and line, 2017–2026, inside the round guide (1,723 bets)
+9.1%AFL head-to-head and line, full seasons 2005–2016
Who's behind it
Built by a statistician, not a tipster.
Sportpunter is run by Jonathan Lowe, who studied statistics to honours and masters level and has spent two decades building sports models and machine-learning systems.
Every model is tested on years of historical data before it goes live, then tracked in public once it does. When a market stops working, we say so and stop betting it.
Membership
Try every model free for 14 days.
Sportpunter membership
AU$149 / month
(approx US$99/Month)
After a 14-day free trial. Cancel before it ends and you pay nothing.
- Suggested bets for every sport we cover, with stakes
- Full model predictions and overlays, not just the bets
- Player prop probabilities and group markets
- Season simulations, ladders and futures
- Bet alerts by Discord and email
- The full results history to download and analyse